2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumMassachusetts and Virginia were huge wins for Hillary.
These wins establish that she is capable of winning outside of the south. Virginia, although historically is considered a southern state, its really not at all. VA is more like Pennsylvania than Georgia. These wins suggest that Hillary will do well in the rust belt states and midwest. If so, Bernie cannot possibly win the nomination. The west coast and other caucus states are not enough to make up the gap.
tymorial
(3,433 posts)IT wouldn't matter who was the nominee come November. Massachusetts would still go blue. It has for more than 30 years.
Virginia is more telling... the fact that she lost Minnesota and Colorado is troubling in my opinion.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Gotta win that first.. right?
tymorial
(3,433 posts)I support Sanders but I don't see him winning at this point so I was looking at this from a November perspective.
retrowire
(10,345 posts)The contest is only 24% done and Obama didn't win Super Tuesday either.
way too soon to throw in the towel.
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)tymorial
(3,433 posts)Agschmid
(28,749 posts)Grammer error the first time around, sorry.
tymorial
(3,433 posts)If you took it that way I apologize. I misunderstood the OP, I thought he was referring to the general and not further primary elections. I meant that a majority of Massachusetts voters will support a democrat candidate come November because this state in particular is all but a foregone conclusion. I did not imply that any particular vote is irrelevant or that the voter doesn't have their own personal reasons for why they vote in a particular way.
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)tabasco
(22,974 posts)thesquanderer
(11,990 posts)Candidates lose states big in the primaries and win them in the GE all the time (and vice versa).
Seeing how Clinton fares against Sanders in ANY state does not tell you how either would fare against Trump (or whoever) in that state.
The OP considers Hillary's MA win significant, not because of anything having to do with the general, but because he feels it bodes well for her to be able to win other non-southern primary states.
Personally, I don't see that significance, though. I mean, I think everyone expected her to win some non-southern states regardless, and MA was no blow out (and AFAIK was never expected to be a blowout). With about 1 point difference, it could as easily have gone the other way, and I think Hillary would be none the worse off for it, in terms of what it bodes for other primaries. When it's 49-point-something for one candidate and 50-point something for the other, bragging rights aside, I don't think it matters which candidate is which in terms of those figures' ability to represent a bellwether for other states.
EndElectoral
(4,213 posts)Agschmid
(28,749 posts)Bernie had been claiming Mass for a week.
noamnety
(20,234 posts)I thought generally outperforming or underperforming was based on comparisons to polls.
Hillary Clinton Holds Eight-Point Edge Over Bernie Sanders in Massachusetts - Feb 28 http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511366618
Hillary opens up ... 11% lead in Massachusetts. Feb 29
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511375829
U-Mass Amhert Poll: HRC leads 47-44 feb 29 (thread notes poll is from Feb 19 and her lead widened tp 11%)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/110759868
This is just a quick search - but the conclusion I draw is that Bernie outperformed expectations and Hillary fell significantly short of expectations in MA.
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)As recently as the day before his campaign was ramping up expectations.
noamnety
(20,234 posts)Did Hillary's camp announce she was planning to lose Mass? (I don't think so.)
Did Bernie's camp actually say they expected to win? (I don't think so - but I may have missed it, and I'm open to a quote saying they expected a win)
Who did the polls show as winning? I know this was Hillary all around.
What is your standard for who you expect to win? Do you listen exclusively Bernie's camp, or do you also weight (perhaps more heavily) what Hillary's camp says or what the polls predict?
I know Hillary dramatically underperformed the recent polls I saw here for MA.
I strongly suspect she underperformed her own campaign's expectations, and clearly she underperformed what her supporters here were predicting.
I think you're picking your baseline to create the narrative you want to tell.
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)And again...
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/week-transcript-chris-christie-ted-cruz-bernie-sanders/story?id=37242166
But I'm in Minnesota now. We think we're going to do very well in Minnesota on Super Tuesday, Colorado we're going to do well, Oklahoma we're going to do well. I think we're going to win in Massachusetts. And I believe we're going to win in Vermont. And we're going to do better than people think in other states.
George, we began this campaign, as you know, at 3 percent in the polls, 60 or 70 points behind Secretary Clinton. We have come a very long way. Our message about a rigged economy -- rich get richer, everyone else gets poorer -- is resonating.
So yes even Bernie underperformed what Bernie was projecting.
noamnety
(20,234 posts)The other two stand - why are you excluding all the polls and hillary's campaign when determining whether either candidate over or underperformed?
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)Bernie was ahead in the polls until South Carolina, then things shifted. It's clear Mass was in flux right through Election Day, and all the polls show that.
sgmcenroe
(30 posts)HRC can run the south but come November it will go Republican. It is the GOP heartland and is as red as the red in the rebel flag they love so much. About the only south state up for grabs would be Florida. This election is far from over. Feel the Bern - he is only getting started.
LexVegas
(6,091 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)And NoVA dominates in elections.
LexVegas
(6,091 posts)Its an urban affluent metropolitan area loaded with professionals who are mostly not from Virginia originally.
LexVegas
(6,091 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)I can tell you its vastly different.
LexVegas
(6,091 posts)I have a child that is going to be going to college there in the Fall. My sister attended George Mason. Northern Virginia is more diverse than many areas of Virginia, but Virginia is a Southern state, always will be. We will have to agree to disagree.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I lived in Mississippi and Arkansas for nearly 10 years. The culture and people there are nothing like NoVA or Virginia for that matter.
LexVegas
(6,091 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)metroins
(2,550 posts)And live in Texas.
NoVa would not be considered south to me in the slightest.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Not sure how anyone would see that differently who has actually lived in both places.
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)They literally might as well be on different planets.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)LexVegas
(6,091 posts)What does that have to do with whether NoVA is "Southern" or not?
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)For me, (as someone from the Northeast, so an outsider), Virginia didn't feel anything like Alabama.
LexVegas
(6,091 posts)auntpurl
(4,311 posts)There is a whole range of things that were different. Food, culture, politics, economy, attitudes towards all sorts of things. Some good, some bad. Just different.
LexVegas
(6,091 posts)6chars
(3,967 posts)There is a pretty strong correlation between Clinton margin of victory (or defeat) and AA percentage in the state.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)Make no mistake... get outta No.Va, and it is a very southern state. But No.Va really pulls the state away from that.
Yeah, a win for Hillary there is a big deal. But MA.... that's an even bigger deal.
Although I'm extremely pleased about both wins!
Mass is likely to go blue no matter what in November. We need a candidate who can inspire out voters in VA, PA, OH, FL to win the general. Virginia is the one that made me feel safer last night.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)I agree that MA will be blue in Nov. and VA is more at risk. I do hope that AA voters turn out big for her in VA in Nov.
I was talking more about Hillary to win in a state that demographically is in Bernie's top 10.
Sancho
(9,070 posts)She is popular with immigrants, PR transplants, and women. Hillary would beat Trump with independents here.
Even retired GOPers would prefer Hillary to Trump.
Floridians have multimillions in Wall Street, they don't want to tear it down. More than 25% in Fl were born outside the US. They don't go for Trump's stupid rhetoric. There is a fairly large muslim population here too. If Trump is the nominee, Hillary should beat him. Trump is another Rick Scott, and he is pretty unpopular here.
I think Hillary will beat any of the leading GOPers in FL, with the only serious competition from Rubio.
obamanut2012
(26,111 posts)And, Central Florida is becoming blue due to the population becoming more diverse.
The county I live in in FL literally has several times the population of Vermont, and most of those voters are solidly blue. They will vote D in November. The Republicans I know here are very afraid of Trump and won't vote for him. They will vote for Rubio.
tymorial
(3,433 posts)How is a democrat winning a primary in a forgone conclusion blue state indicative of something other than the already guaranteed electoral votes in November?
vdogg
(1,384 posts)Red states don't matter. Now the meme is blue states don't matter? Or maybe, as I suspect, you guys are really trying to say that states that Hillary won don't matter.
tymorial
(3,433 posts)not the primaries. When it comes to the general, it doesn't matter that Hillary won Massachusetts because MA would go blue regardless of who won. For the rest of the states, a Massachusetts win could produce momentum unless people actually look at the numbers. She didn't win Massachusetts by a significant margin.
Nanjeanne
(4,974 posts)big comedown. Not a huge win. She should have creamed him here. Not won by 1%. The difference in delegates is +2 for Clinton.
Great that she won Virginia. But MA? A win is a win I guess. But not much of a win to be gloating IMHO.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)He has no road to victory now.
Nanjeanne
(4,974 posts)JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)That was a big loss for Bernie.
Nanjeanne
(4,974 posts)Winning it in 2008 by 15+% points over Barack Obama?
It's a 2 delegate 1% loss for Sanders. Hillary should have beaten him by as much as she beat Obama. Why not? Did the state demographics change from 2008?
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)Not to mention it borders Bernie's home state and NH where she got shellacked. And it is a state with the 3rd highest share of white liberals and filled with colleges.
Nanjeanne
(4,974 posts)To VT. And the other "candidates" won less than 3% of the vote together. You know facts are easy to research and much more interesting than spin.
But if it makes you feel better to believe that the ex Senator from NY is far from MA and that her previous campaigning and winning the state (and being First Lady) amounts to being virtually unknown in MA - then by all means hold that fantasy close to you.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)voted more for Bernie. Clinton's support was mostly around the Boston area.
If this holds true, than NY could go Bernie's way BIG, because I know that there is a ton of support for him in NYC. I see it all the time.
obamanut2012
(26,111 posts)NE tends to vote for its own.
Nanjeanne
(4,974 posts)Is ex Senator. Got it.
obamanut2012
(26,111 posts)I said Bernie is a NE Senator, and New Englanders tend to vote for their own. HRC isn't currently an elected official anywhere in New England.
Good lord.
Nanjeanne
(4,974 posts)Good grief. How could I have been so dumb as to not realize that. I mean I'm a NE person. Thanks for those facts. I guess that explains everything!
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)for anyone but the Wall St. crowd, and the ultra rich in Westchester an the like.
For regular folks, she did less than nothing.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)stonecutter357
(12,697 posts)Octafish
(55,745 posts)First Lady. Senator. Presidential Candidate 2008. Secretary of State. Presidential Candidate 2016.
vs.
Senator Socialist.
We need more information. Like Virginia being more like open-carry Texas.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Octafish
(55,745 posts)Those who got money, got speech.
Those without money: too bad, so sad. No speech for you.
And those without money who want broadcasters and publishers with money to share what riches they enjoy through progressive tax policy and regulation such as the Fairness Doctrine: Get the hell out of here!
Not arguing with you, DCBob. Just stating my side. Congratulations to Ms. Clinton on her victory in Massachusetts!
DCBob
(24,689 posts)His message simply doesn't connect with the majority of Democrats... its that simple.. no arguing needed.
LibDemAlways
(15,139 posts)directly to traditional Democratic party values. Looking out for the interests of ordinary people is what it boils down to -- giving everyone a fair shot. And millions have enthusiastically responded with their hard earned dollars and their time.
If you think that Bernie's message doesn't resonate with the "majority" of Democrats, then perhaps you, and they, are in the wrong party.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)You have no right defining who are "real" Democrats and suggesting that we who support Hillary should leave the party.
on that.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)Octafish
(55,745 posts)He's the governor of Indiana.
And the northeast is different. We have small states and are pretty tight knit. They even call NY, NJ, and CT the Tri-state area".
Octafish
(55,745 posts)Kasich and a ham sandwich, not so much.
jillan
(39,451 posts)jillan
(39,451 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)His path to victory is essentially gone if Hillary can win a state like MA.
jillan
(39,451 posts)states. Bernie doesn't.
Bernie needed to win OK to show he can win in a state that was not a liberal state.
And a 1.7% is not a decisive win. The delegates will most likely be spilt 50/50.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)That was always in doubt but now its virtually certain he won't with Hillary's big wins in MA and VA.
jillan
(39,451 posts)keep telling yourself that, go right ahead.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)If Bernie cant win in a state like MA where is he going to win?
FailureToCommunicate
(14,020 posts)the count. Saugus and Salem (majority Bernie) JUST finished reporting at 11:a.m.
Not that it helps a lot but it helps. Certainly not a "huge" win in a state she carried over Obama by 15%.
obamanut2012
(26,111 posts)And was purple for a long time, and is no solidly light blue imo. NOVA, Hampton Roads, Charlottesville, Richmond, and a few other areas range from blue to deep blue, and they hold most of Virginia's population. Like NC and FL, gerrymandering has messed up Congressional elections over the years.
So yes, a very nice win for Hillary!
I also agree that MA was an essential for Bernie to show he COULD win, no matter what the margin was.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)obamanut2012
(26,111 posts)Yes!
yardwork
(61,698 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Her big win there suggests she will do well in the other western and southwestern states and probably California.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Its not about winning delegates in MA.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)You managed to forget her margin in 2008 was much larger, and every politician in MA except Warren endorsed her.
You keep reminding people that Sanders is no Obama....yet Clinton did far better against Obama in MA, even with Ted Kennedy endorsing Obama. This time all the Kennedys endorsed Clinton.
Your attempt to attach symbolism is leaving out a lot of history.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)But with her wins in MA and VA she will likely do well enough outside the south to block Bernie from making any significant gains.
Hiraeth
(4,805 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)A blowout similar to GA there and other neighboring rust belt and mid-Atlantic states will surely be the end for Senator Sanders.
Hiraeth
(4,805 posts)auntpurl
(4,311 posts)I feel optimistic that Hillary will beat Bernie there. It's got a very strange, diverse demographic. Northeast liberal urban populations in Philly and (coming in recent years) Pittsburgh. Might as well be Kentucky in much of the rest of the state. I think Hillary will appeal to hard-core Dems and minorities in urban areas, and moderates in the rural areas.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I predict another big win there for Hillary.
gordianot
(15,242 posts)RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)The number of delegates is roughly the same.
Stop leaving steaming piles of bovine fecal matter around here. They really stink!
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Since you didn't even read my explanation which has nothing to do with the margin of victory in MA.
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)If you meant differently, you should have put it in your stinky title.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)Your comment saying that Bernie cannot possibly win the nomination is even more unsavory. Especially with Clinton only leading by a 3:2 margin and there being 70% of the states left.
By implying that Sanders supporters should not support him, Clinton is inevitable, is most offensive.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I just think its hopeless given what happened last night.
This is a discussion board and I am posting my opinion of where I think this race stands. I think that's allowed here.
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)I see.
AlbertCat
(17,505 posts)Never ever been there I see.
I love the "historically is considered a southern state" part. Richmond, in case you don't know, was the CAPITAL of the Confederacy.
Geez... I hope all Hillary supporters are not this clueless!
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Any idiot knows Richmond was the capital of confederacy... so what? Northern Virginia is what dominates the elections here and NoVA is nothing like anything in the deep south. I guess you've never been there.
AlbertCat
(17,505 posts)The vast majority of VA is very very Southern.
I lived there for years. Those who never leave the extended bubble of the DC area have not seen VA.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)OkSustainAg
(203 posts)Mass. was a virtual tie. Bernie gets as many regular delegates. Bernie does better in blue states. I'm glad we are going into blue states now.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)It has nothing to do with the margin of victory in MA.
mhatrw
(10,786 posts)against a corporate media ignored/despised "socialist" in some non-Southern states.
She also proved she can win big in a non-Southern state if you claim a Southern state is a non-Southern state.
It's sad what the Democratic party reduced itself to when it agreed to do everything in its power to coronate her so Republicans could secure all three branches of the federal government for the foreseeable future.
Even Marion Barry would have been a better candidate. At least he does not face a probable future indictment during the upcoming general election.