2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumYouGov drops a load of state polls. Pleasant results.
Data a bit stale, but consistent with other more current indicators.
Iowa:50-46 Obama
AZ: 52-43 Romney
Mich: 52-42 Obama
Cali: 58-39 Obama
Conn: 53-39 Obama
Nevada: 50-45 Obama
NC: 49-48 Romney
VA: 46-45 Obama
WI: 51-47 Obama
Ohio 50-46 Obama
PA 51-44 Obama
Minn: 52-44 Obama
IL: 58-38 Obama
Mass: 55-36 Obama
MO:52-42 Romney
http://today.yougov.com/latest-findings/
VirginiaTarheel
(823 posts)Huge news
Shivering Jemmy
(900 posts)polls a few days stale.
pollster not top tier.
But data is data.
Mutiny In Heaven
(550 posts)Very good in the UK and I've just read that they ranked 2nd in terms of "Likely Voter" polls in 2008. Ahead of Gallup, by the way.
Lex
(34,108 posts)so that's a big plus.
awake
(3,226 posts)Alekei_Firebird
(320 posts)A lot of polls are crazy, but I think there have now been at least 4 polls these past couple of days giving Obama 4-5 pt. in Ohio.
flamingdem
(39,321 posts)can't get hinky on Nov. 6th
powergirl
(2,393 posts)thanks for the post!
JiminyJominy
(340 posts)Do the numbers indicate people who have already voted? Meaning is "Have you early voted?" one of the questions in the poll and so that number is then factored into the poll?
Or are the polls completely of people who have not yet voted?
So for instance, in a state like Iowa where by my own (completely arbitrary) math and calculations I feel like about 12% of the electorate already voted and of that 12% 60% voted for Obama. Has that 60% been factored into the poll or is the poll mostly made up of people who are yet to vote.
Obviously, its great news if these polls are not accounting for the early vote as Obama dominated that. And if thats the case, then some of these states in which Obama is showing a 4 point lead in reality is a 6 point lead accounting for those who already voted.
Just wondering.
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,437 posts)It's been an interesting experience but I've noticed that their political polls seem to have a right-wing slant to them, almost like right-wing push-polls but, hey, I'll settle for some good-sounding polls from them. I'll take just about any good numbers to feel better at the moment.
Edit: I don't recall having recently seen any "early voting" questions.
JiminyJominy
(340 posts)i would think they'd have a slight right lean to it.
then again, we are living in an age of polls and as the years go on more and more importance is going to be put on the polls and everyone is going to want to be right in the end so i think eventually we will start to see "leans" get less and less in polls.
speedoo
(11,229 posts)Ahead everywhere except NC and down only 1 there.
Heck, I think those polls are fantastic.
Doctor_J
(36,392 posts)was pretty outrageous last week. Here's hoping Rmoney's lead in MO doesn't carry the for "Legitimate Rape" Todd.
demgrrrll
(3,590 posts)in between.
JiminyJominy
(340 posts)an answer to my early voting question from above?
i'm really wondering if these poll numbers are possibly even better since early voting was so much for Obama.
MSMITH33156
(879 posts)up 1 in Florida, 48-47
Comrade_McKenzie
(2,526 posts)Azathoth
(4,611 posts)Similar to what RAND is doing I think. Not sure how that affects the significance of the numbers.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)Romneybot moved his staffers out of the state and into Ohio and Iowa.
MN and NV will go for Obama.
robertpaulsen
(8,632 posts)They also had Obama up in Florida by one but does Real Clear Politics mention this in their Latest Election Polls from yesterday or today? Of course not!