Latino Vote Poll Reveals Bad News For Romney In Key Swing States
... Latino Decisions tracks the views of Latino voters using methods that have more accurately predicted Latino political behavior than others, Nate Silver, The New York Time’s statistical wonder kid, wrote this weekend. Silver pointed out that Latino Decisions got right in 2010 precisely what he got wrong -- the impact of the Latino vote.
“I don’t know about other people, but I like to play with that tool on the New York Times where you can sort the states into the different candidate bins,” said Sylvia Manzano, a senior analyst at Latino Decisions. “And what I see is the same thing I see in our research. If Obama takes Florida, Romney would have to run the table and win every other swing state. The probability on that is almost zero, in part because of the number of Latinos living in critical swing states” ...
Arizona, a state that Democrats had hoped to turn blue this year with a surge in Latino voter registration, has vacillated in and out of the swing state pile in 2012 and is set up for what looks to be a razor-thin election. One indicator of the likely outcome: 80 percent of Latinos -- who vote overwhelmingly for Democrats and make up just under 20 percent of the state’s registered voters -- are leaning towards Obama, while just 14 percent lean toward or plan to vote from Romney, according to a Latino Decisions poll released late last week. If Latinos show up in large numbers in Arizona, the traditionally Republican state becomes another that will be hard for Romney to win, Manzano said. The Latino vote has never swung Arizona's partisan alignment before. But, the Latino population eligible to vote has surged by 72 percent in the last decade, according to state voter registration data ...
In Florida, the state with the nation’s only sizable, reliably Republican set of Latino voters, Romney has about 34 percent of the Latino vote compared to Obama’s 52 percent ...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/15/latino-vote-romney-swing-states_n_1968178.html?utm_hp_ref=elections-2012
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