2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumMonmouth Michigan Poll (A- Rated *)-Clinton 55% Sanders 42%
Hillary Clinton currently holds a 55% to 42% lead over Bernie Sanders in the Michigan
Democratic primary. Clinton enjoys a solid edge among non-white voters (68% to 27%), who make up
more than one-fourth of the likely electorate. Clinton (49%) and Sanders (48%) are virtually tied among
white voters. Clinton has a 57% to 40% lead among voters who earn less than $50,000 a year, and a 54%
to 42% lead among those who earn $50,000 or more. Sanders holds a solid lead (58% to 39%) among
voters under the age of 50, but this is offset by Clintons more than 2-to-1 advantage among voters age 50
and older (65% to 31%}
http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/23a456ac-d673-4189-9742-1f060ec2d926.pdf
* http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/
still_one
(92,366 posts)gives the odds of Hillary winning Michigan at >99%
Cobalt Violet
(9,905 posts)Hortensis
(58,785 posts)sufrommich
(22,871 posts)We're going to win in Michigan.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)Nate Silver gives Monmouth an A -
http://fivethirtyeight.com/int...
Their track record is stellar this year from predicting a photo finish in IA to a Bernie win in OK.
I am kind of surprised Bernie is only -13.
sufrommich
(22,871 posts)I think the debate will help her in MI.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)I think it helped her too...
I have some comments on the debate but my comments are incendiary so I will keep them to myself. If you want I will share them with you in private.
vdogg
(1,384 posts)I'd rather clutch a poll from 2 weeks ago that's so old 538 doesn't even rate it. Sanders is within the MOE111! 1! ONE ELEVEN 11!!
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)bvf
(6,604 posts)INdemo
(6,994 posts)The
Monmouth University Poll
was conducted by telephone from
March 3 to 6, 2016 with 402
Michigan voters likely to vote in the Republican pr
esidential primary and 302 Michigan voters likely to
vote in the Democratic presidential primary. The Re
publican likely primary voter sample has a margin of
error of +4.9 percent and the Democratic likely pr
imary voter sample has a margin of error of +5.6
percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth Univ
ersity Polling Institute in West Long
No cell phone calls
If DWS stays out of it and if Bill Clinton doesn't block any poll entrances or even campaigns within 50 feet from the entrance to a polling place and all the absantee ballots are counted (this time) I predict Bernie Sanders will win.
MaggieD
(7,393 posts)The people in MI know he would ruin the economy. No question about that. They are suffering enough already. Like Romney, Bernie's unwillingness to help the auto industry sinks him in places like MI.
Not to mention, he hasn't won one single state where the white population was under 85%.
PoliticAverse
(26,366 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)The numbers and the MATH just aren't in his favor. He's done! It is IMPOSSIBLE for him to win the nomination.
Hubris doesn't win the nomination. Individual states aren't tallied. It's the one with the most delegates.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)If that holds she will have a good solid win and gain a bunch of delegates. One more step to victory.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Katashi_itto
(10,175 posts)Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)Armstead
(47,803 posts)Lans
(66 posts)Polling is BS to BS
VulgarPoet
(2,872 posts)libtodeath
(2,888 posts)casperthegm
(643 posts)Maybe not one more step toward victory for the "inevitable" candidate...
Someone is feeling the Bern this morning
bigwillq
(72,790 posts)bvf
(6,604 posts)But... but... Nate Silver and "most other polls"!
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)bvf
(6,604 posts)TSIAS
(14,689 posts)At least they had it somewhat close.