It sucks, but the reality is the reality

[Cosmocat]

I hate it, it makes me sick in the stomach.

I also was where a lot of people are now right after the debate.

I said it was what the Rs called a "sugar high" after the conventions.

But, for whatever polling that is republican skewed, ALL the metrics show that this race has turned sharply.

The national polls, the state polls, the polls of polls, intrade.

It has been sharper and more significant than the bounce from the conventions for the President.

If it were today, the president would win a fairly close election.

If the trends continue, Romney would win by late next week.

We have to HOPE that it is currently leveling, that the good economic numbers and Joe Biden's efforts have stopped the bleeding.

But, our guy has to strap them up and work absolute MAGIC on Tuesday.

He has to win, to win, but he has to do more than that to get the momentum redirected.

Even if Romney goes on stage, engages in Salah before unzipping and urinating on the audience, the right, and by extension a good portion of the media, will call it a draw or Romney win. And, a draw is a Romney win.

It defies reason, we know this president has done a DARN GOOD JOB, but this race is VERY much in flux right now.

[Pab Sungenis]

1. The question is, what do we do?

Redouble our volunteer efforts. More phone banking, more GOTV efforts.

[SEMOVoter]

3. Inertia

A pro-Romeny trend in motion will remain in motion until some action is applied. If we want to only watch the polls, they will continue on the path of a Romney win. We have to apply sufficient energy to change that course.

Our President cannot elect himself. A debate victory next week must be backed up with shoulder to shoulder support.

Just my newbie opinion.

[TroyD]

4. I think Obama needs to win both debates

Or however you 'win' such things in the eyes of the media. They may declare a 'draw' - but what matters is what the public thinks of Obama's performance.

If Obama can go up with voters, it won't matter what the media thinks.

[Pab Sungenis]

6. Not just a newbie opinion

but an accurate one.

The best thing we can do right now is GOTV. Especially in early-voting states where the election is already underway.

Get the discouraged, disaffected, apathetic, and overconfident Democrats out to the polls. We can't spare a single vote.

[Cosmocat]

11. Absolutely

FIGHT.

Cause the other side is for sure.

[alcibiades_mystery]

2. It is hereby stipulated that this is a CLOSE ELECTION

We don't have to "HOPE."

We have to get out and work. Notice that the OP doesn't mention anything about what YOU can do, other than "HOPE." That's bullshit. It's excellent that the first answer here corrected the OP by showing you exactly what you can do to conribute to this fight.

I urge you to, from now on, ignore (not as in put on ignore, but as in roll your eyes at) anybody who claims to tell you the "reality" of the race, but doesn't tell you how to fight for it.

Enough already. It's a close race. We get it. It's a streetfight.

So fucking fight already.

[Pab Sungenis]

7. That's the point.

Like I said, the "concern" posts are only discouraging if one wants to be discouraged.

See them as I see them: a call to arms. Too many people foolishly took this election for granted, and the polls now are a splash of cold water in their faces.

Everyone get out there and phone bank and GOTV.

[Cosmocat]

10. Which was the intent

A call to arms.

Not ball about how the polls are all wrong, but put our faith in President Obama to do his part, and to fight for him and the country.

[Pab Sungenis]

12. Let us not forget

McCain was ahead of Obama for a while in 2008. We knew this one would be close. You are right, we just have to work harder.

[Cosmocat]

8. Really?

Take away your bullshit attacking me personally and mis-characterizing my post, I totally agree with your post about the need to fight.

You don't know wtf I am, it was unnecessary to personalize your reply in the manner you did.

[alcibiades_mystery]

15. Your post didn't say one thing about what we should do

Other than "HOPE."

My post didn't attack you personally even once, either.

I stand by my post. I'm happy that you are clarifying that you want regular voters to get involved as well.

[Cosmocat]

20. The point

was to stop denying the reality of the polls.

Glad you stand by post where your idea of rallying the troops is to spit on one of your own team?

Add to the point, don't act all arrogant and talk down to one of the good guys.

It was a thoughtful post to set the reality of the moment and get past the disbelief in the polls.

I do plenty.

[Cosmocat]

21. Further

whatever it is that we can do, our guy has to perform, and perform well, tomorrow night.

That point stands.

Every single one of us could knock doors from now until the election 24-7, and it would not matter if he does not ring the bell.

[alcibiades_mystery]

22. How could I talk down to you

When you think so highly of yourself.



Once again, your OP failed to mention anything anyone could do. That you are revising that in thread is admirable.

[Cosmocat]

24. Really?

Very Romneyesque of you to type this load of nonsense, then tweak someone else for thinking highly of themselves.

We don't have to "HOPE."

We have to get out and work. Notice that the OP doesn't mention anything about what YOU can do, other than "HOPE." That's bullshit. It's excellent that the first answer here corrected the OP by showing you exactly what you can do to conribute to this fight.

I urge you to, from now on, ignore (not as in put on ignore, but as in roll your eyes at) anybody who claims to tell you the "reality" of the race, but doesn't tell you how to fight for it.

Enough already. It's a close race. We get it. It's a streetfight.

So fucking fight already.

Hey, everyone, I now deem that all are to roll your eyes the next time some halfwit spews some knute rockne, win one for the gipper diatribe!

[Maximumnegro]

27. What reality of the polls. Bullshit.

What poll reality come on. This crap is so predictable. Whenever a Dem uses the word 'reality' it's just another pathetic attempt at negative motivation. This is why you are getting some pushback. It's this whole losing mentality that comforts itself and braces itswelf for possible failure by pretending that a pessimistic 'reality-based' outlook is what's needed. Usually in the form of a strawman, in this case the 'polls'. Which no doubt include all the Mason Dixon, ARG, and Gravis and ignore the 2-6pt leads for most of the swing states and established reputable polls that clearly show ROmney's lead peaked.

Never mind that Ohio has been 4-6pts this ENTIRE past week.

So if you are trying to rally us please make another go.

It's like saying Hudson's character in Aliens was 'pragmatic'.

[Cosmocat]

39. Seriously?

'reality' it's just another pathetic attempt at negative motivation.

Dear god, that's pathetic.

Just hypersensitive nonsense.

Two week ago the same people who are not saying the polls are crape were laughing it up on the Rs who were balling about the polls.

So, balling around about how unfair the polling is (and not doing jack) is acceptable.

Saying the numbers are the numbers, time to deal in reality (which means rolling up sleeves versus balling about the polls) is an attempt at "negative motivation?"

We have seen what APPEARS to be a leveling out, though it is mixed, and some reversal of the momentum.

Yes, I get Ohio and the overall electoral math.

Gives me SOME relief.

But, the debate, as trumped up as it was in the spin, served as a MAJOR impactor on this election.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Bush* And Cheney Lost All Four Debates In 04 If You Can Believe The Flash Polls And Still Won.

That being said the bar was set so ridiculously low for Bush* after the first debate.

[Godless in Seattle]

9. FUCK THIS!

[treestar]

13. If it can turn around that fast, it can turn around again that fast

It has not even been that long. Things change practically from day to day.

Plus the electoral map is still hard for Mitt.

[ModLibCentrist]

14. We Will

find out by Monday if the "bleeding stopped" or if we got any bounce from Biden.

[TwilightGardener]

16. Do you get the sense that suddenly "it's NOT the economy, stupid"?

Because the economy is clearly improving. House prices up, employment numbers better, consumer confidence up. But Obama was subdued in a debate, wasn't on his best game--and THAT'S enough to make Romney win? It makes no sense. The old models and forecasts don't seem to be holding true--that if the economy rebounded, Obama would certainly win. What's going on?

[Cosmocat]

18. Oh yeah

These scumbag MFers, the last two years, when they were so confident they had the economy in limbo, every time they Fd up, the screamed every time, ALL AMERICAN WANTS TO DO IS TALK ABOUT THE ECONOMY.

The economy is on a clear, not massive, but clear uptick, and they want to talk about everything else.

I agree, just mindnumbing that BO was not brilliant, but was honest and factual, made no gaffes by what he said or how he said it, Romney lied his ever loving ass off and it was major win for him.

[ModLibCentrist]

17. Whats Going On...

is that if states like Ohio go Romney they are ungrateful to say the least. it'll be a betrayal of the highest order to vote a President out that has done so much for that state.

[bemildred]

19. Take a Valium or something. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. If the trends continue, Romney would win by late next week.

Take a statistics course and learn about reversion to the mean. Humans grow larger with every generation but there are never going to be ten feet tall humans.

[Cosmocat]

26. Really?

It's a fricken election, who the heck knows what the mean is?

Humans are bound by the limitations of our growth.

Elections can go ANYWHERE.

Romney would blow the doors off and win 40+ states, like Reagen did, BO would turn it around (as it appears we might be seeing a slow bend back, if not at least a leveling)

Again, you don't know wtf I am. I am one of the good guys, and point stands. People were running around balling about how the polls are mystically off, like they mocked the republicans for doing a week earlier.

Point was to come to grips with where the race was at the point in time that the polls are reflecting.

LOTS of high horses here.

[MjolnirTime]

30. sorry, but when you are full of shit, you're going to get called on it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. Respectfully I Will Defer To A Princeton Neuroscientist's Election Model

In national polls, the race has swung back three points since the Presidential debate to a narrow Obama lead. This return has been steady over time, and so the role of the VP debate is unclear. Combined with state polls, the data suggest that the effect of Mitt Romney’s performance was an instantaneous jump of 5.5 points, which has now subsided back to where polls were in August. The decline in the state poll meta-analysis has been blocked by Ohio. Today, President Obama’s November re-elect probability is 84% – still a Russian-roulette situation for the Democrats. [Read more ?]

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/15/the-passing-storm/

[Cosmocat]

37. one of MANY

different sources that people can hang their hats on.

I HOPE this is where it is, but the overall numbers did not reflect that at the time of the OP.

There APPEARS to be a halt to the slide, and perhaps some tangible movement back in the President's direction.

But, the point stands.

He was slowly moving toward a reasonably commanding lead and it pretty much all got chewed up in a week.

[TroyD]

41. 'still a Russian-roulette situation for the Democrats.'

What does this mean?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

44. Ever See The Deer Hunter

Last edited Mon Oct 15, 2012, 10:46 PM - Edit history (1)

When you play Russian Roulette you have a one in six chance of blowing your brains out.

[Maximumnegro]

33. but some of the polls WERE off

Goddamn. Talk about mimicing GOP, what you're saying is basically false equivalency. Gravis has already shot down as a complete FRAUD. Plouffe went ON RECORD calling the Mason Dixon FL poll 'impossible', a poll which magically came out with a horde of other GOP polls in FL preceded by the Suffolk 'FL is Romney's' remark that got smacked down by OTHER professional pollsters. You do the math.

Of course if you're nervous about the national polls come on, so Obama is losing by double digits in Oklahoma and Idaho. Big deal.

Have you paid attention to early voting returns in IA, OH, FL (Plouffe: "I like what we are seeing" in FL).

We can go on and on and on. Face it, scaredycat Dems got suckered hook line and sinker last week and this weekend the polling including the arrival of the major ones show the bounce is over but being constantly in a state of paralysis you can't see improvement for what it is.

This is just getting silly at this point.

I am going to double down and say that for all intents and purposes I believe Obama has already won. Iowa is a lock based on early voting returns. Ohio is a lock - Romney has not led in OH in months. Nevada is a lock.

Done.

[K Gardner]

34. +1+1+1, etc.

[Waiting For Everyman]

25. A lot of poll numbers since the pres. debate have been bogus.

See grantcart's threads on Gravis. There's also the switch in some legitimate polls from RV to LV, just this past weekend I think it was. LV is usually a tighter number.

Given that fact, I doubt that things are as dicey as they may seem right now.

[Cosmocat]

29. Yeah

I would not put it past the Rs to flood the pool with biased polls, but the numbers the numbers.

PPP showed the trend, the same gallup polls were all giddy about a week earlier were showing it.

Intrade was dropping like a rock.

It does seems that we have some legitimate leveling and perhaps some bending back in BOs favor.

But, I think it was in fact VERY dicey.

Either way, BO got drug down from what had been a slow, but steady upward trend, and Romney seems to have upticked a point or so and settling there.

Again, our guy has to be as great as we know he is tomorrow.

[MjolnirTime]

28. Maybe it is just your analysis that sucks.

[Cosmocat]

35. It's not "my' analysis

the numbers the numbers ...

[K Gardner]

32. WTF is wrong with you? Good god, get over yourself already. n/t

[Cosmocat]

36. uh

ok ...

[Lex]

38. Excuse me, but not all the polls are trending for Romney anymore. nt

[Cosmocat]

40. Today

saturday, when posted, not so much.

look, if it makes you feel better to think i am another boogyman, have at it.

[Lex]

43. "If the trends continue, Romney would win by late next week."

But they didn't.

I'm just a little weary of the posters who seem to take delight in posting doom-and-gloom threads.

[Cosmocat]

45. oh, I was not delighted, I LOVED IT!

I like this president A LOT and support him at all times in public discussion, have been very politically active for the last 15 years, work my elections poll, will phone bank the weekend going into the election, have my signs up in my yard and several common areas I put them in, have 1,000s of posts her at DU communicating my complete exasperation with the lunacy of republicans.

But, I was absolutely GIDDY, I mean I took complete DELIGHT in posting what I posted.

What is tiresome is people wanting to demonize good democrats for engaging in political discussions on a political discussion board.

[Maximumnegro]

42. You are not a bogeyman. You are

just not helping. You are used to losing and have the 'abused' mentality. You might as well be chain smoking and nursing a black eye while you type. This excellent quote from the Princeton election site sums it up:

As I said, I think Romney’s win probability is about 16%. To a Democrat, that’s a six-shooter with one shell labeled “R-outcome”. To a Republican, it’s loaded with five shell labeled “D-outcome”. Yet in comments, the Republicans are the giddy ones. This says so much to me about both sides.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

46. From The Comment Section Of Said Article

Peter Principle // Oct 15, 2012 at 12:56 pm

Some pollster wrote Josh Marshall over at TPM and noted that whenever his polls show Republicans losing, they want to kill him, but whenever his polls show Democrats losing they want to kill themselves.

Goes with the territory, I guess.

It may be a generational thing: If you’re a Democrat and you came of political age in the late 70s, and your formative years were the 80s and early 90s, then you probably spent a lot of time internalizing the message that Republicans usually win and Democrats usually lose.

I speak from personal experience on this.

Sam Wang // Oct 15, 2012 at 11:48 am

I worked in Congress for a year, 1995-96. When I arrived in Washington DC, my favorite Democrat was Adlai Stevenson. When I left, it was Lyndon Johnson. Democrats can fight.

[bemildred]

47. Reality is reality, and bullshit is bullshit. This is bullshit. nt