Presidential Polls 2012: Obama Gaining Huge Momentum to Be Reelected in November (10/12/12) 7pm EST

[courseofhistory]

The Good News:

Barring a major political or governmental catastrophe within the next three-and-a-half weeks, this most likely represents the nadir of Obama's potential political standing. Because polls show Romney's immediate post-debate momentum leveling out, it's unlikely that Obama will do any worse than indicated above; likewise, because the president will benefit from the same low expectations that helped Romney in the first debate (as I explained in my two editorials before and after that event), the chances are quite strong that his next two debate performances will be deemed either victories or draws for him, both of which will help offset the negative effects of his perceived defeat on October 3rd (although obviously victories will do so to a greater extent). As such, assuming that Biden's victory over Ryan has little to no effect on Obama's overall standing (which I think is likely, as explained in my pre-and-post debate editorials here and here), the main question is whether those two debates will be able to cancel out the effects of the first one ... and if so, by how much.

Unlike infamous debate gaffes by other presidents (most notably Gerald Ford claiming "there is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe" in 1976), Obama's problems involved not the substance of what he said (at the very least, fact-checkers have made it clear that Romney can be accused of just as many misstatements as right-wingers might attribute to Obama), but rather the style in which he said it, which was viewed as unduly distracted, deferential, and even withdrawn. Although popular mythology claims that this can destroy a presidential campaign (the most widely-cited example of this being the first presidential debate between John Kennedy and Richard Nixon in 1960, which was brilliantly analyzed by contemporary reporter Theodore H. White in a book whose sequel inspired my passion for American politics and history, The Making of the President - 1960), precedent shows that such negative impressions are usually temporary, especially if subsequent debates can take them out of the news cycle. If that pattern holds up today, it suggests that Obama will probably recover somewhat between now and November 6th.

Let's assume the worst case scenario (again, barring a markedly negative jobs report, an inexplicable repeat by the president of his earlier debating errors, or any kind of unforeseeable political pothole for Obama or Romney), one in which the two debates are deemed draws. Even if Obama only averages a one-to-two point bounce between national and swing state polls as a result ... a fraction of what Romney received after the first debate ... he would still either tie up or take a slight lead in the overall popular vote, as well as secure Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada for an Electoral College margin of 299 to 239. In the best case scenario, of course he would be declared triumphant in both debates (or at least the first one, which matters most) and reclaim his earlier five-plus point lead in the national vote, as well as win all of the aforementioned swing states (save North Carolina, which is probably out of reach now) for a 332 to 206 victory in the Electoral College. My suspicion is that the reality will fall somewhere between these two extremes, with Obama doing well enough to mildly reverse Romney's momentum without reaching his August and September highs. As the math makes clear, though, this would still give him enough of an advantage to win three-and-a-half weeks from now.

...

Nevertheless, the fact remains that Obama's bottoming out only gives Romney a slight lead. This means that, given the right combination of political skill and good luck, a realistic possibility exists that the president will be re-elected on November 6th.

http://www.policymic.com/articles/16434/presidential-polls-2012-obama-gaining-huge-momentum-to-be-reelected-in-november

[BluegrassDem]

1. Thanks for posting!

We need some uplift around here.

[aletier_v]

2. This isn't a Nate Silver article, is it?

[courseofhistory]

3. NO! It's Policymic n/t

[budkin]

4. The last sentence of this article sucks

"This means that, given the right combination of political skill and good luck, a realistic possibility exists that the president will be re-elected on November 6th."

A realistic possibility? It makes no sense to add this onto the end of an article in which you are basically saying that Obama is gaining "huge momentum to be reelected in November." It deflates your whole argument.

[courseofhistory]

5. Write to the OP author

and ask him why he chose this headline/title and get back to us. Click on his picture on the articl page to contact him.

[speedoo]

6. It's really a crap article, isn't it.

Not worth reading, at least for me.

[CobaltBlue]

7. ...

Bad writing.

[AverageJoe90]

8. Could have been a little better written, but still a very good article.

Thanks for posting this, courseofhistory.

[bemildred]

9. Babble. nt

[TroyD]

10. There's also an article out by a Las Vegas Oddsmaker predicting a Romney win

So it seems everyone is getting in on the act.