2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumJim Acosta just tweeted: Obama leads 44-42% in Arizona!
https://twitter.com/jimacostacnn/status/257178591803088896A big deal, if true!
OhZone
(3,212 posts)OHYEAH!
fugop
(1,828 posts)HAHAHAHAHA!
Who knows, but anything like this is awesome for our spirits right now!
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)I thought at first this would be some democratic poll but I see it's the Rocky Mountain News, so that is double wow.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Anyone familiar with this pollster?
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)Cant find any information on the web about this at all. does anyone have a link?
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Rocky Mtn poll of likely voters in AZ:
Obama 44%
Romney 42%
Johnson 3%
Stein 1%
-----
I know Obama is going to do better with Latinos this year in Arizona than in 2008, but this poll seems at odds with other polling.
I'd be interested to know if they also did a poll for the Arizona Senate race.
Bill Clinton was just in Arizona for Carmona on Wednesday night.
If Bill can have that much influence, that would be pretty amazing.
ProSense
(116,464 posts)http://sync.democraticunderground.com/10021506630
Cha
(297,240 posts)Last edited Sat Oct 13, 2012, 04:34 PM - Edit history (1)
"Why Arizona may be the surprise of 2012 the big Latino vote that you didnt see coming"I wondered about this..all the crap the Brewer recons gave Latinos in AZ.
Edit: forgot "t" in this
ProSense
(116,464 posts)showed Mitt leading by 3 points.
http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/PurplePoll-9.21.12.pdf
There must be a reason they pulled out Arizona for the first time.
teabaggersarestupid
(111 posts)tends to lean conservative. Of course, this poll was taken prior to the debate but still. Prior to the debate, it's possible the race was tied in AZ.
Lone_Star_Dem
(28,158 posts)Thanks for digging that up!!
TroyD
(4,551 posts)And while we shouldn't assume this means Arizona is in play for Obama until we see more polls, it's still a positive sign.
I've been following Carmona's campaign for weeks, and this poll putting him ahead of Flake by 4 points could really help.
Lone_Star_Dem
(28,158 posts)Hopefully also done in English and Spanish.
MizzM
(77 posts)I have been here since 2006 in this red state (from Boston) And, I am seeing for the first time, the Democratic party here calling it a Purple State. Wow. I have been to Democratic Headquarters, and it is awe inspiring to see the fervor and dedication of the volunteers - white, black, Latinos, Asian, and LGBT all working so hard to get the vote. You would think Carmona would be a shoe-in, but then again, we are in Arizona. This is very good news for Carmona and Obama.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Obviously Bill has a lot of demands on his time and will need to be in OHIO a lot over the next 3 weeks to prevent Romney from making any more gains there, but since the first Carmona-Clinton rally was a success, I'm wondering if Bill will return once more to help Carmona close the deal.
MizzM
(77 posts)But you never know. I don't know his agenda, other than Ohio as you mentioned. This Senate seat is so important. The thought of a Democrat elected to the US Senate in Arizona makes my head spin!
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Conducted by Rocky Mountain Poll from 10/04/2012 to 10/10/2012.
Wonder if it would be even higher if the the first few days were shaved off?
kath
(10,565 posts)debate, just glorified press conferences.
zach1845
(30 posts)TroyD
(4,551 posts)In the U.S. Senate race.
Bad Thoughts
(2,524 posts)he can put more places in play than Romney, force him to spend money to secure what should be his states.
tarheelsunc
(2,117 posts)It says take the negative campaigning and the Koch brothers et al out of the picture, and people would be realizing who the better candidate is nationwide. No thanks to the Supreme Court for the Citizens United ruling...
Baitball Blogger
(46,709 posts)could be true as there has been sparce data. PPD poll was done a week ago there. romney +9
Im sure this will at least bring more polling there.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)He doesn't consider the state in play. We'll see what happens in the days to come.
BUT the Democrats ARE contesting the Senate race. That shows momentum for Carmona, and with this new poll he has now moved into a 1.2% average lead over Flake. Bill Clinton was in Arizona for Carmona earlier this week. Clinton is the only Democrat to win Arizona in modern history so he could continue to be an asset in the state.
The DSCC is spending $500,000 on ads for Carmona this month.
bushisanidiot
(8,064 posts)After that crazy az governor signed the anti-immigrant law, I knew
AZ would be in play.
the only reason AZ was as close as it was in 08 was because that
is McCain's home state. think about it.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)The LD poll earlier this week showed that Obama's strength with Latinos in Arizona is stronger than in any other state in the country.
And Carmona's popularity with Latinos is also an asset.
BellaKos
(318 posts)While in Arizona during the primary, he said that he thought that the Arizona immigration law should be a model for the nation. Latinos aren't gonna' forget that.
Lone_Star_Dem
(28,158 posts)I'm thinking you may be onto something here. As far as I know it's the first poll there of RV's done in both languages.
Edit to add: In AZ.
writes3000
(4,734 posts)I was just reading that on DailyKos. With Carmona being Hispanic, the Hispanic turn out should be big there.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)According to the pollster: "It must be concluded that Arizona is definitely a battleground state for both the Presidential and the U.S. Senate races and there can be little doubt but that the outcome will be largely dependent on whichpolitical party does the best job in turning out its voters and whether the Democrats can hang onto the Latino vote." Latinos are 77-10 Obama.
Cha
(297,240 posts)treestar
(82,383 posts)that one's got to roll! His accent is pretty good, too.
I read the same thing they are not trying for it. Internal polls must show it to far off.
although those are just pundits. you never know.
bushisanidiot
(8,064 posts)i expect pollsters to make that adjustment this weekend and later this week.
jillan
(39,451 posts)Carmona - Dem - Veteran, surgeon and former Surgeon General of the US and a Hispanic!!
Vs
Jeff Flake - Mormon Repub - one of the original teabaggers. Congressmen - mine! Who has done absolutely nothing but vote against everything that would help the citizens of this state.
It's neck and neck with Carmona just a couple of points ahead. Alot will depend on the top of the ticket.
Cha
(297,240 posts)depend on GOTV. Who knows, maybe Carmona will help Up ticket?
TroyD
(4,551 posts)http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2012/10/10/why-arizona-may-be-the-surpise-of-2012-the-big-latino-vote-that-you-didnt-see-coming/
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Maximumnegro
(1,134 posts)if it helps to change the narrative, then let's push it.
Arugula Latte
(50,566 posts)2theleft
(1,136 posts)And, while she is a moderate/conservative (old school repub), her husband is an independent - some way left views, some eh...BUT, he has been on an anti-Romney post-fest on his twitter, facebook, and his blog. Causing quite a stir in his very conservative neighborhood. Calling him later to see what the mood on the ground is.
Cha
(297,240 posts)TroyD
(4,551 posts)Bill won AZ in 1996.
If the state really does tighten, then I assume he will make another visit.
But the best shot is probably still the Senate seat.
bluestateguy
(44,173 posts)As in, was any of it done before the 1st debate? An LV screen or RV screen?
michael811
(67 posts)from being a true swing state. 2016 Az is in play for sure 2012 might be a bit too early but Russel Pierce was recalled after he wrote 1070 and there are enough latinos in the state to give it to Obama if they turnout enough but it would have to be a pretty big turnout by them to make the difference
Ishoutandscream2
(6,662 posts)By 2024, I think we're blue. I'll be 63, and I want to see this!
Denise21
(63 posts)And that is the the case it is Obama 43/dumb head 50. Polls don't count electoral votes do
Response to UrbScotty (Original post)
Deep13 This message was self-deleted by its author.
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)them but this one is unbelievable - LOL
I will take it, why because Latinos are not usually factored into most polls.
Esse Quam Videri
(685 posts)because they had a big decision to make? Wonder if they are thinking about putting some more money into Az because of these latest numbers?
morningfog
(18,115 posts)barbtries
(28,795 posts)a blue arizona. yes.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)just moved in and got my voter's registration card.
GallopingGhost
(2,404 posts)twice to believe it. LOL
tallahasseedem
(6,716 posts)That would be absolutely amazing!
RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)Lord_Maculus
(53 posts)Just something to consider.
I personally think Obama should try and put it in play, maybe not go there himself but have Michelle or Biden hold a big, media covered rally out there w/Carmona. Clinton going out there will help, I think. I certainly think the demographics are more in our favor out there (especially with the backlash to "Papers, Please!" this year than they were in Indiana in 2008.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Bill Clinton was just there 3 nights ago at a big rally for Carmona.
I think I posted the video above.
Bill won AZ in 1996 (the first Dem to do it since Truman in 1948).
TroyD
(4,551 posts)https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)WARRRRRRGGKLHHHGGGHGGLLLL
Pokoyo
(22 posts)Its real. good news!!!! http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/13/poll-presidential-race-close-in-arizona/
Pokoyo
(22 posts)They are quick to post pro republican shit.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)But I don't expect RCP to.
Not sure what Huffington Post will do.
GallopingGhost
(2,404 posts)turn out in full force to vote, AZ might very well turn blue.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Boy, won't that piss off Utah and the Southern AZ Mormon population.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)"Why Arizona may be the surprise of 2012 the big Latino vote that you didnt see coming"
http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2012/10/10/why-arizona-may-be-the-surpise-of-2012-the-big-latino-vote-that-you-didnt-see-coming/
courseofhistory
(801 posts)Poll: Presidential race close in Arizona
CNN's Gregory Wallace
(CNN) - A new poll of likely voters in Arizona shows the race for the White House is a close contest in the state.
President Barack Obama stands at 44% and GOP challenger Mitt Romney has 42% in the Rocky Mountain poll released Saturday. The margin is within the poll's sampling error.
Follow the Ticker on Twitter: @PoliticalTicker
Check out the CNN Electoral Map and Calculator and game out your own strategy for November.
With 11 electoral votes, the state has been considered to be leaning in Romney's favor.
The state's two most populous counties, Maricopa and Pima, came out in support of Obama, while Romney has a lead in the rural counties. Men are evenly split between the two candidates, and the difference between the candidates among women is only three points.
Obama is the heavy favorite among the state's Latinos, who split for him 77% to Romney's 10%.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/13/poll-presidential-race-close-in-arizona/
Historic NY
(37,449 posts)TroyD
(4,551 posts)Good to see some more blue on the main page:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/