792 delegates to be awarded Tuesday March 15

[kennetha]

How many do you think Sanders will win?

How many do you think Hillary will win?

If they split the delegates 60/40 --- which I think would be a very good night for Bernie -- she gets 475, he gets 317, she increases her delegate lead by 158.

About the worst I see her doing is splitting the non-Flordia delegates and taking 60% of the Florida delegates. That would still give her 420 to his 372 -- a gain of 48 delegates, not huge, but significant.

If she really kicks his butt in all 5 states -- which I don't really see happening -- we could be talking a very substantial delegate gain. But I think there is a least one, and maybe two, Michigan like surprises coming.

What I don't see is any New Hampshire type wins for Bernie.

[litlbilly]

1. dream on

[kennetha]

3. What's your prediction?

[JonLeibowitz]

6. Why do we have to have predictions of our own in order to recognize your post

as simply fantasy which is impossible to substantiate. Polling is unreliable, the only thing that matters is who turns out to vote. I have no idea, so I choose not to speculate, and the results will be what they are. We can still point out speculation when we see it, though.

[Garrett78]

12. I think kennetha gave a very realistic range (48-158).

Polling can be unreliable, but quality polling isn't as unreliable as some have been claiming. Granted, caucuses and open primaries are tougher to predict.

Anyway, many have speculated that Sanders will do very well in the 8 contests between March 15 and New York. It's one thing to say Sanders (or Clinton) will make big gains. It's another thing to demonstrate that one has thought about the specifics. It's not unreasonable to ask people exactly where they think the race will stand, delegate-wise, after March 15th or heading into New York, especially after they offer up vague speculation. For instance, heading into the New York primary, does the person think Clinton's lead will be smaller than it is currently? If so, how much smaller? Also, does the person expect Sanders to win New York? If so, by how much?

It's also not unreasonable, by the way, to point out the hypocrisy of people touting how well they expect Sanders to do in the reddest of red states (ID, UT, WY, MT, AK, etc.) when so much as been made of Clinton's "red" state victories.

[JonLeibowitz]

13. I agree on all points. I refuse to speculate however and encourage accountability

of those who do speculate.

Th "red" state victories meme is pretty pathetic, agreed. I do think there is something to the fact that the deep south is pretty conservative as Democrats go, so it is not wholly unsurprising. It's been posted before, but the DLC (which exists to exterminate progressives, not my words but those of Clinton advisor Bill Curry) set up the southern primaries to vote first to ensure a centrist nominee.

[Garrett78]

15. I think it's actually Sanders...

...who will end up accumulating a majority of his delegates from "red" states.

Of course, no state is completely "red" or completely "blue." A point I tried to make here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511460282

[JonLeibowitz]

17. Right, I think the red states thing is a silly idea, and you debunked it very well.

At the same time, differences do exist ideologically in the electorates, region by region. If you asked anyone 1 year ago before any of this Hillary vs. Bernie business came to DU, wouldn't most have said that the Deep South's Democratic electorate is more conservative than many others. Red state vs. Blue state is one thing, and has to do with how many Republicans there are, but it ignores the critical question of how conservative / progressive the Democratic voters are. I would wager that Iowa's Democratic voters are more liberal than Louisiana's. Don't forget that much of the deep south is still very religious, too. At least for LGBT rights that wouldn't translate to progressivism.

[Garrett78]

19. Religiosity aside, I wouldn't be so sure about the IA vs. LA comparison.

And terms like "conservative" and "liberal" are rather ambiguous. As I wrote in that other thread of mine, time will tell which popular narrative is more in line with reality. Let's see what happens in the 5 March 15 states. And in AZ, NM, WA, OR, CA, WI, NY, PA, MD, NJ, DE, CT, RI, CA and HI. If the narrative about Clinton not being able to win outside of the Deep South (with maybe a few exceptions) is true, then Sanders ought to win the vast majority of the delegates among those 20 states. Time will tell.

[Uglystick]

2. Bernie will score at least 550 delegates

Count on that for 3/15 due to recent events.

[kennetha]

4. he's going to take 69% of the delegates?

WOW!

[Uglystick]

5. Yessir. It's possible.

Thus begins the trouble for Clinton's campaign. Funds will dry up. Again.

How far will Clinton go after sputtering, when people are already waking up to the bullshit Clinton is pulling in terms of voter disenfranchisement?

[Garrett78]

18. I'm not a betting man, but I'd make an exception if you're game.

Name any amount you want and I'll bet you Sanders doesn't win 550 or more of the 792 delegates. Any amount. A million? I don't have a million but it doesn't matter.

[virtualobserver]

7. Hillary has had one of the worst political weeks that I've seen in recent years

Only the Flying Spaghetti Monster knows how badly it has hurt her.

[kennetha]

8. This bad?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_democratic_presidential_primary-3556.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-5175.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/il/illinois_democratic_presidential_primary-5567.html

[virtualobserver]

9. those polls remind me of michigan.....

gaffe after gaffe this week from Hillary....might be worse than michigan

[Recursion]

10. The NH-style wins for Sanders start up on the 22nd

ID, UT, AK, HI, WA, WI, WY... Clinton's only potential bright spot for two weeks there is AZ, and I wouldn't put very much money on her even winning it.

NY is April 19th, and should be a good day for her, but that will come after 2 really brutal weeks.

[Garrett78]

14. I think HI, WA and WI will be closer than NH was.

Regardless, those 8 states have a total of 435 delegates. New York alone has 291. Pennsylvania has 210. Maryland has 118.

I think Sanders will be doing well to be no further behind heading into New York than he is currently (208, I believe, is Clinton's pledged delegate lead as of this moment). In other words, I think his gains over the course of those 8 aforementioned contests will *maybe* cancel out Clinton's gains on March 15th.

[Fearless]

11. If you believe that, I'll tell you another falsehood... Nancy Reagan supported LGBT people.

[Jester Messiah]

16. You've got guts...

Making predictions after what happened in Michigan.

[NurseJackie]

20. Hillary will continue to pull ahead. Bernie will ...

... continue to fall further and further behind. It's all about the delegates. She who had the most delegates wins the nomination. He who has the fewest will return to the Senate.

I'm looking forward to hearing Bernie's endorsement of Hillary. In addition to all the endorsements she ALREADY has, his will be the most important one of all.

[Garrett78]

21. I want to see what happens on Tuesday first.

I'm standing by the prediction I made many months ago that the race will essentially be over by mid-March, but recent events do give me pause and I want to see what happens on Tuesday before determining if I need to re-think Sanders's chances.

[bigwillq]

22. Big day.

Can't wait to see what happens. Exciting either way.