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TroyD

(4,551 posts)
Tue Oct 16, 2012, 07:03 AM Oct 2012

Quinnipiac: 'Romney Closing In On Obama In Pennsylvania'; 'Casey-Smith Senate Race Too Close To Call

October 16, 2012

PRESIDENT

Obama - 50

Romney - 46

--

SENATE

Casey (D) - 48

Smith (R) - 45

Gov. Mitt Romney has narrowed a 12-point gap with President Barack Obama and now trails the president 50 - 46 percent among Pennsylvania likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 54 - 42 percent Obama lead in a September 26 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

In today's survey, men back Romney 54 - 43 percent, compared to a 49 - 48 percent split September 26. Women back Obama 57 - 39 percent, little changed from last month. White voters back Romney 53 - 43 percent while black voters back Obama 97 - 1 percent. White Catholic voters go Republican 56 - 43 percent. Voters with college degrees back the president 54 - 43 percent while voters without degrees are divided with 49 percent for Obama and 47 percent for Romney.

Only 7 percent of Pennsylvania likely voters say they might change their mind in the next 21 days.

"Gov. Mitt Romney is coming on strong in the Keystone State, especially among white Catholics," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Pennsylvania voters say Vice President Joseph Biden, a native son and a Catholic, won the debate and is more qualified than U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan to be president. But that doesn't seem to be lifting the top of the ticket."

Pennsylvania likely voters say 42 - 37 percent that Pennsylvania-born Vice President Joseph Biden beat U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan in last week's debate. Independent voters say 41 - 35 percent that Biden won.

But more than 60 percent of voters say the debate does not affect their presidential vote.

Biden is more qualified than Ryan to serve as president, voters say 50 - 42 percent.

By a 52 - 45 percent margin, Pennsylvania voters have a favorable opinion of Obama.

Romney gets a divided 46 - 44 percent favorability rating.


----

More:



http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=1807

22 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Quinnipiac: 'Romney Closing In On Obama In Pennsylvania'; 'Casey-Smith Senate Race Too Close To Call (Original Post) TroyD Oct 2012 OP
LOL! Shivering Jemmy Oct 2012 #1
females+18 O men +11R mgcgulfcoast Oct 2012 #2
Republicans always think they can take PA and get their hearts broken time and time again... smorkingapple Oct 2012 #3
When did Obama take a shit on himself? morningfog Oct 2012 #6
lol....jilted again....nt barnabas63 Oct 2012 #18
Let's hope the PPP one was right here fugop Oct 2012 #4
So what? John2 Oct 2012 #5
Sombeody Call Me SingleSeatBiggerMeat Oct 2012 #7
No, tomorrow's California! N/T fugop Oct 2012 #8
Why are people comparing apples and oranges? ProSense Oct 2012 #9
Every four years they say they will take PA. WI_DEM Oct 2012 #10
I agree Obama is very likely to win PA TroyD Oct 2012 #11
IA. abumbyanyothername Oct 2012 #12
To attribute this to the first debate is ridiculous ProSense Oct 2012 #13
A possible explanation TroyD Oct 2012 #15
? ProSense Oct 2012 #16
Obama's awful first debate performance got us into this mess VirginiaTarheel Oct 2012 #17
Not quite... morrissey fan Oct 2012 #14
Yep MSMITH33156 Oct 2012 #19
AND Sugarcoated Oct 2012 #20
Good luck with that budkin Oct 2012 #21
The right leaning Q poll strikes again. Dawson Leery Oct 2012 #22

smorkingapple

(827 posts)
3. Republicans always think they can take PA and get their hearts broken time and time again...
Tue Oct 16, 2012, 07:17 AM
Oct 2012

This time will be no different...

Unless Obama takes another shit on himself...

 

John2

(2,730 posts)
5. So what?
Tue Oct 16, 2012, 07:33 AM
Oct 2012

This is the middle of October and people are still spinning the Polls for one side or another. President Obama's side can spin how close North Carolina and Arizona are. These people are so sure Romney has those two states. I don't think either side can say they have North Carolina. North Carolina has been spun into Romney's column. It is not reality though, but wishful thinking on their part.

7. Sombeody Call Me
Tue Oct 16, 2012, 08:20 AM
Oct 2012

When either of the Doofus Twins show up to campaign in the state or drop a few million on campaign ads.

These are such stupid stories.

Stay Tuned for Tomorrow's Headline - "Michigan in Play."

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
9. Why are people comparing apples and oranges?
Tue Oct 16, 2012, 09:05 AM
Oct 2012

The CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac had Obama up 12, not the stand alone Quinnipiac.

For example, the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac had Obama up 11 points in July, the stand alone Quinnipiac had him up 6 points in June.

The Quinnipiac NJ poll shows Obama up 8 points, compared to 7 points previously.

Why the hell would some polls show a noticeable drop and other's show and increase?

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)
10. Every four years they say they will take PA.
Tue Oct 16, 2012, 09:07 AM
Oct 2012

in every poll the president has a consistent lead. Yesterday it was 7 in PPP.

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
11. I agree Obama is very likely to win PA
Tue Oct 16, 2012, 09:08 AM
Oct 2012

I don't think that's the issue.

The main question is the broader one: how much has Obama's support fallen across the board after the first debate?

It's not that we have to worry about losing PA per se, but what the effect might be in OH, VA, CO, NH, IW, NV etc.

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
13. To attribute this to the first debate is ridiculous
Tue Oct 16, 2012, 09:22 AM
Oct 2012

The debate was two weeks ago. The VP debate was almost a week ago. Most polls show Obama already rebounding, back to post convention bounce numbers.

Quinnipiac's NJ poll shows Obama gaining a point. There was no consistent showing of huge shifts.

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
15. A possible explanation
Tue Oct 16, 2012, 09:28 AM
Oct 2012

Things don't necessarily go in a linear fashion. There is still some fluctuation in the polls. Yes, Obama is rebounding in some polls, but he is not doing so in others. He is still behind in Gallup & Rasmussen, and barely ahead in TIPP and Ipsos/Reuters. And there has been a decline in a number of the swing states and in Nate Silver's model.

It's going to take tonight's debate and the next week before we can really know what is going on.

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
16. ?
Tue Oct 16, 2012, 09:37 AM
Oct 2012

"and barely ahead in TIPP and Ipsos/Reuters."

Reuters had Romney up 3 points on Thursday. Yesterday, Obama was up 2 points.

For a poll that has always shown a one- or two point trend. That's a rebound.

Speaking of Gallup, sure there are fluctuations, but remember they showed Obama returning to normal on the Monday after the debate.

VirginiaTarheel

(823 posts)
17. Obama's awful first debate performance got us into this mess
Tue Oct 16, 2012, 10:16 AM
Oct 2012

And only Obama's next two debate performances can get us out. It is all on Obama's shoulders now. I hope he realizes that and has prepared copiously for the challenge.

MSMITH33156

(879 posts)
19. Yep
Tue Oct 16, 2012, 10:24 AM
Oct 2012

you can always follow the campaign money. If campaigns aren't spending money in a state, it's not in play.

Sugarcoated

(7,728 posts)
20. AND
Tue Oct 16, 2012, 11:20 AM
Oct 2012

we have our PA secret weapon

[IMG][/IMG]

Our VP being the scrappy kid from Scranton actually DOES make the state more of a lock.

Dawson Leery

(19,348 posts)
22. The right leaning Q poll strikes again.
Tue Oct 16, 2012, 01:39 PM
Oct 2012

If Pennsylvania is a "tie", they why did Rmoney move his staffers to Ohio and Iowa?

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