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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumDaily Breakdown: Obama Looks Stronger Over The Weekend
Heading into the weekend, only YouGov/Economist and RAND showed Obama leading among likely voters. By this morning, those two methodologically distinct surveys were joined by four more traditional polls, including two surveys that showed Romney leading late last week. In both instances, Obama's gains exceeded a net-4 points over the last few days. Perhaps most surprisingly, the ABC/Washington Post poll showed Obama gaining a point compared to their pre-debate survey, now holding a 49-46 lead. On the other hand, Obama did not make any gains in Gallup, even though the survey chopped off the initial few days following the first presidential debate. For Democrats hoping for signs that Romney's bounce was fading, the Gallup numbers are a troubling sign. Nonetheless, Obama's leads in national surveys represented an improvement over last week.
But the state polls continued to indicate that Obama was faring relatively well in the battleground states. PPP showed Obama maintaining a 5-point lead in the critical state of Ohio, adding its name to the list of pollsters to show Romney making negligible gains in the Buckeye State. Interestingly, none of the Ohio polls show Romney gaining more than 2 points compared to a post-DNC counterpart, raising the possibility that the tight race shown by the averages might be the product of house effects more than a large shift. Gravis usually provides Romney friendly results, but even Gravis found Obama leading by 2 points in Colorado, a state where Romney has performed relatively well in post-debate polls.
But the state polls continued to indicate that Obama was faring relatively well in the battleground states. PPP showed Obama maintaining a 5-point lead in the critical state of Ohio, adding its name to the list of pollsters to show Romney making negligible gains in the Buckeye State. Interestingly, none of the Ohio polls show Romney gaining more than 2 points compared to a post-DNC counterpart, raising the possibility that the tight race shown by the averages might be the product of house effects more than a large shift. Gravis usually provides Romney friendly results, but even Gravis found Obama leading by 2 points in Colorado, a state where Romney has performed relatively well in post-debate polls.
http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/108580/daily-breakdown-obama-looks-stronger-over-the-weekend
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Daily Breakdown: Obama Looks Stronger Over The Weekend (Original Post)
DemocratSinceBirth
Oct 2012
OP
I don't think so. Gallup's numbers, due to their 7 day moving average always lag behind
fearnobush
Oct 2012
#2
TroyD
(4,551 posts)1. Should we be concerned that Romney is still ahead in Gallup?
Or is it taking Gallup longer to catch up because it is a 7-day Tracking Poll?
fearnobush
(3,960 posts)2. I don't think so. Gallup's numbers, due to their 7 day moving average always lag behind
The other polls. We saw it after the convention and after the first debate.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)3. There Are So Many Polls
But it's empirically obvious they look better for us today than they did a week ago.
gcomeau
(5,764 posts)4. Keep in mind...
...they messed with their models and the numbers now being reported are the new LV spread, which we have NO pre-debate data for.
In the RV model they were using before the numbers really never moved all that much, a couple points.