What eveyone was waiting for Daily Kos/PPP: Obama 46 (47) Romney 50 (49)

[S_E_Fudd]

Breakdown by day!

Friday (38%) Obama 47, Romney 49
Saturday (39%) Obama 49, Romney 47
Sunday (24%) Obama 43, Romney 55

That Sunday looks like an outlier!

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/16/1144982/-Daily-Kos-SEIU-State-of-the-Nation-poll-Romney-s-best-numbers-of-the-week

[Gman]

1. Link?

[fugop]

2. Holy crap!

That Sunday is bizarre! Who the heck was answering their phones that day? 70-year-olds only??

[nc4bo]

3. Something smells

and I'm not a hardcore poll person.

[progressivebydesign]

59. "44% conservative and 22% liberal" that's what smells. Tainted sampling, pointless poll. nt

[Dawgs]

4. I'm a poll person and I don't see how anyone can look at this and not say WHAT THE FUCK.

Nothing happened politically on Saturday or Sunday so those last day numbers make no sense.

This is obviously a throw away poll.

[ProSense]

5. This makes no sense. So Mitt

surged after the VP debate?

What the hell would cause such a shift?

This poll is usesless.

[iemitsu]

7. a rigged poll is what happened.

the media knows these polls influence how people will vote on election day.
presenting romney as a winner will cause some/many to vote for him just because they want to be associated with a winner.
they hope that all their nasty tricks are enough to squeeze a victory for romney.

[TroyD]

6. Won't take long for this poll to find its way onto RCP

I'm sure it will be given a lot of emphasis in the media today too.

But if Obama can perform well tonight and go up in the next one, that might help the optics of this.

[BeyondGeography]

8. I told you when Obama was filmed calling Bo a bad dog Saturday night it would hurt him

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. I Am Afraid You Are Not Exhibiting The Requisite Concern

[Maximumnegro]

49. LOL

[morrissey fan]

9. STOP CRYING READ THE BREAKDOWN

Did you negative people even read this???

Finally, a demographic note—in this poll, 44 percent of respondents were conservative, compared to 16 percent who were liberal.

We serve ourselves no good being negative 24-7!! This is what the right wants!

[TroyD]

11. '44 percent of respondents were conservative, compared to 16 percent who were liberal.'

Why would a Dem-leaning group like Daily Kos commission a poll from PPP like that? I don't get it.

But the reality is that Obama still hasn't come back from where he was before the debate. Romney got a large bounce. It's still showing up in some of the polls. Obama needs to re-energize the electorate tonight!!!

[Maximumnegro]

50. Get over it Troy.

[ProSense]

13. Then it shouldn't have been released.

It's garbage.

Welcome.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. It Would Have Looked Worse If It Wasn't Released

That being said PPP is a robocaller who has little experience I am aware of doing national polls...

It is also contradicted by most of the other pollsters in the field.

[ProSense]

18. True, but it's definitely an outlier

Poll makes no sense.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. Actually , I Felt A Lot, Lot, Lot Worse When That Pew Poll Was Released

Because they are established national pollsters with a long track record.

[TroyD]

24. And PEW had been showing large leads for Obama all year

I think Daily Kos/PPP national polls have been mediocre for Obama in the past as well.

[regnaD kciN]

33. That breakdown is crazy...

...but, in random polling, such things occasionally happen -- even if you weight by demographic factors like age or gender.

As I see it, either Sunday's result is an outlier or the leading edge of a huge pro-Romney wave that is about to swamp this election (and which arose without any discernible cause). Given that there was no sign of any similar move in any of the trackers released yesterday (which would have included Sunday polling), I'm inclined to bet on it being the former.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

47. For Whatever It's Worth PPP Showed A Huge Sunday For Willard In Their Last Poll

And Gallup showed a huger Sunday for President Obama on the same Sunday, at least, according to those who reverse engineered their tracker.

[myrna minx]

37. But what if a double decker bus crashes into us?

[INdemo]

10. Not just this but with other phony polls (PEW)

the heat is on..I think we are seeing the same pattern as we did in 2000 and 2004..The Rpukes confidence is growing too because the fix appears to be on track.There is a sense that Rmoney has the momentum on his side and the right wing hacks are right there promoting this BS...Knowing what we saw in 2000 and in 2004 with the exit polling telling us other wise we may be in for another 2000?
Remember this..It was uncovered in Fla but it has not been in other states..The Koch Bros. money can buy a lot of crooked computer techs

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021506625


"What we’re finding out, is that there are problems with almost every system in the United States,” said Bucher." .

[regnaD kciN]

34. Calling Pew a "phony poll" is crazy...

We may not have liked their one result, but Pew is one if the most universally-respected pollsters around. I'd really like us to not get to the point where a poll is respected or not based solely on whether its results were to our liking.

[INdemo]

39. It was their samplings that I would question..never mind their reputation

if they want to maintain a good standing with their polling then they need to be fair with their surveys..Remember polls are only as good as their accuracy..Zogby has reminded us many times that unless a poll has at least 1000 samplings and balanced geographically then the accuracy can be questioned..that goes for both sides.
I was not questioning the pollster just their methodology.

[helpisontheway]

12. So now Daily Kos is on the Romney wagon? Nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. No...But Kos Doesn't Have The Best Track Record Hiring Pollsters

WASHINGTON -- The polling firm accused of fabricating survey data published by the progressive website Daily Kos has agreed to settle the lawsuit filed last year by site founder Markos Moulitsas. Although details of the agreement have not been disclosed, court records indicate that case remains active: Research 2000 pollster Del Ali has only recently started making the cash payments required by the agreement.

The suit, which Moulitsas filed in June 2010, seemed poised to rock the polling world.

It came after Daily Kos published a statistical analysis of Research 2000's polls that alleged a series of statistical anomalies among the results. That analysis led Moulitsas to conclude that the weekly poll Research 2000 had conducted and run on Daily Kos during 2009 and 2010 "was likely bunk."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/27/daily-kos-research-2000-lawsuit_n_867775.html


PPP is a robocaller with limited experience in national polling I'm aware of.

[WI_DEM]

20. As I said last night in another post...

I respect PPP for their state polling but don't have confidence in their national polling.

[Jose_Jalapeno]

41. Do you bring up track record when PPP has good news?

Or do you ignore track record in those cases?

Do you praise polls with good track record like Pew when they have bad-news polls? Or do you call them outliers anyway?

[OhZone]

19. If he doesn't get that the same has way too many conservatives -

something is very wrong with him.

[WI_DEM]

15. Kos points out that 44% of respondents were conservative to 16% liberal

"Finally, a demographic note—in this poll, 44 percent of respondents were conservative, compared to 16 percent who were liberal. In 2008, 34 percent were conservative, and 22 percent were liberal"

I'm not going to go nuts over this poll. The result Friday and Saturday were consistent, there is no reason to explain such a huge Romney hike for Sunday.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. There Are A Lot More Self Identified Conservatives Than Liberals But It's Closer To 2-1 Not 3-1

.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

25. why would they poll with a 'balanced' population?

obviously the conservatives will go for Romney

[progressivebydesign]

55. WTF?? Why do a poll that is SO lopsided toward Conservatives? that's not a real poll.

Seriously... WHY did they even post a fucking poll SO lopsided? It makes it worthless.

Most people I know are at work or out on Fridays. OUt doing stuff with their kids then out Saturday night. Out at Home Depot and doing things like getting pumpkins with their kids. The only people sitting home on the weekends taking landline calls from random numbers are usually older.

[Zynx]

21. Really screwed the pooch on those Sunday numbers, methinks.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. Don't Drink The Hemlock Just Yet. Intrade Didn't Move On The News.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474

[graham4anything]

27. An insane amount of conservatives make up the poll. NEVER been so many in real life

kos, who's poll it is- says IT IS AN OUTLIER

In this poll, 44 percent of respondents were conservative, compared to
16 percent who were liberal. In 2008, 34 percent were conservative, and
22 percent were liberal

Even Ronald Reagan didn't have that response in his time.

Definite outlier

[Jennicut]

28. Eh, their Sunday polling caused Romney to have a 4 point lead.

That Sunday is totally out of bounds as bad polling. I love PPP but even they would have to admit that day was a total outlier.

[WI_DEM]

30. I totally agree. It's just a case of them getting hold of more republicans that day

[oswaldactedalone]

29. When do we set up our

unskewed poll website? It's hilarious to me the poll deniers here after three weeks ago making hugh fun of the Repigs for being poll deniers and unskewers. Wake up, Obama effed up big time, Robme's bounce continues, and Obama has to get this turned around.

Otherwise, it's up to GOTV and while we have an edge in potential voters, we also have folks more difficult to get to the polls, so it becomes a crapshoot. You folks in swing states, and I'm in NC so I guess that includes me, had better double your efforts to root out all of our voters.

[ProSense]

31. "When do we set up our unskewed poll website?"

We're not stupid. Only stupid people can't tell the difference between the Friday and Sunday numbers.

I mean, is Sunday a delayed reaction to the debate?

[fugop]

36. No way

Today's Rasmussen: Exactly the same as yesterday's. Romney up 2 still. And Ras has that R bias. But their trend is steady. That weird Sunday on PPP is just off.

Did Gallup show a big jump with Sunday?

[barbiegeek]

32. HELP N.C. AND GOTV anyway-make it a battle-DON'T GIVE UP

PLEASE do not write your state off. Go help. Get those absentee ballots. Go! It is not Over until it is over.

[Democratopia]

35. If Daily Kos paid for this poll, they should ask for their money back.

Being somebody who came from Britain, I am not only shocked at the level of political debate in America, but the Micky Mouse aspect of opinion polls.

[Mass]

38. Seems Republicans answer more on Sundays...

[littlemissmartypants]

40. Total

partisan hacks... arithmetical lies.

[Alekei_Firebird]

42. LOL, Romney with a 12 pt lead?

Come on, who's honestly buying that monstrosity of a polling day?

[budkin]

43. Laughable... sounds like a troll poll

WTF

[Frumious B]

44. PPP polled Ohio in the same period

They found a solid lead for Obama in Ohio. No way Obama is trailing by that much nationally and leading in Ohio. One of the two PPP polls has to be wacky. Since we have other recent Ohio polls with similar findings to PPP and PPP's national findings are more tilted towards Romney than other recent polls it seems reasonable to think the national poll is the wacky one.

[regnaD kciN]

56. Actually, the Ohio poll ended on Saturday...

...so any Sunday bounce for Romney, however unlikely in general, simply wouldn't have shown up there.

[DFW]

46. On Sunday, 54% of America had lost its collective mind?

I said 54 as opposed to 55 because the 1% at least has a reason to vote for Romney. No one else in their right mind does.

[JCMach1]

48. Ummm... that ain't right... this poll has problems.

[hrmjustin]

51. They should just drop the sunday polls and go with friday and saturday.

[helpisontheway]

52. So has the media been pushing the

poll all day?

[politicman]

53. ppp should not have released poll

PPP should never have released that poll.

If something in a poll is just not believable, then the pollster should either not release it or keep calling until they get a somewhat accurate sample of voters.

On their friday and saturday sample, they could be believed.

But as soon as their sunday sample showed Romney with a 12 point lead, then the pollster should have known their poll was contaminated and either adjusted it or decide not to release it.

These kind of polls just end up making the pollster lose any credibility they have earned in the past.

[WI_DEM]

54. No, they should release the poll they should supress it

that is bad for credibility, too.

[watercolors]

57. Just another BS poll!

[progressivebydesign]

58. Read the details: "44 percent of respondents were conservative, 22% Liberal."

WTF did they even bother with this???

I could have done this for free.... I'll ask 50 of my republican friends who they're voting for, and then ask 20 of my Democratic friends to see who they're voting for. Same result.

This was so fucking stupid. What as Kos even thinking???