PPP: Barack Obama leads our new Ohio poll 51-46

[TroyD]

Barack Obama leads our new Ohio poll 51-46, not much different from 2 weeks ago when it was 49-45

19% of Ohioans say they've already voted and Obama has a 76-24 advantage with them. Romney up 51-45 with folks who haven't voted yet

https://twitter.com/ppppolls

[octoberlib]

1. Great news!!

[TroyD]

2. Thing is though, Romney appears to be leading in Ohio NOW

Obama leads by a large margin with those already voted, which is good, but we have to get Romney's current Ohio numbers down, or he could end up catching up.

Am I reading that right?

[Denzil_DC]

4. I'm sure there's a dark cloud in there

if you look hard enough!

[TroyD]

6. Not looking for one

Just wondering what point we have to hit to prevent Romney from winning the state, or whether he can catch up at some point down the line.

I'm not good enough with math to figure that out.

If Romney declines over the next week, we'll probably be out of the woods if Obama re-takes the current Ohio lead to add onto those votes already banked.

[DonViejo]

7. Denzel, :::Ahem!:::

[alcibiades_mystery]

16. ROFL

It can fool some of the people, and etc.

[davidpdx]

21. Maybe you are the one who is a fool

[RedSpartan]

8. I don't think so.

Here's how I view it, and please, someone correct me if I'm totally off.

Let's pretend there are 100 votes in Ohio.

19%, or 19 votes, have been cast, and Obama leads with them 76%-24%. So Obama has 14.44 votes and Romney has 4.56 votes.

81%, or 81 votes, have yet to be cast, and Romney leads with them 51%-45%. So Romney will have 41.31 votes and Obama will have 36.45 votes.

Add them up, and Obama has 50.89 votes and Romney has 45.87 votes -- essentially the same 51%-46% that PPP is reporting in total.

So unless I am mistaken (and I admit I likely am), it seems to me that if these numbers hold, Ohio is very, very, unlikely to go for Romney unless he can get the 81% of people who have not voted yet to go for him by closer to a 56%+ level. I can't see that happening.

[TroyD]

9. Thanks, yes, this is the sort of calculation I'm interested in

And that they are no doubt doing in Obama OHIO HQ.

Early Voting is going to change the way in which the normal calculations work this year.

Only thing we need to know is, does the PPP Ohio early voting figure stack up with those reported in Ohio and by other pollsters? There may be some variation in the numbers.

But if they are reliable numbers which are backed up by other sources, this could be good.

[LoisB]

11. RedSpartan, would you please get in touch with Paul Ryan and teach him how to do Arithmetic?

[DonViejo]

17. Great analysis RedSpartan. Thanks!

[BlueInPhilly]

22. I did my own calcs

Which says Romney needs to get 56.1% of the remaining 81% to win 50.01% of the total votes. Not sure what the margin of error is, but if it is within +/- Romney 5, Romney can still win OH, if he's leading 51-45 among those who haven't voted yet.

O R O R
19% 76.00% 24.00% 100% 14.44% 4.56%
81% 43.89% 56.11% 100% 35.55% 45.45%
49.99% 50.01%


I didn't factor in the undecideds.

[Azathoth]

10. No he isn't

Out of all Ohioans:

(Roughly)
15% Already voted for Obama
5% Already voted for Romney
36% Haven't voted but intend to vote for Obama
40% Haven't voted but intend to vote for Romney

Obama is getting 15+36=51% of the vote. Romney is getting 5+40=45% of the vote.

[TroyD]

13. So Obama can still win OHIO by 5-6 points?

As long as he maintains his current level of support?

That would be excellent.

[Azathoth]

15. As I understand the tweets, yes

Obama is winning 51-46 in the state. The breakdowns and crosstabs should all sum up to that result.

[DonViejo]

18. You too, Azathoth! Great analysis.

Thank you!

I'm lousy at math in polls but, I know if the election were tomorrow, the President would carry Ohio.

[Alekei_Firebird]

3. Holy damn on those early voting numbers!

At what kind of margin would Romney have to win the remaining 81% of the Ohio voting population by in order to overtake Obama? At what point and margin can Obama effectively declare a victory? Is it possible for Ohio to be decided before the election?

[writes3000]

14. Romney would have to win more than 56% of the remaining vote to win.

If Obama gets just 44% of the remaining vote, he wins.

[franklin200]

5. Looks like the lead is between 4-6

That's 3 reputable polls that have at at 4-6

CNN O+4
Marist/NBC O+6
PPP O+5

[MFM008]

12. your making my eyes hurt

numberrrrrrrrrrrssssssssssssssssss. Calling Nate Silver. Im going to relax aat least TODAY and re-enjoy a scenario of a Romney concession speech.

[GranholmFan]

19. I want to believe it but it is by a Democratic pollster.

So probably a bit biased.

Just like Rasmussen is clearly Republican.

[Alekei_Firebird]

23. 2 things, though...

1) There is no movement or change from pre-debate polls.

2) Other polls, such as the ones by Marist and Quinnipiac, tell a similar story

[zach1845]

20. if

you call nate you have to take over 3 points off as its making it less then a 2 point margin haha!
PPP was ranked 2nd most scewed towards democrats aka Biased. according to him when ever a poll comes out you add whatever its average scew is, he does that with all his polls. when this poll goes into his website its gonna sow obama plus 2.8. Quite a weird system lets see if it works this election lol.
sorry for the sarcasm. He tries hard and is a great statatician I just think sometimes he goes overboard.