IBD/TIPP Poll It's Obama (D) 47% Romney ($) 46%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.tipponline.com/home/tracking-poll/todays-daily-tracking-poll

[Maximumnegro]

1. I will avoid sarcasm since some people seem

to lack the ability discern it or anything that isn't bad news in general

I'll just say: more good news to go with other good news.

and Ohio's voter suppression now lifted. Sweet.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. One Poll Is Just A Data Point. Nothing More...Nothing Less...

You really have to look at all of em...


I saw the Gallup numbers. I'm not ready to jump yet...They aren't infallible. No pollster is...That's why I laugh when someone says this pollster or that pollster is the best...

[WI_DEM]

3. True. What I see when I look at today's Gallup numbers is this:

the three day job numbers are beginning to grow again after a steady decline over the last 10 days. Today it's 49-45 approval up 1 from yesterday and disapproval down 2. In my mind this MIGHT mean that Obama has begun to recover some ground in the last three days which are not yet noticeable in the 7-day poll of likely & registered voters.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. It's Just One Poll

Because of Gallup's gaudy history we pay too much attention to it. They have been wrong in the past...

[Drunken Irishman]

5. People forget that Gallup completely whiffed on the 2010 midterm elections...

And they weren't very accurate in 2008, either, as they had Obama winning by 11 points in their final poll.

[TroyD]

6. But Gallup is the most famous pollster of all

So unfortunately its pro-Romney numbers are going to get a lot of attention.

And this is the biggest lead Romney has had in Gallup in months.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Your Concern Is Duly Noted/nt

[Jennicut]

8. It's not the biggest lead he has had in months.

Gallup was RV's all the way up until last week. When it was tied with RV's we had no idea what LV"s are. I think Gallup's LV model favors conservatives whereas Reuters/Ipsos and Tipp/Online might be showing a LV screen of about 2 points. 4 to 5 points is what Gallup is showing. Seems unlikely given the early voting in Iowa and Ohio. If Dems are so unenthusiastic then why the early voting spread in those states? You don't early vote like that if you barely care about the race.

Another thing, even Rasmussen has it as Romney plus 2. Scott Rasmussen has never reported Romney ahead by 4 in the last month. The Rasmussen swing state poll went back to Obama being up by 2 when it had Romney ahead for a few days. That might be a more important #. Reuters and Tipp/Online have Obama ahead. Battleground and ABC/Wash Post also show Obama ahead. Only two polls have Romney ahead by plus 4. Gallup and PPP/SEIU. PPP also showed a crazy Sunday outlier day. That leaves only Gallup. Which leaves questions on their LV model. It was bad in 2008 and bad in 2010. Sometimes you have to sort through all the polls to see the bigger picture. Oh, and even ARG had Obama ahead in Iowa today. Great news.