2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNew Michigan State University Poll: Hillary 52, Bernie 47
http://msutoday.msu.edu/news/2016/trump-leads-gop-field-in-michigan-democratic-race-close/?utm_campaign=media-pitch&utm_medium=emailA bit different than those robo polls floating around here here, eh?
dragonfly301
(399 posts)I wish MSU wasn't on spring break this week.
HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)I have a couple of friends who come from Michigan and apparently MI colleges tend to be mostly in state students, which means they'll still be around to vote in their home towns most likely.
dragonfly301
(399 posts)Cassiopeia
(2,603 posts)than be concentrated in a single district.
laruemtt
(3,992 posts)CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)It's amazing that Bernie is able to close 20-point gaps like this!
He campaigns in a state, people get to know him and hear his message--and it's fabulous what happens.
She sinks and he gains significantly.
kath
(10,565 posts)NowSam
(1,252 posts)and very possible to overcome - even if one side cheats.
tougher to fix primary than caucus although clintons did it In Mass.
I would be thrilled with a 52 to 47 clinton win In michigan because again outside the south he did better than expected.
Barack_America
(28,876 posts)nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)But this is an observation. Trends used to stay more predictable in polls. These days the last ones are closer. Which is one reason I no longer take them at face value.
So will the predictive markets also be when wrong? They predicted a bernie win in Maine. Not the kind of win. And in my mind that explains the irritation in Clinton's body demeanor yesterday. They got analytics and I predict they are less rosy.
Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)I'm not sure Bernie has enough time to make Michigan Democrats come to their senses in sufficient quantity for him to win, but at least the proportional delegate count will be better (even considering the corrupt superdelegate system will greatly favor Her Anointed Highness).
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)Also this explains the grumpiness on her part. I know both are tired. Both have access to pretty sophisticated internal polls too
Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)And yes...I can't imagine how grueling, mentally and physically, the campaign must be. Moreover, neither candidate is exactly a spring chicken. I'm younger, quite fit, and I get pretty pissy just on a single long(ish) plane flight. Multiple flights in compressed time periods, massive pressure not to arse up pretty much anything you say or do, speech-making, palm-pressing, etc...? Yeesh.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)For public and trend ahead of public curves. Yup, sometimes they are dead wrong too..just ask President Romney.
vdogg
(1,384 posts)The cell phone and landline telephone survey interviewed 838 Michigan adults. The margin of error is 3.4 percent for the full survey, 5.8 percent among 290 likely Republican voters and 6.1 percent among 262 likely Democratic voters.
I smell outlier.
Kalidurga
(14,177 posts)I have been hearing about some kind of Hillary landslide there for months. I don't have a whole lot of hope even with this poll. I grew up there.
BernieforPres2016
(3,017 posts)That's quite a swing.
vdogg
(1,384 posts)That has her up 66-29. This one is a major outlier.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/
gollygee
(22,336 posts)Most of the Democrats I know are Bernie supporters.
thereismore
(13,326 posts)Bernie can get a good result in MI.
book_worm
(15,951 posts)even the ones which are not robos...
The survey, in the field from Jan. 25 to March 3,
Not sure I trust college polls anyway--they are usually not very dependable. But if this gives you guys some hope compared to the several other polls showing HRC well ahead--go at it.
vdogg
(1,384 posts)But all the more recent polls show Hillary winning by substantial margins.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/
Edit: Actually, it is. Poll is so old it's at the bottom of the page and not rated.
KPN
(15,649 posts)"the survey (i.e., numbers/percents) ... changed substantially as voters recognized candidates other than Clinton and Trump after early contests in Iowa and New Hampshire." Bernie's been surging and is within the survey's margin of error.
vdogg
(1,384 posts)More recent polling shows Hillary's lead widening.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/
Omaha Steve
(99,693 posts)Duval
(4,280 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)The methodology is horrendous in this poll. Absolutely horrendous.
And before anyone asks, it starts with having a sampling period opened for well over a month...that, that is just not good polling.
dana_b
(11,546 posts)I don't know a lot about how accurate polling is done. For instance, with tens of thousands of people voting, what is a good sample? Also since this was from a university, did they call people in the community? Go to shopping malls? Where did they converse with people? Also they said that "Knowledge of the Sanders and Rubio candidacies grew". So I would think that the numbers for both of those candidates in particular would change from the end of January until now.
It will be really interesting to see how it ends up after the primary.
RiverNoord
(1,150 posts)We could use a lot more such evaluations when we consider information suggesting good news for Bernie.
Don't get me wrong - I'm all-in for Bernie, but we've got people celebrating the rough equivalent of a leaf falling off a tree and landing on the Bernie side.
On DU, that just gives fodder to some Clinton supporters' claims that we're fools and ignoring reality. And then the 'I know you are but what am I' nonsense takes over...
Stallion
(6,476 posts)and a small Democratic number of polled citizens. 538.com looks like it gave poll .0.00 consideration
ALBliberal
(2,344 posts)Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)So... where are the goalposts going to move this time?
Orange Butterfly
(205 posts)I have noticed he does well when given the time for his campaign to be heard. When a state has closed voting the %'s are high for HRC who has name recognition.
If only this country actually had fair and open voting.
Bread and Circus
(9,454 posts)I see a few Bernie signs a few Trump signs but NO Hillary Clinton signs.
I think people are kind of ashamed to outwardly support Clinton.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)Hmmm interesting observation
Bread and Circus
(9,454 posts)RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)Billy Ray Joe Bob Clinton will show up blocking another polling site with his Bullfeces horn.