Big Surprises of the Night

[alcibiades_mystery]

1) Bernie's healthy margins in Colorado and Minnesota - these were thought to be closer, even if many were saying they were probably Bernie states and probably must wins last week. Not a surprise that he took them, but his margins are to be applauded.

2) Hillary's margins down South. Look, most people expected big victories in the Southern states for Hillary. Her edge among African American voters in those states has been clear. But the polls had her +18, +20, +25. She won every Southern state and Texas by more than 30 points.

3) Yes, Massachusetts. It was a dogfight. Polls three weeks ago would have called it a Bernie state. Polls starting Friday showed a sharp movement to Hillary, even 10+ point leads. The final numbers, close, but for Hillary, are a surprise, I think. The distribution is a surprise, too. Bernie made little headway in Boston Metro, losing some areas by 25+ points. He lost all the major and minor cities, including Pittsfield out west, and Worcester, where he had held a major rally. He lost Springfield 60-40; he lost Boston proper by 16 points, 20,000 votes - pretty much the whole margin was lost in Boston itself. That's a big surprise, I think. Let that sink in: Bernie did not carry any of the major and minor cities in Massachusetts (with the exception of Somerville, which he won big). He lost Lowell, he lost Lynn, he lost Falmouth, he lost Fall River, he lost the Mass Turnpike from Back Bay to 290. He lost fucking Cambridge by 2,000 votes! (He did clobber Hillary in Amherst). The vote pattern in Massachusetts does not look like a political revolution taking hold.

4) Oklahoma: Good on Bernie. Good organization!

[ismnotwasm]

1. K&R

[JaneyVee]

2. Bernie campaign predicted 5 states, but only got 4.

Hardly a good night for him. Not bad, but definitely not good. And his performance among minority voters is embarrassing.

[alcibiades_mystery]

3. I thought 4: CO, MN, MA, VT

Wasn't expecting OK, but I didn't really think about it, either.

The MA loss stings, regardless of how close it will end up being. The distribution of the loss looks like a typical GOP-DEM race with the Dem winning the population centers and the GOPers pulling large margins across the rural areas. Look at the actual map. We've seen that pattern a thousand times.

[JaneyVee]

4. Bernie campaign predicted OK b/c they were +11 in a recent poll.

The only surprise for Bernie tonight was losing MA.

[alcibiades_mystery]

5. True.

[JonLeibowitz]

6. Embarrassing? How so? It may doom his campaign, I admit, but how it is embarrassing to him?

[nadinbrzezinski]

7. It is dooming nothing

this is still very competitive.

This is the 2008 primary

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Tuesday,_2008

Go look at MA

[JonLeibowitz]

10. Not the specific results, don't get me wrong. Obviously things could turn out either way in the end

But the fact that PoC aren't voting for him all that much is very problematic. Not just because of the delegate count which Clinton leads in, but in the narrative it sets. The media will love to now characterize him as a grassroots icon who only has appeal with white liberals. The NYT has been all too eager to do so.

From a little-d democratic perspective, what concerns me most of all of this is that now Clinton will spurn any challenges for further debates. We won't be able to keep her to her "promises" as easily without more debates. She will soon pivot to her natural center-right positions (she ran as a center candidate to be acceptable to the Democratic party) and the only thing the Left can do is complain (or something else...).

[nadinbrzezinski]

12. I am going to say something that might shock some of the supporters on both sides here

but PoC are far from monolithic. (Why I get beyond pissed when some folks say they speak for all.. they don't)

And now the map is moving to places that were affected by the great migration, as well as the West and other regions. These are far less, generally speaking, there are details that do not fit this pattern, far less conservative.

Communities are very different. Remember Ashley Williams confronting Hillary ? That story, to my shock and surprise, has not registered among either Latino or AA in San Diego, Why? The election might as well be decades from now. So for the most part, people are not paying attention.

So what we in the web think is YUUGGE, it is not. And the communities are very different. Hell they are different in SoCal, from town to town as well.

The country at best has 5 very distinct macro regions, The same applies for minority communities.

The same goes for hispanics by the way. We are not a singular block either. For example, for cultural reasons I expect Marco Rubio to do very well with older Cuban Americans and somewhat well with some Salvadorans. there is a lot of tension, for real between Cubans and Salvadorans. Mexicans, depends where in the country they hail from. And as a Jew, same applies.

See what I am saying. I would almost bet Bernie would do better among Mexicans from the northern part of Mexico and suck with the southern part of the country, for example. And there are cultural reasons for this. Mexico has at least four culturally distinct regions, and those translate to immigrant communities in the states.

And I know this will piss some folks.

[basselope]

8. Actually, predicted 4. Always said that MA would be a dogfight.

It turned out to be a tie.

[nadinbrzezinski]

9. Oh com'on facts what is it with you?

(I kid, I kid)

[mhatrw]

11. Deep red states are deep red for a reason. nt