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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumObama pollster's response to Gallup swing-state poll (actual memo)...
Since we've been talking about this, I think it only fair to share the actual, complete press release:
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Joel Benenson
RE: Latest Gallup / USA Today Numbers
DATE: October 15, 2012
The latest Gallup/USA Today Battleground survey showing President Obama and Governor Romney tied with women in battleground states (48-48) is an extreme outlier, defying the trends seen in every other battleground and national poll.
This result underscores deep flaws in Gallups likely voter screen.
Only 2 years ago the distortions in Gallups likely voter screen were exposed, leaving Gallups survey 9 points off the mark just days before the election.
Gallups likely voter model predicted a 15 point advantage for Republicans, 55-40, on October 31, 2010.
The final result was a 6 point margin, 51-45.
That year, Gallups registered voter survey was much closer to reality at 48-44.
Gallups data is once again far out of line with other public pollsters.
In 14 state polls conducted across 8 swing states since October 4, President Obama leads among women in every single one.
President Obama has a double-digit among women lead in 10 of these polls, including several surveys where the overall horserace is close or the President is behind.
On average, President Obama leads among women by 10.3 points and overall by 2.3 points. (See table on page 2 for results)
We believe the problem with Gallups outlying data is rooted in their 7 question likely voter screen, which distorts the composition of likely voters, leading to erratic and inaccurate results.
In Gallups current survey, Obama leads women by 53-44 among registered voters in the Battleground States, which is closely aligned with results from other pollsters.
It is only when the likely voter screen is applied that their results become so out of step.
Several of the likely voter questions create a bias against groups inclined to support Obama.
For example, Gallup asks voters both whether they have voted in their precinct before and where people in their neighborhood go to vote.
This creates a bias against registered voters who more likely to move from time to time, such as young voters, renters, minorities and urban dwellers, all of whom tend to lean toward the President.
In the past, Gallups justification for such outlying numbers is that they are providing a snapshot of voter attitudes during a particular time period, not predicting the outcome of the election. But this implausible result among women appears to not even provide an accurate reflection on the electorate today, making its value questionable.
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Obama pollster's response to Gallup swing-state poll (actual memo)... (Original Post)
regnaD kciN
Oct 2012
OP
I love when smart people make me look smart. I've been saying this all week!!
progressivebydesign
Oct 2012
#2
Cha
(297,655 posts)1. Thanks for this, regnaD I was just going to Post about this
The Obama Campaign Calls Out Gallups Deeply Flawed Battleground Women Poll
http://www.politicususa.com/obama-campaign-calls-gallups-deeply-flawed-battleground-women-poll.html
After Gallup released a poll showing Obama and Romney tied at 48% with
battleground state women, the Obama campaign exposed a flaw in Gallups likely voter methodology.
The Obama campaign pointed out that Gallups likely voter survey was way off in 2010, Only 2 years ago the distortions in Gallups likely voter screen were exposed, leaving Gallups survey 9 points off the mark just days before the election. Gallups likely voter model predicted a 15 point advantage for Republicans, 55-40, on October 31, 2010. The final result was a 6 point margin, 51-45. That year, Gallups registered voter survey was much closer to reality at 48-44.
battleground state women, the Obama campaign exposed a flaw in Gallups likely voter methodology.
The Obama campaign pointed out that Gallups likely voter survey was way off in 2010, Only 2 years ago the distortions in Gallups likely voter screen were exposed, leaving Gallups survey 9 points off the mark just days before the election. Gallups likely voter model predicted a 15 point advantage for Republicans, 55-40, on October 31, 2010. The final result was a 6 point margin, 51-45. That year, Gallups registered voter survey was much closer to reality at 48-44.
http://www.politicususa.com/obama-campaign-calls-gallups-deeply-flawed-battleground-women-poll.html
progressivebydesign
(19,458 posts)2. I love when smart people make me look smart. I've been saying this all week!!
LOVE the Obama Campaign!!! They're so on it!
Cha
(297,655 posts)5. Toast to Smart People!
JackN415
(924 posts)3. I no longer care that much about polls, I doubt their accuracy
BarackTheVote
(938 posts)4. Interesting, their voter screening questions...
I moved into my apartment two years ago last month; I'm still in the same town, but am now in a different voting district. I also have no idea where my new polling place is. I guess I'm not a "Likely Voter."