How Trump Beats Hillary in the General Election

[idea5]

Millennials
Exit polls showing 70-90% Sanders support amongst 18-30 year olds. Can Hillary motivate young voters to get out the vote? Obama was able to mobilize this demographic to the polls, but turnout from young people isn’t a guarantee.

Source:http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2016/02/20/bernie-sanders-millennials-young-voters-hillary-clinton-democratic-primary-column/80474592/

Republicans are motivated to vote against Hillary
Republicans *really* don’t like the Clintons, or specifically, Hillary. A lot of this anger is misplaced, but there’s a passion. Disdain for Hillary could be a huge motivator to Republican voters.
Source: http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2015/09/exclusive-republicans-really-hate-hillary-clinton


Hillary’s “likeablility” problem
Remember when Obama said Hillary was “likable enough”? Hillary’s favorability is on a constant decline. Her favorability is currently as low as 38% according to the 3/3-3/6 NBC/WSJ poll. Honesty and trustworthiness are real problems and are at their lowest ever according to the Washington Post.

Source: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/08/hillary-clintons-honest-and-trustworthy-numbers-are-lower-than-ever-it-might-not-matter/

Gaffes/Revisionism.
Just the past few days angered large swaths of the population affected by HIV/AIDs and looked *really* bad when her criticisms of Bernie’s role in 90’s health care reform were debunked (he was literally standing behind her). Remember Hillary’s “under sniper fire” or the Lewinsky “vast right wing conspiracy” quotes? So do all the wing-nuts and you’d hear about these every single day of a general election.

Transcripts.
The issue doesn’t disappear in a general. Trump releases his…and then what?


FBI indictment.
Probably a low risk of it going anywhere, but it will be looming for the coming weeks and months and will provide sufficient fuel to further decrease support with independents.

Clinton Global Initiative donations.
Bernie hasn’t attacked it, but the Initiative’s donations from foreign governments raise many red flags. In particular, see dealings with Saudi Arabia.
Source: http://www.ibtimes.com/clinton-foundation-donors-got-weapons-deals-hillary-clintons-state-department-1934187

Populism vs establishment.
Trump appears to be the nominee. Trump is running on anti-establishment platform. Hillary is literally the establishment. Look what the “outsider” R’s did to Jeb(!) and Lindsey Graham in the R primaries.

Iraq.
Trump uses Iraq as a foil to criticize Bush II.
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/06/hillary-clintons-formidable-strengths-and-fatal-weakness/373740/

Libya.
Gadhafi was committing heinous acts, but the power vacuum left after we ousted him has created a humanitarian crisis. What happened “the day after” is a clear political target. The right has been in a Benghazi news cycle since 2012, and nothing has stuck, but that won’t stop Trump from using it as a rallying cry to mobilize the right.
Source: http://www.cnn.com/2015/06/08/politics/hillary-clinton-libya-election-2016/index.html

NAFTA (and free trade in general).
Trump has rallied his base around an anti-free trade message. NAFTA was supposed to create large markets for American goods in Mexico. It didn’t, it mostly created a market in Mexico for American jobs.

Industry relations.
Trump could easily exploit Hillary’s vast network of corporate sponsors and collaborators. At times Trump actually sits to the left of Hillary on industry regulation, particularly when talking about Big Pharma. Trump is running as the “self-funded” candidate, untainted by industry, which would be in stark contrast to Hillary.

Hillarycare and “Universal Coverage”.
Hillarycare was a large, public policy failure. It also wasn’t single payer, it was an employer mandate. Many still have low-grade coverage with very high deductibles. Trump is vague on details, but he has a history of supporting actual universal healthcare.
Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-supports-national-health-care-2011-4?op=1


______________________

I post this as a Democrat with significant concern over Donald Trump's ability to win an election. I've tried to be fair to Hillary. I respect her, I just don't see how she's a strong candidate against a populist with name recognition.

I ask us all to look at movements, trends, and do a bit of scenario planning.

And if you're rooting for Bernie, you can phonebank from home easily: https://www.berniepb.com/

[Buzz Clik]

1. Will Trump-hating Republicans be able to hold their noses and vote for a socialist?

None that I know. Thus far, much to the delight of the Sanders crowd, all the neocons who have commented on this have supported Clinton over Trump, not Sanders over Trump.

[SCantiGOP]

2. Correct, buzz click

But expect to catch a load of crap for your post.

[Buzz Clik]

5. "expect to catch a load of crap for your post." That would be normal.

[daleanime]

9. Since there can be no disagreement....

But make sure to have a lovely day anyways.

[LonePirate]

3. That's a highly sourced post from someone who just joined the site today.

Hmmm...

[idea5]

4. Long time lurker, first time poster.

[uppityperson]

6. So do we just give up?

[idea5]

10. Nope :)

[Nye Bevan]

7. And don't forget all the women who will flock to vote for Donald "blood coming out of her wherever"

Trump, as opposed to voting for the first ever female presidential candidate.

[21st Century Poet]

8. Voter psychology is not strictly party-centric.

I find voter psychology endlessly interesting.

The polls indicate that Mr Sanders would be a better bet in the general election than Mrs Clinton.

The polls also indicate that Mr Trump is less electable than any of the other Republican candidates.

Voters don't seem to be overly concerned about overall electability and making sure that their party wins.

The data seems to point towards voters choosing the candidate they like best regardless of national polls and how much that candidate is disliked by the rest of the nation. Some people even insist on voting for someone who has already dropped out of the race "because that's their guy."