2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum"Hillary Clinton holding narrowing lead over Bernie Sanders in Ohio, new poll finds"
Link; excerpt:CLEVELAND, Ohio With the Ohio primary less than a week away, ... A Quinnipiac University poll, released Wednesday, of likely Ohio voters found Clinton led Sanders 52 percent percent to 43 percent. The university's last poll, released Feb. 23, had shown Clinton with a 55 percent to 40 percent lead, and with the exception of a Feb. 24 Baldwin Wallace survey showing the race as a virtual tie, polling in Ohio generally has shown Clinton leading by double digits.
...
It's worth noting that Sanders on Tuesday night narrowly won the Democratic primary in neighboring Michigan, even though polling there consistently had shown Clinton with a double-digit lead. Some political observers have asked whether this raises questions about the accuracy of polls in other Midwestern states with open primaries, including Ohio and Illinois, which along with Florida, are among the states that will hold elections on March 15.
Here is a link and graph for the February 24 Baldwin Wallace poll mentioned in today's article, above (in light of the polling discrepancies in Michigan, the Baldwin Wallace poll is likely more accurate):
revbones
(3,660 posts)Hell Hath No Fury
(16,327 posts)narrowing a bit.
Last month she was 55 he was 40, now she is 52 he is 43.
On edit: Oops. It's tough to tell when someone is or isn't being serious around here these days.
revbones
(3,660 posts)PatrickforO
(14,586 posts)sand flowing through her fingers in spite of her best efforts to hold it in.
smiley
(1,432 posts)in an effort to keep calling her the democratic favorite. It's funny and disgusting all at the same time.
Jefferson23
(30,099 posts)TDale313
(7,820 posts)I think Bernie has a really good shot at winning in Ohio.
NWCorona
(8,541 posts)I hope he can pull it off again
kevink077
(365 posts)he has to win Ohio and Florida. Winning Michigan is great but losses in these 2 states will be bad...Ohio should be the easy state.
Vote2016
(1,198 posts)SamKnause
(13,110 posts)I hope Ohio can pull a Michigan !!!
Cirque du So-What
(25,965 posts)Love the early voting.
FlatBaroque
(3,160 posts)I'll go ahead and call it for Bernie. WOOHOO!!
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)WillyT
(72,631 posts)Kalidurga
(14,177 posts)Mufaddal
(1,021 posts)Bernie has tended to over-perform his polling estimates, these results are good but include only Dems (when you factor in Independents, my guess is the odds flip solidly in his favor), and Ohio has an open primary.
grasswire
(50,130 posts)open primary.
Jenny_92808
(1,342 posts)I think Bernie will win again
Le Taz Hot
(22,271 posts)I remember 2004.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Le Taz Hot
(22,271 posts)has Hillary's chances of winning Ohio at 98% so there's hope.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)CorkySt.Clair
(1,507 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)The Mitchell Research poll said Clinton would win Michigan by 37% (66% to 29%) - it was a robo-call poll.
The Target-Insyght poll said Clinton would win Michigan by 32% (62% to 30%) - it was a robo-call poll.
If you graph these robo-call polls, you would think this is how the race would play out:
If you believed the robo-call polls, here is what you would have expected in Iowa:
and New Hampshire:
and Nevada:
and Oklahoma:
and Massachusetts:
These robo-call polls are horribly inaccurate (and they always seem to err in favor of Clinton).
The Hillary crowd is going to continue to post robo-call polls. Just remember how inaccurate they have been in Hillary's favor and don't give those polls any attention.
Likewise, when you see the Hillary crowd blathering about Nate Silver's forecasts, remember that 358 is basing its forecasts on robo-call polls mixed in with the other polling so they have this bias built into the forecast model. Remember, Silver's 538 gave Hillary a 99% chance of winning Michigan. Garbage in, garbage out.
CorkySt.Clair
(1,507 posts)Just wanted to share what I've been reading all day from some Bernie fans.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)falls short of the polls and he meets or exceeds the polls, but the polls rarely understate her appeal or overstate his support.
Zorra
(27,670 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Barack_America
(28,876 posts)It now may be up to Sanders's ground game.
Vote2016
(1,198 posts)much
Jackie Wilson Said
(4,176 posts)And it is very healthy for all of us.
Vote2016
(1,198 posts)Samantha
(9,314 posts)We need to do that by forcing out the Third Way, basically through the election process. We are the FDR Dems, and we have a heritage of Democratic programs to protect. The Third Way wants to privatize, cut or just eliminate the planks of the New Deal and other later legislation. Bernanke himself said in an interview I saw on CSPAN a few years ago (3?) that the act establishing Social Security could just be repealed....
Sam
Vote2016
(1,198 posts)Mnpaul
(3,655 posts)I seem to have heard it someplace before. I expect it might become quite common.
Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)
Chichiri This message was self-deleted by its author.