2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNate Silver: G.O.P. Senate Hopes Fade
As Nate Silver says, the Democrats went from being likely to lose the Senate only a few months ago, to having an 83.6% chance of winning it in the latest Senate update.
Races that were tough (eg. MA) and races that seemed lost (eg. WI) only months ago, are now leaning Dem.
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Here are some of the the current projections:
MA (Elizabeth Warren) Chance of winning : 79%
MO (Claire McCaskill) Chance of winning: 79%
VA (Tim Kaine) Chance of winning: 77%
CT: (Chris Murphy) Chance of winning: 72%
WI: (Tammy Baldwin) Chance of winning: 82%
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More examples at the link:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/13/g-o-p-senate-hopes-fade-even-as-romneys-rise-polls-show/
NMDemDist2
(49,313 posts)TroyD
(4,551 posts)Heinrich and several others are what we could class as the "90%+" Club:
NM: (Heinrich) Chance of winning: 94%
OH: (Sherrod Brown) Chance of winning: 92%
ME: (King (I) ) Chance of winning: 89%
PA: (Casey) Chance of winning: 94%
WV: (Manchin) Chance of winning: 94%
NJ: (Menendez) Chance of winning: 97%
HI: (Hirono) Chance of winning: 99%
MY: (Cardin) Chance of winning: 99%
MI: (Debbie Stabenow) Chance of winning: 99%
VT: (Sanders (I) ) Chance of winning: 99%
RI: (Whitehouse) Chance of winning: 99%
MN: (Klobuchar) Chance of winning: 100%
CA: (Dianne Feinstein) Chance of winning: 100%
DE: (Carper) Chance of winning: 100%
WA: (Cantwell) Chance of winning: 100%
NY: (Gillibrand) Chance of winning : 100%
Aristus
(66,369 posts)He must have a terrible ground game. I'm voting for our Senator!
Wounded Bear
(58,656 posts)My Maria!
catbyte
(34,386 posts)Makes sense, though. I live in The DeVos Kingdom, GR, and have seen ONE yard sign for Hoekstra.
lunatica
(53,410 posts)Yuk! I despise her, and if a Democrat had run against her I would have voted for him/her. As it is a Republican ran against her so I had to vote for her to keep the Senate. Fuck! That woman has the fucking luck of GWB!
WCGreen
(45,558 posts)Sherrod Brown.
Another silver spoon candidate fielded by the GOP.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)He is such a snotty little thing. The OHIO newspapers have really gotten fed up with him lately and some of them have really ripped him apart and many have endorsed Brown.
I don't know if it's been posted here yet, but he got into a fight with the editorial board of one of the newspapers last week, as well as a radio interviewer who ended up hanging up on him!
flamingdem
(39,313 posts)Elizabeth wow!
JackN415
(924 posts)Wounded Bear
(58,656 posts)as I'm sure most would around here.
http://www.delbeneforcongress.com/
gkhouston
(21,642 posts)Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)What is helping him is that Republican women do NOT like Linda McSteroids, her business, or her husband's history of giving steroids to the WWE performers. If the numbers hold and 1 out of 4 Republicans cross over for Murphy on November 6th, Linda McMahon would have wasted some $70 million of her money for nothing.
Forgot to post this one above:
(Joe Donnelly): Chance of winning: 51%
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
Bill Clinton was just there a few days ago. That could give him another boost.
Cha
(297,235 posts)Chris Murphy!
regnaD kciN
(26,044 posts)...but Obama's re-elect odds were better than that on 538 just ten days ago.
I'm sure another set of polls from WeAskAmericARGravismussen could turn around those odds in a hurry.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)It's unlikely we'll have another setback like the debate which has national repercussions for all the Senate races.
In fact, Nate Silver pointed out that the fact that the chances of the Democrats winning the Senate did not go down over the past week is a bad sign for the GOP.
SheilaT
(23,156 posts)change an R Senator to a D one?
How many would that give us in the Senate?
TroyD
(4,551 posts)But not WI. We currently hold that seat already. It is opening up because Sen. Herb Kohl is retiring.
WillyT
(72,631 posts)TroyD
(4,551 posts)He may be underestimating support for Carmona in AZ (I don't think he's included today's +4 Carmona poll), and may be underestimating the Democratic advantage in NV that Shelley could end up with on election day.
catbyte
(34,386 posts)Didn't he have her at over 70% chance at winning, but severely underestimated the Hispanic vote for Reid?
TroyD
(4,551 posts)There were definitely several analysts predicting that Angle would win, and Nate may have been one of them.
no_hypocrisy
(46,104 posts)TroyD
(4,551 posts)Current projections are for about 52-54 Dems.
60 seats is not realistic at this point in time.
But the good news is that there will be a Democratic Majority in the Senate. That was up in the air a few months ago.
So this is still huge news.
mucifer
(23,542 posts)Iliyah
(25,111 posts)the lean right polls were portraying then why wasn't the Dems in the Senate races going down as well. If Mittens was surging like the corporate media was saying why wasn't he bringing up th rear for the GOPpers? We we know why now don't we.
Still, vote, vote, vote and get your family and friends out to vote!
Overseas
(12,121 posts)mountain grammy
(26,621 posts)we need to flip the House and the Statehouses too!
MassedPole
(242 posts)Hope she kicks Tommy Thompsons Tail. Id be voting for her.
underpants
(182,803 posts)that's okay we are CRUSHING them in canvassing. I knocked on 100 doors yesterday and definitely got 2 people to commit to Kaine.
ffr
(22,670 posts)And I'm not going to sleep until I have everyone I know recorded as voting.
Moostache
(9,895 posts)That MOST important thing is that Harry Reid follow through on his words put in place new rules for the next Senate before the endless stream of filibusters can start again...
Wounded Bear
(58,656 posts)budkin
(6,703 posts)I guess it doesn't matter if we have a GOP house
Savanna Anna
(5 posts)[link:http://www.kpho.com/story/19814639/new-az-poll-dead-heat-in-presidential-race-latino-vote-key|
New AZ poll: Dead heat in presidential race; Latino vote key
Posted: Oct 14, 2012 12:21 AM PDT Updated: Oct 14, 2012 7:48 AM PDT
By Heather Moore - bio | email
© CBS 5 © CBS 5
PHOENIX (CBS5) -
In the race for the White House, a new poll shows Pres. Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are in a dead heat in Arizona.
The Rocky Mountain Poll released Saturday shows it's also neck and neck for the U.S. Senate, and for the first time in a long time, Arizona is looking more like a battleground state.
OK, I never thought I would see this. I live in Arizona and I am thrilled. Last night on the local news, I saw Hispanic voters putting up tables to get as many Hispanics registered as possible.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Latino turnout will be key for Carmona to win the race.
desertduck
(213 posts)I was watching re runs of how hard Latinos worked to get minorities registered.
[link:http://indiancountrytodaymedianetwork.com/2012/10/15/elections-2012-arizona-is-new-swing-state-american-indians-latinos-will-decide-outcome-139967|
Elections 2012: Arizona is New Swing State; American Indians, Latinos Will Decide Outcome
Moosepoop
(1,920 posts)I think you'll like it here!
Savanna Anna
(5 posts)Thanks for recommending this forum to me. I know I will like it here.
calimary
(81,267 posts)Let's turn AZ blue!
Glad you're here! We need you to help us do exactly that! 'Cause this thing isn't nailed down yet.
Now get to work.
Savanna Anna
(5 posts)Deep red to blue!!!
Auntie Bush
(17,528 posts)I wish we could knock all the ReThugs block off.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Warren overtook Brown after her appearance at the DNC convention. There have been a couple of polls giving Brown the edge, but the majority are in Warren's favor now. Both Nate Silver and Larry Sabato have the MA SEN seat leaning in her direction now.
Cosmocat
(14,564 posts)I always was flumoxed how Warren was running behind Brown. That one HAD to flip.
Baldwin has been a big surprise, I think that was one the Rs had penned in their column.
MO got tea bagged.
I just hope Murphy can leg out that WWF dingbat, and hopefully put her down for good.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Tommy Thompson has run one of the worst Senate campaigns of anyone in the country this year, with the exception of Todd Akin.
- > Taking large periods of time off during the campaign
-> Having trouble raising money
-> Forgetting how many houses he owns
-> Allowing his campaign manager to make anti-gay comments about Baldwin
-> And the latest today (about which there is a thread) his son saying voters should send Obama back to Kenya
Going in, it was just assumed he would walk away with it.
Again, I think the Rs had that one chalked up 6 months ago.
But, agree, he has been a big disappointment (from a general standpoint) and obviously is past his prime and living off his rep, while Baldwin has been pretty sharp.
Left Coast2020
(2,397 posts)How big of a margin would we get if all above win in Senate? I always watch the Senate races because it has SC implications. Second, I was told that we may have trouble with HoR. A staffer with Bera race (to unseat Lungren in CD7) told me his info says batshit Bachman may get her seat back because of her district. It would be an absolute joy to get these teabaggers out and have some sane people in the House who will help the Prez with economic legislation. But I'm hoping we can get House too. We need it. Any clues?
DFW
(54,379 posts)With some serious end-spurt groundwork in these states, we might even pull off a 2006 scenario, though that's probably hoping for too much.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Because Berkley has been close in some of the recent polling, and the Democrats have the stronger ground game in the state.
But ND looks pretty tough, even though Heidi Heitkamp has been doing better than expected. Nate Silver's odds for her look pretty steep.
Good luck to both!
DFW
(54,379 posts)I hold out hope that the DSCC will toss her some last minute support. A decent performance by Obama in the last two debates wouldn't hurt, especially if Obama gets to discuss some farm-relief-related questions. Romney doesn't even know what a farm is except for Old McDonald having had one.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Arizona
Chance of winning (D) 38% (R) 62%
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Connecticut
Chance of winning (D) 74% (R) 26%
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Florida
Chance of winning (D) 98% (R) 2%
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Indiana
Chance of winning (D) 52% (R) 48%
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Massachusetts
Chance of winning (D) 82% (R) 18%
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Maine
Chance of winning (I )90% (R) 7%
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Missouri
Chance of winning (D) 83% (R) 17%
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North Dakota
Chance of winning (D)22% (R) 78%
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Nevada
Chance of winning (D) 29% (R) 71%
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Wisconsin
Chance of winning (D) 84% (R) 16%
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More Senate projections:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
DFW
(54,379 posts)But his highly pessimistic views on NV and ND are highly discouraging, especially considering the total nut cases running for the Republicans in both states. I can't imagine it looks that dim in both states, which gives me to wonder about the accuracy of the rest.
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)Heidi has been making big gains for a while, so that trend may put her over the top in November.
http://heidifornorthdakota.com/
Lucy Fer
(11 posts)President
Senate
House
In a few years the Republican Party will be reduced to competing with the Libertarian one, at this pace.