Delegate calculator (updated with latest results)

[DCBob]

Last edited Sat Apr 23, 2016, 10:52 AM - Edit history (4)

Edit: I updated the defaults based on latest polling and I now have Hillary going to the convention with a 351 delegate lead. Still short of what is needed to clinch but the Super's will easily put her over the top on the first ballot.



======================

I created a simple delegate calculator that I have made available to the public. You can access it here:

http://54.85.212.73/demdelcalc/

From playing around with it a bit it appears it might be difficult for Hillary to gain the total of 2383 needed to clinch with just pledged delegates. California though could be the key. CA could send her over the top with a big percent Hillary's way. But my best guess is that this thing is going to go to the convention undecided and the SuperD's will put her over the top.

Anyway feel free to play around with calculator and let me know if you run into any problems or have any suggestions for improvements.

Enjoy!
Bob

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. Ah snicker

you do know that polling data, (which should be questioned anyway since this year it is not that reliable) shows CA tightening, and fast?

I just had to go to Excelsior in Mexico City to find that data though.

[DCBob]

6. Can post a link to the poll you are referring to?

Thanks.

[nadinbrzezinski]

12. sure

was looking for something else incidentally

http://www.excelsior.com.mx/global/2015/10/07/1049925

[DCBob]

13. The dates in that article make no sense.

I think it's referring to the CA Field poll taken about 3 months ago where Hillary led 46-35.

http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2522.pdf

There has not been much polling done in CA so its hard to say what is going on there. I would think NV and TX were clues to how things might go in CA. BTW, Bernie will need to win CA big to have any chance at all of winning this thing.

[nadinbrzezinski]

14. Reverse the date

In mexico the dates are day, month, year



by the way they are from Oct of last year. And while it sucks as a poll, not recent... so feel free to discount. it makes me wonder why we really don't have that much polling. I have gotten calls, mostly for local issues, let me correct this, all are for local issues, None for the presidential. We are media, we refuse to answer any polls.

[Ruby the Liberal]

7. His default has CA at 50-50

You can change the projections on any of the upcoming states and it will cascade a recalculation.

[NurseJackie]

2. Impressive work, DCBob!

[DCBob]

3. Thanks.

[Ruby the Liberal]

4. Thats really cool - thank you!

[DCBob]

5. Welcome.

[DesertRat]

8. Cool!

[DCBob]

11. Thanks.

[Skid Rogue]

9. Well, this is the coolest thing I've seen all week.

Thanks so much.

[DCBob]

10. HA! Thanks.

[Ruby the Liberal]

15. Can this be reset back to the defaults

It seems to be holding all changes, even with a hard refresh?

[DCBob]

16. Yes. I can add that.

I purposely set it to remember one's choices but yes resetting makes sense.

[Ruby the Liberal]

17. Actually, the original way is probably better

for tracking personal predictions. I just changed too many and then forgot which states I altered.

[DCBob]

20. Just added a reset button at the bottom.

The thing is it just resets to my predictions.. so those could be way off.

[Ruby the Liberal]

24. Perhaps, but its a baseline

Glad you gave the option for both!

I love gadgets like this and you did a great job in how it works. This will be fun as the focus shifts to new states.

Thanks again!

[DCBob]

25. Yes, I will keep it updated with results and better guesses and better polling.

Glad its helpful.

[SheenaR]

18. This is cool Bob

What's weirder is on my first go through I had

HRC 2022
BS 2020

+2

If it's ever that close we are in for a
Crazy convention.

Partisanship aside. Very cool calculator

[DCBob]

22. Glad you found it useful.

The convention could be interesting.

[bigwillq]

19. That's really cool.

Where are you getting your HC, BS% FIGURES from? Just a guess? From polling available?
I live in CT. Interresting to see BS up 10 in your calculations. Haven't seem many numbers from CT at this point.

Thanks

D'oh! I see that you posted a disclaimer and indeed said "best guess". I can't read I guess. Lol

[DCBob]

21. Thanks. The original numbers are my best guesses based on polling and other factors.

CT for example.. there is no polling but it seems it fits Bernie's best demographics.

[bigwillq]

23. Obama won CT in 2008

but it seems like HRC is getting Obama voters in 2016, so CTs primary should be interesting.

[DCBob]

26. Yeah, I really dont have a good feel on how that one is going to go.

It will be interesting.

[drray23]

27. Thank you!

Very nice calculator. 538 has a variation of that where they have delegates targets. Yours allows for testing those scenarios.

[DCBob]

28. Thanks. I have not found anything like this anywhere on the web..

which is why I created it.

[Garrett78]

29. 2026 pledged delegates constitutes a majority.

So, if it ends up 2169 to 1878, it's over. Unless Sanders hasn't already conceded and the superdelegates go to Sanders en masse, and that's not going to happen.

Cool calculator. I want to see what happens on Tuesday before I bother plugging in numbers. If Clinton's ahead by 350+ (or even 300+) after Tuesday, it'll be extremely likely that she becomes the nominee. Your projection that Sanders will cut into Clinton's lead by 72 over the course of the 8 contests that follow March 15 seems reasonable to me. That's the most promising stretch for Sanders on the primary calendar, which goes to show how unlikely it is that he can win. 72 would merely amount to a temporary dent in Clinton's lead. But, like I said, I want to see just how big Clinton's lead is after Tuesday. If Sanders has an exceptionally good day, that stretch of 8 contests might give Sanders an even bigger boost...then, New York and other big states might be in play.

[DCBob]

31. Yes, good point.

I would agree that if Hillary has the majority going into the convention she wins. The supers will put her over the top.

I also agree the results from Tues will be critical to determine how much drama we expect to have down the road.

Thanks!

[Karmadillo]

30. Thank you.

[DCBob]

32. Welcome.

[Barack_America]

33. Thanks. That was fun to play with.

[DCBob]

34. Very welcome.

Glad you liked it!

[DCBob]

35. Updated with 3/15 results.

Not all delegates have been awarded for 3/15.

It looks like Hillary will go to the convention with about a 300 delegate lead based on my best guess estimates.

[morningfog]

36. Great! Saves me time on my xcel sheet, lol.

FWIW, I don't see a realistic way for Hillary to get to 2,383 on PDs alone (unless Bernie drops out). Nor do I see her getting to 2,026 until June 7.

[DCBob]

37. Yes, I agree with you on that.

I assume the supers will put her over the top at the convention.

[morningfog]

38. I assume so, too. One minor edit for your calculator:

If one candidate gets 85% or more, the other is not viable and gets zero delegates. I don't know if you can include that. Not that it matters or is likely to happen. But, just putting it out there if someone wanted to play with so crazy ideas of Bernie getting all the delegates in a couple states and maintaining in others.

[DCBob]

39. Right, I actually dont have that programmed in there.

I will fix that later. Thanks!

[Lucinda]

40. TY! Very cool work!

[DCBob]

41. Very welcome.

[DCBob]

42. Defaults updated with latest polling.

Hillary now projected to have a 400+ delegate lead going into the convention.

[DCBob]

43. Updated with 3/22 results.

Hillary still going to win!!

[Tarc]

44. Go to demrace.com, there's sliders and boxes where you can adjust the delegates to whatever you like

http://demrace.com/

PS - I don't mean to dump on the work you did. I worked up a little spreadsheet too the other day, started to do some dropboxes and such, until I came across this.

[DCBob]

45. Nice.

I still like mine better.. old school.

[DCBob]

46. Updated with latest results and polling.