Easier To Understand -Gallup RV-Obama 49% -Romney 46% /LV-Romney 49% Obama 47%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx?ref=logo


Five points is a huge gap. Historically the gap is closer to two. If we can close the gap to its historical norm we win a close election. This is all about rallying the base, getting them off their asses, and to the polls.

This afternoon, Gallup applied its likely voter model for the first time and found Romney gaining 5 points compared to registered voters. But while a persistent likely-registered voter gap isn't good for the president's chances, it's worth remembering that this is about the same difference that Gallup found at this point four years ago. As you can see, Gallup initially showed a 6 point gap between likely and registered voters, which shrunk to just a couple of points by Election Day.

http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/108342/romneys-gain-among-likely-voters-not-unusual


Just a small part of one day that will affect a large part of their life.

[amborin]

1. this is why GOTV is most crucial

[helpisontheway]

2. So another strong day dropped off for Romney and he still leads LV. Ugh! nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. I Can't Believe We Are Going To Crap Away A Three Point RV Lead

.

[still_one]

6. because some clown tells you who are likely to vote based on their formula that republicans are more

motivated.

I don't by it

I also believe the numbers are starting to move in our direction

[progressivebydesign]

32. THANK YOU!!! I wish more people understood this!!

instead they're freaking out over the Likely Voter thing. It is not based on who said they'll vote, it's based on a recalculation of date given at the end of the call (ie age, sex, etc.)

That entire model got thrown on its ass in 2008 because the voters were different than the reagan years... And the pollsters got spanked.

[Mutiny In Heaven]

4. Swing states.

That's where the GotV will be concentrated; In 2010 despite losing the popular vote roughly in line with the polls, Democrats over-performed in all 7 'toss-up' seats.

I have a feeling that the "likely voter" model might just end up being rather different in states like Ohio and Virginia.

It is an unprecedented gap between registered and "likely" voters though...Enough so that I would be extremely skeptical of whether this will be borne out on election day.

Still, we must remember that there's a LOT of soft support; this week has confirmed that. A great performance on Tuesday, and Obama is probably a point or two up come the end of the week.

Pre-DNC, my suspicion was that this would be decided by the job report mere days from polling; bar someone completely imploding, I am now more or less certain that this will be the case.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. I Definitely Think Obama Outperforms His LV Numbers

I think minority voters, who are underrepresented in these likely voter models, know that a rejection of Obama is as much a rejection of them by many Romney voters as it is a rejection of him.

[courseofhistory]

26. What I want to know

is how the distiction is made? Are you a likely voter or likely to vote for one of the presidential candidates? Is it if the election were held today or when the election is held? Are you a registered voter? Do you plan to vote? (or is that question not asked?) Who would you vote for if you did vote? It seems to me that if someone is registered but not sure they'd vote, the answer is kind of irrelevant. BUT it also depends on what questions are asked AND other methodology.

Has anyone heard of any polls that regularly sample early voters? That would make quite a difference I'm sure.

[progressivebydesign]

33. not based on questions, based on demographics and past elections overall.

that's why it was wrong in 2008. They never figure in the people who stand 10 hours in line to vote. They assume it will be the rich white ladies in red districts who have a parking spot in front of the nicely equipped polling place, for their Lincoln Navigator. The LV model does not count people who are dedicated to vote, regardless of how hard it is for them to do so.

[woolldog]

5. I'm scared.

I thought O would've rebounded by now.

[dennis4868]

7. Yep

2 good days for Romney and he still has the likely voter lead and even the Obama RV lead is to close for comfort after all the positive economic news lately. Don't get it.

[helpisontheway]

9. Check out the quotes from the article that I posted below or go read the article

There is some hope...

[woolldog]

15. thanks.

Ill take good polling news where I can find it.

[Maximumnegro]

28. He won't rebound until narrative changes

The important thing is Romney seems to be stabilizing.

[helpisontheway]

8. Oh there is some good news in the article:

"Obama's slight 49% to 46% seven-day lead among registered voters is just about where it was in the seven days prior to the debate. This trend suggests that Romney's impressive debate performance -- 72% of debate watchers said he did the better job -- may not have a lasting impact. "


AND

"Since Saturday, however, Obama has regained a 50% to 45% edge among registered voters in interviewing conducted Sunday and Monday -- the same as his margin in the three days prior to the debate. Although these two days of interviewing involve relatively small sample sizes, they suggest that Romney's debate "bounce" may be fading."

PLEASE LET THIS BE TRUE!!!!!!!!!!!

[helpisontheway]

10. Of course this is still among registered voters only...nt

[writes3000]

11. Thanks to pulling this piece out.

[alcibiades_mystery]

12. How do we prove their likely voter model wrong? Canvas! Phonebank! GOTV! Fight like hell!

To Romney's Battle of the Bulge, we say "NUTS!"

Here was another poster on this very board, just this morning: "NO AMOUNT OF PHONE BANKING, CANVASSING, OR OTHER GOTV TACTICS WILL MEAN SHIT UNLESS OBAMA COMPLETELY REVERSES HIS 1ST DEBATE PERFORMANCE. "

A poster on DU (I won't call this poster a DUer) attempting to discourage people from the actual work they can do to affect the elections! Do not let these people win, or discourage you. The very fact that this poster felt the need to try to depress our election work should tell you all you need to know: They know that when we work to get out the vote, they lose.

So make them lose.

NUTS!

[writes3000]

17. Exactly, Exactly, Exactly Right!

[graham4anything]

24. Al Gore and JOhn Kerry won all 3 debates. The last 2 weeks after til election day are GOTV

and hundreds of thousands will already have voted early.

People should stop stressing on the debates, they really are NOT that important at all.

(and neither are undecideds, who if they don't know who they are voting for now, are either liars or just don't care.)
(and remember-many undecideds before 2008 switched to democrats and still are, leaving only republicantealibertarians as undecideds in the first place.

[TroyD]

27. 'People should stop stressing on the debates, they really are NOT that important at all.'

Are you really saying that after all that's happened over the past week?

[graham4anything]

29. Walter Mondale and Bob Dole thought they were coming back too. Ain't gonna happen

Biden kicked Gloves Ass and IMHO Obama rope a doped Kerry.

I know you wanted blood, but politics done well is indeed a 7 step ahead program and the key is 11/6/2012 not earlier

and the old "Obama can't close" is bullshit

Hillary delayed the enevitable for 2 months, but mathematically it was impossible

same here, President Obama also has some aces up his sleeve when needed

including the major important endorsements from among others Colin Powell at just the correct time, which won't be til after the 3rd debate. Colin ain't stupid. And generals don't go against their commanding officer while a war is going on.
(plus he is black and all that.)

and I still insist NOT one Obama voter changed side, meaning all the others do not matter.

you can congratulate me when I am proven right(or not, I don't need you thanks or no thanks.)

Meanwhile the debbie downers and sad sams and cutten runners are moral demoralizers
and it is far better to be up than down

and a 2 to 1 odds by Nate is indeed pretty nice.
That is larger than Obama had this time 2008.

[Maximumnegro]

30. Right on. Cutten Runners. I like that...

[ProSense]

13. Oct 3: Obama 49, Romney 45 (RV)

This is good news Romney isn't moving among LV.

[helpisontheway]

16. ? Romney is up to 49 with LV? Nt

[ProSense]

19. The Oct. 3 is RV.

He isn't moving among LV, which was launched a week ago.

[geek tragedy]

20. Daily trackers drive way too much of the narrative.

Quality National pollsters should be coming out with stuff next week.

[ProSense]

21. Here is Gallup on the 5-point margin

<...>

Although Gallup's main focus is on seven-day rolling averages, a breakdown of interviewing over shorter periods can be helpful in understanding the short-term impact of events like conventions and debates. As Gallup reported Monday, Romney gained ground among registered voters in the immediate aftermath of his Oct. 3 debate, moving from a five-point deficit prior to the debate to a tie in the three days that immediately followed. Most of that gain was driven by substantial Romney leads in the Thursday and Friday tracking.

Since Saturday, however, Obama has regained a 50% to 45% edge among registered voters in interviewing conducted Sunday and Monday -- the same as his margin in the three days prior to the debate. Although these two days of interviewing involve relatively small sample sizes, they suggest that Romney's debate "bounce" may be fading.



http://www.gallup.com/poll/157955/romney-obama-among-likely-voters.aspx

[boxman15]

22. A good debate performance by Obama coming off the heels of Biden will help.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the gap between registered and likely voter polls narrows over time. It will probably get to that 2 percent range about a week out from the election as long as Obama does his job and gets people excited again.

Romney's bump is basically all because he fired Republicans up and demoralized Democrats. He's gained almost nothing from independents.

[zach1845]

23. new changes should help obama

Obama should be approving alot considering they now call 50% cell phones and poll 5% more non white voters.
Yet in the 3 day approval rating of RV voters he loses 4 points. unbelievable.

[writes3000]

25. Looks like we're UP in today's RAND poll today! Positive momentum!

[FBaggins]

31. I'm afraid not.

We've been up in the Rand poll all along.

This gap (1.2%) is actually the worst they've seen it since before the conventions.

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/pollsters/rand

On edit - My apologies. It's worse than that. They actually have Romney up by 1.2. That's the largest lead he's had since they started polling.

OTOH, almost nobody pays attention to them. It's a very nontraditional poll. It's the same group of people polled over and over.