Why Didn't The Great Jobs Report Not Blunt The Momentum Of The Poor Debate Performance?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

I thought for sure it would and made several posts at the time suggesting that would be the case. Even Frank Newport, polling director, for Gallup said they expected to see it in their polling.

[ProSense]

1. Not only the good jobs report, but

also the other good economic news: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021524936

[TroyD]

2. I don't think it's getting promoted enough

There hasn't been much talk about it in the media other than on the first day, and it received only fleeting mention by Biden in the debate this week, although at least he referred to it once.

Has to be mentioned by Obama about 4 or 5 times on Tuesday night.

[writes3000]

3. I don't think the Democrats actually did enough with it. Republicans did more by questioning it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. I Woke Up At 5:00 A.M. To Watch It

When they reported unemployment had fell to 7.8% I felt the election was essentially over and Obama won it.

[TroyD]

7. I did too!

It was almost orgasmic.

Had no idea things would still be so up in the air a week later.

[Sekhmets Daughter]

4. There was so much nonsense about the numbers being fudged

I think some people are waiting for confirmation.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. I Think It Was More The Media Ignoring It And Focusing On The Crappy Debate

.

[TroyD]

11. True

But here's an interesting question I don't think anyone has asked:

What IF the Jobs Report had come out BEFORE the First Debate? What if the first debate had only been a few days AFTER the Jobs Report? Would Obama have been much more energized and confident?

Weird the way timing can affect things in life.

[geek tragedy]

24. Question is: why is the Obama campaign ignoring it.

Biden mentioned it once.

But, they need to say "it's been painful, but things ARE getting better. We're making progress. We need to go faster, but we're finally going in the right direction."

The more optimistic campaign wins.

[Wounded Bear]

30. I pointed this out to a RWer on another board....

His reaction, typically was "It's not good enough. Do you think it's good enough?"

Can't reach them.

[geek tragedy]

36. Reachable voters do need to hear optimism and how

a candidate will make things better.

[Tigress DEM]

13. Nonsense AND the rethugs are making it into a FEDERAL CASE - literally.

[Jackpine Radical]

25. And, for the Wingnut segment of the population, the Fudging Theory

marches on. There is no possible evidence that you could offer to uproot one of these irrational memes once Fox/Rove/Koch^2/Limbaugh/Hannity/Loofahlapper have planted it with repetition. It is now a beloved factoid in the Alternate Universe of the Far-Righteous.

[cilla4progress]

8. For some reason - media bias or creating the "horse race"

Republicans are driving / winning the messaging right now.

Let's hope Obama is just keeping his powder dry for the final push.

We all know he can do it. So many times I've / we've seen it. I've watched him at rallies, speeches, pull out incredible rhetoric, articulation, energy, connection.

I KNOW that man, that energy, is still there.

[enough]

9. That would assume we have news media actually reporting NEWS,

instead of propaganda.

[Alekei_Firebird]

10. Democrats haven't sold it enough

Joe Biden didn't mention unemployment being under 8%. I expect Obama to make more of a case in the next debate.

[TroyD]

14. I think Biden mentioned it once

But it needed to be emphasized more.

And does again next week and the week after and the week after.

[Alekei_Firebird]

22. It was only a passing reference

Paul Ryan cited the unemployment rate in Scranton and said that the rate was going up there, just like in the rest of the America. Biden quickly said that it was going in the opposite direction, but he didn't say anything more than that.

Unless I missed something else in the debate...

[ModLibCentrist]

12. Romney Handlers

I think Romney handlers did a very good job of bringing doubt on the authenticity of the report. While I don't think it swayed any votes it did blunt the positiveness of the report a bit. Notice how Romney campaign itself never made any claims like that but their cronies and lackeys did all the dirty work.

Also, I think so many people were in complete and utter shock still over Obama's no show that it kind of overshadowed the good news.

[Agnosticsherbet]

15. Because a jobs report isn't an image on the screen...

TV debates are about image, about what people see and take in.

[progressivebydesign]

16. Because it's all bullshit. The corporate media is pushing a horse race. period. nt

[Mack_the_Turtle]

54. I doubt it

I wish I could believe that, but they did not do that 4 years ago. I don't think they are organized enough to suppress the truth in any conscious way. I think this race is close in the media because it is close. It should not be. Romney is as disingenuous and mendacious a politician as I've seen in my 50 years of watching politics. But we still live in the country that elected W twice (well, actually only once).

[treestar]

17. I don't understand it either

One would think a recovering economy would be way more important to people than "style" in one 90 minute TV broadcast.

[TroyD]

18. I'm wondering now whether next month's Jobs Report becomes more important than we thought

Originally it was assumed that this month's Jobs Report would be the most important.

But since it may have gotten overshadowed by the Jobs Conspiracy and the bad debate, next month's Jobs Report may take on more weight than originally thought.

If the unemployment rate goes down AGAIN it provides some good news and momentum in the final 3 or 4 days of the campaign.

[Maximumnegro]

19. Not a sexy enough story

The Obama debate damage is a much much easier story to sell than job numbers. Media is full bore on Obama slipping, that's the top story, no one wants to parse words about job numbers.

Romney controls the narrative right now.

[ModLibCentrist]

20. They will just say its manufactured

i think there is very little positive that can come out of the next jobs report.

if unemployment goes down another .1 then the right will say "its manufactured" and the media will give them all sorts of coverage like they did to that idiot Welch.

if it stays the same or goes up then the narrative becomes "see, no progress or we went backwards!".

we need to forget the jobs reports for now as I don't see it doing much good.

[geek tragedy]

21. Had the President emphasized optimism and talked up his stewardship

of the economy--auto rescue, etc--he would have benefited more.

But his campaign tactic of not associating himself with the economy means he doesn't benefit from good economic news.

That was the trade-off--taking ownership of the economy could have been damaging if the news was bad. So, they took the 'safer' approach.

[ProSense]

28. What the hell are you talking about?

It's like you're watching a different campaign.

The Obama campaign has been emphasizing the auto rescue for years. It was given huge focus at the DNC. He opened the debate with the auto industry.

PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA: Well, thank you very much, Jim, for this opportunity. I want to thank Governor Romney and the University of Denver for your hospitality.

There are a lot of points that I want to make tonight, but the most important one is that 20 years ago I became the luckiest man on earth because Michelle Obama agreed to marry me. (Laughter.) And so I just want to wish, Sweetie, you happy anniversary and let you know that a year from now, we will not be celebrating it in front of 40 million people. (Laughter.)

You know, four years ago we went through the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Millions of jobs were lost. The auto industry was on the brink of collapse. The financial system had frozen up. And because of the resilience and the determination of the American people, we've begun to fight our way back.

Over the last 30 months, we've seen 5 million jobs in the private sector created. The auto industry has come roaring back and housing has begun to rise. But we all know that we've still got a lot of work to do. And so the question here tonight is not where we've been but where we're going. Governor Romney has a perspective that says if we cut taxes, skewed towards the wealthy, and roll back regulations that we'll be better off.

I've got a different view. I think we've got to invest in education and training. I think it's important for us to develop new sources of energy here in America, that we change our tax code to make sure that we're helping small businesses and companies that are investing here in the United States, that we take some of the money that we're saving as we wind down two wars to rebuild America and that we reduce our deficit in a balanced way that allows us to make these critical investments.

Now, it ultimately is going to be up to the voters, to you, which path we should take. Are we going to double down on the top-down economic policies that helped to get us into this mess, or do we embrace a new economic patriotism that says, America does best when the middle class does best? And I'm looking forward to having that debate.

http://www.npr.org/2012/10/03/162258551/transcript-first-obama-romney-presidential-debate

He has talked about the stimulus and jobs numbers too. In fact, he has been criticized for the numbers he cites, and they're accurate.

[geek tragedy]

29. He didn't take ownership of those developments.

He didn't say why the auto industry came roaring back, or why housing was rebounding, or why there were 5 million private jobs created.

[ProSense]

33. Oh brother. n/t

[geek tragedy]

35. This matters.

He didn't talk about the fact that he saved the auto industry, and Ohio's entire economy. Or that Romney would have let them go bankrupt so that Bain capital and other vultures could feast on the carasses.

He didn't offer up his own record of policy achievements.

[ProSense]

38. Yes he did,

and you can ignore that to fit your narrative, but he's done it the entire campaign, in speeches and in ads .

[ModLibCentrist]

23. Ohio

we need to forget about all the outside factors now and just focus on this one state.

Obama cannot let Romney get close in this state. By my calculations with early voting accounted for being pretty heavy for Obama, Romney can win 50.5% of the vote to Obama's 49.5% on election day and Obama would still emerge the winner.

so for now, lets just stay ahead of Romney there and keep focus on that letting go of things that will not turn voters.

[nevergiveup]

26. The media focus was on Obama's "terrible" debate performance

and nothing was about to sidetrack this story. Think about it. I love Rachel but she only mentioned the jobs report a couple of times and has been almost obsessed with Obama's debate performance and she is supposedly one of the few true progressives in the media. The jobs report numbers should have been huge politically but they died on the vine thanks to the media.

[TwilightGardener]

45. Yes. Much more effort into making sure WE KNEW who won and lost according

to pundits--almost zero effort into examining the job numbers (except, of course, giving Jack Welch time to spout bullshit through his blowhole) and what it SHOULD MEAN for the American people and the election.

[helpisontheway]

27. Because people have probably already made their mind up about President Obama

They know if the economy is stronger to them. They do not care about the numbers. They might have been ready for a change. However, they wanted to make sure Romney could string two sentences together and he could. So now the tide has turned. Unfortunately, I do not think we can reverse it. I thought Romney's bounce was temporary. NOw I'm reading crap about upcoming PPP polls showing Romney polling stronger than ever. The only hope I have left is that maybe some people on this board are right when they say it will change once the bad days (last Friday and Saturday) drop off the Gallup polling. If Obama does not go up then that means Romney must be still polling high. It just totally sucks! : ( We had this thing almost wrapped up! All Obama had to do was close the deal. If he had even tied with Romney it probably would have been okay. But when he totally blew it and did not fight back the soft supporters left him. My sister graduated from a historically black college. Anyway, her friends (all African American) are all voting for Romney. They said they are worried about jobs. Guess they don't believe the job numbers. My sister would NEVER support Romney.

[ProSense]

31. Wait,

"My sister graduated from a historically black college. Anyway, her friends (all African American) are all voting for Romney. "

...you believe the polls showing Romney gaining, but the polls also show that Romney has little to no black support, but this anecdote is revealing?

[helpisontheway]

37. There was a poll posted the other day that showed Romney

getting a large percentage of the black vote (think it was like 15%). People posted that it was ridiculous. I do not believe that Romney would EVER get that much support from the black community. However, I think he will get higher than he was initially polling (think it was like 2% or something in most polls). I could see him possibly increasing that to 6% because of some blacks that might not be happy with Obama. And that little bit could turn a close election.

[Democratopia]

32. I think it did blunt Romney's momentum. Without it, he could have been further ahead.

[andym]

34. It's probably helping to increase Obama's favorability ratings

which are now 50% or greater in many polls. It may be affecting Romney's ceiling in the polls as well.

The VP debate, the next Presidential debate (and possibly the third debate), and the October jobs report (which comes out days before the election) will likely decide it.

[alcibiades_mystery]

39. Because Romney threw $25 million in ads at swing states...his Battle of the Bulge

Hold tight, people. He's running out of steam.

[amborin]

42. plus reed and rove,

Who each launched massive Ops in swing states prior to the debste

[alcibiades_mystery]

43. Romney's running out of cash

It's why he hasn't released his September numbers. He's hoping a good showing this week will bring in the money he needs to get through the month. This is the best he's got. This week is the best they've got. It's their Battle of the bulge.

We say NUTS! to them.

NO fucking surrender!

[amborin]

44. is campaign cash

Separate from super PAC cash? I confess I don't know the answer to this.

[alcibiades_mystery]

47. Yes, by law...why hasn't Romney released his September fundraising numbers?

Romney has not divulged his September fundraising yet. Last month, he released it on September 3. It is now October 13. Why hasn't the number been released? Obama released the Obama+Dem number: $180 million. Why isn't Romney complying with FEC disclosure on his September fundraising?

[amborin]

53. why hasn't romney released his tax returns? he thinks he's omnipotent

[MjolnirTime]

40. You really like to wallow around, don't you?

[2pooped2pop]

41. treasonous media

slant coverage as much as Baghdad Bob.

[Drunken Irishman]

46. How do you know it didn't?

It seems Romney's bounce has topped off at 2% in most polls. We don't know what role the jobs report played. It's possible his bounce could've pushed him even further ahead without the jobs report.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

49. I Hope It Is 2% Because Obama Had A 3.3% Nat'l Average Lead On The Eve Of The Debate

If we are still winning by even a point or so with all the good and bad news priced in I feel a lot better.

[FBaggins]

48. I can give you four reasons.

And I'm pretty sure that I said all but the first at the time.

1) It almost certainly DID... just not enough. It's impossible to be precise because of the varied sources and dates (and more importantly because the news for one was still ramping up as the other hit) but my guess is that a 5-6 point bounce ended up stalling in the 3-4 point range.

2) Because it wasn't that great. It was a big improvement, but 7.8 is nothing spectacular - there's no question that the economy remains weak. Plus... Forget the conspiracy theories and were still left with figures that conflict somewhat.

3) A monthly economic release simply doesn't compare to a prime time debate with 70 million viewers. Thy aren't even close.

4) Conventional wisdom says that the electorate's perception of the economy solidifies by summer time (or earlier). Good news in October is too little too late (See Bush I)

I'll add a fifth. Romney didn't gain because he "won" the debate. He gained because too many people suddenly viewed him as not as scary as they thought... As potentially acceptable. This change in perception was the "win" even had most viewers thought he lost the debate on points. I think this is why Biden was so aggressive (to undo that perception).

[WI_DEM]

50. 70 million watched the debate and I have to wonder how many heard the job numbers

When I spoke of it to people at work a few days ago (I work in a hospital) several people didn't even know the unemployment rate had declined.

[zach1845]

51. media

minimized it....little coverage.

[budkin]

52. Because numbers were "cooked"

According to the media