Presidential polls...

[cheriemedium59]

Polls..polls...polls...

The big question for me is how can the President go into such a free fall
within 2 weeks????

It makes no sense. The job numbers are up, unemployment is going down, consumer confidence is up, the auto industry has made a nice comeback, Bin Laden is dead, our troops are coming home, and I am supposed to believe that one not so good debate causes all of this? Sorry I don't buy it.

I remember the 2 elections that put and kept "W" in the White House.

But no matter what, I am proud to be a liberal/progressive standing tall in the 'we' party instead of the 'me' party. Standing tall on the side of 'truth and compassion' instead of 'lies and detachment'.

[Fgiriun]

1. I agree

And I think the media has caused the damage.

[cheriemedium59]

2. me too

[Democratopia]

3. The reason is that there are low-information voters out there

who, after seeing the debate, believed Mitt Romney is a moderate man with a plan to make things better. Obama didn't do enough to correct that. Next time he will.

[Mass]

4. There was no free fall. Polls average a week ago were about +3 for Obama. They are now about +1 for

Romney (and most of it was a difference in who answers the polls). This is not a free fall. For once, I agree with Rasmussen that this race was a tie and is still a tie.

This said, we tend to go through period of irrational exuberance and irrational depression. So, if we could get out of this depression and get people to vote, we'll be fine. If we continue to lament about the polls, say the polls are wrong, ... we'll lose.

And of course, there is the media narrative that has changed from "Obama is going to win" to "Obama is going to lose", increasing the fall in the polls and the depression among Democrats.

[TroyD]

5. Because the debate was a knockout

I think that's what confuses some people who ask this question. Normally debates don't have a big effect. This one did. It wasn't a draw. It was knockout in favor of Romney. When that happens, it becomes one of the small occasion in which debates do matter.

Thus, the change in the polls from a solid Obama lead, to a narrow Romney lead nationally, and Obama going to 60/40 in Nate Silver's model.

[Dawgs]

6. +1. And the debate was really that bad for President.

I personally think that there is plenty of time for Obama to turn things around, but that debate was as bad as it looked.

[RedSpartan]

7. Yes.

I think a lot of people out there were looking for an excuse to vote for Romney, and they got it at the debate. I fear it may be too late to turn that around. I think this will be as close as 2000 and 2004 and will probably come down to Ohio, whereas before the debate we were looking at an electoral college blowout.

[HopeHoops]

8. The media needs to pretend it is a close race for two reasons: 1) ads; 2) credibility.

1) Ads: If they pretend it's a close horse race, they get viewers. That means ad dollars.

2) Credibility: If they pretend it's a close horse race, then they can call it however they like on election night - again, more ad money.

No, it isn't statistically possible for the numbers to have changed that much in two weeks. All you have to do is alter the sample demographics to get the results you want. Statistics 101.