2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumQuinnipiac: 'Romney Closing In On Obama In Pennsylvania'; 'Casey-Smith Senate Race Too Close To Call
October 16, 2012
PRESIDENT
Obama - 50
Romney - 46
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SENATE
Casey (D) - 48
Smith (R) - 45
This compares to a 54 - 42 percent Obama lead in a September 26 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
In today's survey, men back Romney 54 - 43 percent, compared to a 49 - 48 percent split September 26. Women back Obama 57 - 39 percent, little changed from last month. White voters back Romney 53 - 43 percent while black voters back Obama 97 - 1 percent. White Catholic voters go Republican 56 - 43 percent. Voters with college degrees back the president 54 - 43 percent while voters without degrees are divided with 49 percent for Obama and 47 percent for Romney.
Only 7 percent of Pennsylvania likely voters say they might change their mind in the next 21 days.
"Gov. Mitt Romney is coming on strong in the Keystone State, especially among white Catholics," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Pennsylvania voters say Vice President Joseph Biden, a native son and a Catholic, won the debate and is more qualified than U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan to be president. But that doesn't seem to be lifting the top of the ticket."
Pennsylvania likely voters say 42 - 37 percent that Pennsylvania-born Vice President Joseph Biden beat U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan in last week's debate. Independent voters say 41 - 35 percent that Biden won.
But more than 60 percent of voters say the debate does not affect their presidential vote.
Biden is more qualified than Ryan to serve as president, voters say 50 - 42 percent.
By a 52 - 45 percent margin, Pennsylvania voters have a favorable opinion of Obama.
Romney gets a divided 46 - 44 percent favorability rating.
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More:
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=1807
Shivering Jemmy
(900 posts)Obama is at 50. Race is over. Worry about a different state.
Next.
mgcgulfcoast
(1,127 posts)and its only +4 obama?
smorkingapple
(827 posts)This time will be no different...
Unless Obama takes another shit on himself...
morningfog
(18,115 posts)barnabas63
(1,214 posts)fugop
(1,828 posts)They had O+7.
This is the middle of October and people are still spinning the Polls for one side or another. President Obama's side can spin how close North Carolina and Arizona are. These people are so sure Romney has those two states. I don't think either side can say they have North Carolina. North Carolina has been spun into Romney's column. It is not reality though, but wishful thinking on their part.
SingleSeatBiggerMeat
(220 posts)When either of the Doofus Twins show up to campaign in the state or drop a few million on campaign ads.
These are such stupid stories.
Stay Tuned for Tomorrow's Headline - "Michigan in Play."
fugop
(1,828 posts)ProSense
(116,464 posts)The CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac had Obama up 12, not the stand alone Quinnipiac.
For example, the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac had Obama up 11 points in July, the stand alone Quinnipiac had him up 6 points in June.
The Quinnipiac NJ poll shows Obama up 8 points, compared to 7 points previously.
Why the hell would some polls show a noticeable drop and other's show and increase?
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)in every poll the president has a consistent lead. Yesterday it was 7 in PPP.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)I don't think that's the issue.
The main question is the broader one: how much has Obama's support fallen across the board after the first debate?
It's not that we have to worry about losing PA per se, but what the effect might be in OH, VA, CO, NH, IW, NV etc.
abumbyanyothername
(2,711 posts)Hawkeyes!
ProSense
(116,464 posts)The debate was two weeks ago. The VP debate was almost a week ago. Most polls show Obama already rebounding, back to post convention bounce numbers.
Quinnipiac's NJ poll shows Obama gaining a point. There was no consistent showing of huge shifts.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Things don't necessarily go in a linear fashion. There is still some fluctuation in the polls. Yes, Obama is rebounding in some polls, but he is not doing so in others. He is still behind in Gallup & Rasmussen, and barely ahead in TIPP and Ipsos/Reuters. And there has been a decline in a number of the swing states and in Nate Silver's model.
It's going to take tonight's debate and the next week before we can really know what is going on.
"and barely ahead in TIPP and Ipsos/Reuters."
Reuters had Romney up 3 points on Thursday. Yesterday, Obama was up 2 points.
For a poll that has always shown a one- or two point trend. That's a rebound.
Speaking of Gallup, sure there are fluctuations, but remember they showed Obama returning to normal on the Monday after the debate.
VirginiaTarheel
(823 posts)And only Obama's next two debate performances can get us out. It is all on Obama's shoulders now. I hope he realizes that and has prepared copiously for the challenge.
morrissey fan
(76 posts)I live in PA, and Romney closed headquarters months ago. The other polls have Obama up 10.
MSMITH33156
(879 posts)you can always follow the campaign money. If campaigns aren't spending money in a state, it's not in play.
Sugarcoated
(7,728 posts)we have our PA secret weapon
[IMG][/IMG]
Our VP being the scrappy kid from Scranton actually DOES make the state more of a lock.
budkin
(6,714 posts)FAIL
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)If Pennsylvania is a "tie", they why did Rmoney move his staffers to Ohio and Iowa?