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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumToday's Nate's 538 Primary Polls-Only Forecast: Florida-Hillary-99%, Bernie-1%
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/florida-democratic/#polls-onlyAccording to our latest polls-only forecast, Hillary Clinton has a greater than 99% chance of winning the Florida primary.
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Today's Nate's 538 Primary Polls-Only Forecast: Florida-Hillary-99%, Bernie-1% (Original Post)
Alfresco
Mar 2016
OP
He has predicted that 4 of the 5 March 15 states will go to Hillary: FL, IL, NC & OH.
Beacool
Mar 2016
#3
I don't pay attention to 538. When did they predict Sanders would win
WhaTHellsgoingonhere
Mar 2016
#8
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)1. Florida has 214 delegates...
And current polling is Clinton 62 - Bernie 34.
A +28 margin for Clinton, if it were to hold, translates into a gain of 60ish delegates.
And the Sanders hole gets deeper and deeper.
Sid
Stallion
(6,476 posts)2. Sanders is Wearing Her Down-Should be Photo-Finish
nm
Beacool
(30,250 posts)3. He has predicted that 4 of the 5 March 15 states will go to Hillary: FL, IL, NC & OH.
There's no recent polling in Missouri.
Alfresco
(1,698 posts)4. And March 8, Michigan :-)
Its nearly a wrap.
Beacool
(30,250 posts)9. Yes, MI too.
LexVegas
(6,091 posts)6. Thats a virtual tie. nt
Stallion
(6,476 posts)15. Within Margin of Error
nm
AzDar
(14,023 posts)7. "Surrender Bernie!"
WhaTHellsgoingonhere
(5,252 posts)8. I don't pay attention to 538. When did they predict Sanders would win
in MN, OK, and CO (I'll give him the benefit of the doubt on VT)?
Did he have MA for Bernie then switch to Hillary? Or OK for Hillary? Not sure why people swear by him since all he's doing is confirming the polls the day of.
Impedimentus
(898 posts)10. Surrender Hillary (to your inner-self)
If Sec. Clinton had any integrity she would do some strong self-reflection, look into her inner-self, and see what a flawed candidate she is. Feel the Bern Sec. Clinton, surrender to your inner-self and throw your support to Sen. Sanders. You will go down in history as a great human being and the savior of her country.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)11. Excellent! Hillary will MOST DEFINITELY be the nominee ...
... I'm not exactly sure why anyone else thinks otherwise. Bernie just doesn't have the numbers. There's no viable path for him.
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)12. Dixie nt
beaglelover
(3,488 posts)13. K&R!!!!
GO HILLARY!!!!
Jitter65
(3,089 posts)14. Never fear. Between the Hillary haters here and the GOP, they will be pulling out all the stops to
thwart her candidacy. They always have. Even when she was fighting for benefits for first responders in NYC she was slammed.
oasis
(49,401 posts)16. Some DU diehards will attempt to throw "math" under the bus.
look out.