2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNate Silver at 538 Gives Obama a teeny bump - Chance of Winning for Obama 63.1%
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/12/oct-12-romney-debate-gains-show-staying-power/Percentage of National Vote 50% Obama 49% Romney
mzmolly
(51,004 posts)take it.
BootinUp
(47,186 posts)is about the same as for the state of Ohio.
GreenPartyVoter
(72,381 posts)courseofhistory
(801 posts)I go there all the time--maybe I registered a long time ago and don't remember but....no commentary yet but the numbers went up about .1%. Nothing major but at least it isn't down. The graph shows both candidates leveling off instead of downard for Obama and upward for Romney. The national vote percentage is now 50% Obama 49% Romney whereas yesterday it was Romney leading by .9%
GreenPartyVoter
(72,381 posts)ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)Then go to Google, and enter it....you should be able to enter and read it that way.
GreenPartyVoter
(72,381 posts)lucabrasi
(117 posts)The numbers were updated, but no post.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)That's why it became a game changer.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)regnaD kciN
(26,045 posts)TroyD
(4,551 posts)At least not in mathematically meaningfully terms.
But better than going down!
Response to courseofhistory (Original post)
thevoiceofreason This message was self-deleted by its author.
ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)Every day, if the polls remain the same, is time Rmoney is losing.
Adenoid_Hynkel
(14,093 posts)showing the president ahead
tomorrow's update should be more interesting
courseofhistory
(801 posts)tarheelsunc
(2,117 posts)he STILL gives that Gravis garbage full weighting!
TroyD
(4,551 posts)The one showing Obama +2?
BootinUp
(47,186 posts)don't know when it was first published.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Then yes, he included today's Gravis poll that has its own thread here.
Last week's Gravis poll had Romney ahead in CO.
Today's Gravis poll has Obama ahead in CO.
That should help Obama in Nate's model.
BootinUp
(47,186 posts)50.5% chance of Romney win. Polling average Obama +1.3, Adjusted Polling average Romney +0.8.
tarheelsunc
(2,117 posts)Just because Obama is leading in the poll doesn't make it any more valid though.
DonViejo
(60,536 posts)Dr Sam Wang over at Princeton responds to a reader's question over at the site:
I actually think theyre on the level. They could get their results by bad weighting.
http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/14/jerseyvotes/#comment-16348
MFM008
(19,818 posts)is not DOWN more, so any up is good!
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)It aint much but hot damn, after last week, I'll take it!
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Colorado
Chance of winning O (50%) R (50%)
-
Florida
Chance of winning O (33%) R (67%)
-
Iowa
Chance of winning O (58%) R (42%)
-
North Carolina
Chance of winning O (13%) R (87%)
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New Hampshire
Chance of winning O (68%) R (32%)
-
Nevada
Chance of winning O (61%) R (39%)
-
Ohio
Chance of winning O (67%) R (33%)
-
Virginia
Chance of winning O (48%) R (52%)
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Wisconsin
Chance of winning O (77%) R (23%)
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Maine CD-2 District 2
Chance of winning O (86%) R (14%)
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http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
elleng
(131,107 posts)underpants
(182,878 posts)The O Man was at 57% at the end of the work week.