I Wish The President's Pollster Didn't Pick A Fight With Gallup

[DemocratSinceBirth]

IMHO, he should have said the campaign does not respond to public polls but for those that are interested in assessing the state of the race they should look at all the polls with the realization that any one poll is just a data point and make their own conclusions.

[ProSense]

1. I don't care, the poll was old and flawed. Is the implication

that Gallup is retaliating? Why is it a "fight" to call out the polling?

Romney is taking issue with Reuters:

The Romney Campaign Shredded A New Poll That Shows Obama Destroying Mitt Romney Among Early Voters
http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-romney-early-vote-poll-voters-reuters-ipsos-2012-10

PPP also showed Obama ahead in Ohio early voting (http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021533902)

Presidential Debates Rarely Game-Changers
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110674/Presidential-Debates-Rarely-GameChangers.aspx

Seriously, Kerry won every debate and saw no such swing, much less a permanent one.

Mitt's alleged debate bounce is inconsistent (not showing up in every poll, and some polls show it ending) and likely more than any other candidate including Clinton.

Gallup showed the numbers trending back to Obama, and now it's moving back to Mitt?

You don't get a surge, have it recede and return.



http://www.gallup.com/poll/157955/romney-obama-among-likely-voters.aspx

The Daily/Kos poll was garbage (see the caveat issued with the poll). The Gallup poll is the only poll now showing a resurgence after the bounce faded.

WaP/ABC has Obama up 3 points. IBD erased Romney's 5-point lead, and now shows Obama up 1.6. Reuters/Ipsos had Romney up 3 points on Thursday, and now the President is leading by 3 points. Rand, bounce gone. Rasmussen has been shifting back and forth within a point or two.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. I Didn't Like The Poll. I Have Huge Problems With It For The Obvious Reasons.

But the president's pollster doesn't need to comment on public polls.

[ProSense]

4. Both camps have been doing it for the entire campaign. n/t

[ClusterFreak]

3. I'm fucking glad they picked a fight. n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. I Will "Fight" Anybody If There's A Cause And A Benefit

What's the cause being fought here and how do we benefit from getting in a fighr with a public pollster.

And should the president's campaign take on Rasmussen.

It's just a poll...Disputing it only brings them more attention.

[Azathoth]

6. It was an act of fear

Gallup is respected within the politerati, and their numbers, particularly the ones showing the collapse of O's lead among women, were devastating. I think the campaign started getting some pointed phone calls from important people after those numbers hit, and they felt they had to do something proactive.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Five Points

1) That poll concluded on the 11th so it's already old.
2) Gallup's sterling reputation is often contradicted by their less than stellar results.
3) I will believe there is no gender gap when there is a polling consensus there is no gender gap
4) Their likely voter screen is overly narrow.
5) I can piss on Gallup. It doesn't look good when the president's pollster does.

[Maximumnegro]

9. Also I know you're fighting the good fight

but considering the huge lack of positive threads on this forum (surprising honestly), this one doesn't help and not even necessary really. Just sayin'!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. It's Heart Felt

I just feel that by picking a public fight with Gallup we are giving them too much credit.

What the Hell makes them so great?

Because they have been around forever?


So has K Mart.

[Azathoth]

12. I don't necessarily disagree with your points

But it's not a question of what I think. It's a question of what the movers and shakers -- big donors and news media figures -- think. Gallup is well-known and respected, and their numbers can create and/or drive a narrative.

Bottom line is a presidential campaign doesn't go after the most well-known pollster in America unless they are very worried that people, particularly important people, may be buying into what that pollster is saying.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. I Concede Your Point

As a social scientist, albeit one with an admittedly huge bias, I am not intimidated by Gallup's outsized reputation. I guess you can cherry pick one bad poll here and one bad poll there and conclude this pollster or that pollster is not very good. But that's just an argument for looking at all of them.

[Maximumnegro]

8. The base wanted them to fight back. So...

they're fighting back.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Well, If It Makes Them And You Happy I Will Be Happy Too

There are plenty of polls to be happy about.


I just want to choose my battles wisely.