Survey USA: Obama ahead of Romney by 'only' 14-points in Washington State

[WI_DEM]

Buoyed by his debate performance two weeks ago, Republican Mitt Romney now trails President Obama by “only” 14 points in blue-state Washington, according to a new SurveyUSA poll for KING-5 news.

Unlike the slogan (“Fifty-four, Forty or fight”) used by candidate James K. Polk to win the 1844 presidential election, however, there’s no sign Romney will put up a fight even though he has gained six points and trails Obama 54-40 percent. Romney comes here only to raise money that he will spend elsewhere.


The SurveyUSA poll of 543 voters, taken Oct. 12-14, shows a slight narrowing in the race for Governor.

Democrat Jay Inslee enjoys a 47-44 percent lead over Republican Rob McKenna, down from a six-point advantage in the previous polls.

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2012/10/16/romney-mckenna-gain-still-trail-king-5-poll/

[OhZone]

1. Toss up! lulz nt

[TroyD]

2. I understand what you mean

But I think it's because any decrease in support for Obama and any increase for Romney is potentially relevant right now.

It can be indicative of a general decline across the country for Obama from the heights he was at a few weeks ago.

In fact, I think I was the one who posted the last SurveyUSA poll here for WASHINGTON a few weeks ago and it showed Obama at the same level of support he got in 2008, or even slightly higher.

So I think that's what they are getting at.

[WI_DEM]

4. Actually all I did was quote their article.

They are the ones who put "only" in quotation marks.

[valerief]

3. Neck and neck!

For giraffes.

[CobaltBlue]

5. Singles, not doubles

Washington carried for President Obama, in 2008, by over 17 percentage points. For Mitt Romney to uinseat the president, Washington would see its margin go along with the tide. So it would come down to single digits, not be as much as 14 points for the president.

There have been polling margins, referring to national and some statewide ones, that do not make sense.

[TroyD]

7. Obama will win Washington

That's not the issue.

It's by what MARGIN that is important.

The margin by which Obama is polling in blue states is relevant not because he's in danger of losing them, but because they can reflect erosion in other more competitive states if he is also down in blue states.

That's why I said on the MA thread I posted that it was good that Obama had not gone down in Ras since the last MA poll.

This WA poll shows some erosion since the last one, but it could just be statistical noise as Nate Silver says.

[amborin]

10. Nate Silver has spoken to this issue

in several of his articles discussing the relationship between national and state polls, and why they each can
be informative in their respective ways and whether the former can preduct the latter.

But whether the relationship holds up between margins in blue states and margins in swing states is an
open question. It boils down to comparing the demographics and they may not be comparable.

[davidpdx]

13. He'll win Oregon too

But maybe not as much as in Washington.

[CobaltBlue]

14. I know

The margin by which Obama is polling in blue states is relevant not because he's in danger of losing them, but because they can reflect erosion in other more competitive states if he is also down in blue states.

That is what I am thinking. But I'm taking into account the entire map from 2008. All states and their margins. Gives context.

For President Obama to win re-election, the "blue" states (since 1988, which is applicable to Washington, and 1992, applicable to California; considering all that haven't voted GOP since) … need to perform margins comparable to 2008 for whatever they'll exactly be on Election Day 2012.

[ProSense]

6. The previous poll was posted

here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251116976

It was up 4 points from the early September poll: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c1eccb63-bd54-455c-bf33-b3d78bb1ec93

I think Obama will win WA.

[TroyD]

8. Yup!

That's the one I posted!

Obama is down a few points from that poll, but it may not be significant.

[FVZA_Colonel]

9. Yeah, he ain't winning here.

If he does, it would have to be part of a 70%+ national tidal wave for Romney.

I'm much more concerned about McKenna becoming governor.

[progressivebydesign]

11. McKenna is such a weasel!! nt

[FVZA_Colonel]

12. Didn't he write a bunch of anti-marriage equality propaganda into the ballot language for R-74

(though it was stripped out)?

If that doesn't prove that his reputation as a "moderate" is complete garbage I don't know what would?

[VirginiaTarheel]

15. PPP's WA poll is an outlier

No way O is up by only five in WA. PPP seems to be slipping