NYT's 538 Forecast...

[BlueDemKev]

...has Obama's chances of winning have slipped all the way down to just 61%. It was around 80% before the debate debacle last week, but he has been in a bad fall ever since he allowed Romney to dominate that debate nine days ago. Florida, Virginia, and Colorado are now in Romney's column.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

This is really getting scary, folks. Ohio is probably going to decide the election. As I've said before, Obama MUST sweep PA, OH, MI, and WI and then pick up either IA, NV, or CO to get over 270 electoral votes. I'm not worried about the margin of victory. All I can about is GETTING the victory on Nov. 6.

[abumbyanyothername]

1. Without IA, NV or CO

O can take PA, OH, MI, WI and NH . . . plus Omaha in NE for exactly 270.

[Baitball Blogger]

2. This has been rehashed here already. We're waiting for the next set of polls.

[MFM008]

8. I need

some re- hash with my eggs and toast. Training thoughts on Ohio and Iowa.

[CoffeeCat]

3. Obama will win Iowa...I can tell you that.

Obama has been ahead in every poll taken in Iowa.

Early voting began in Iowa a couple of weeks ago, and Democratic ballots outnumbered Republican ballots by a 5:1 margin. Turnout has been heavy.

We don't have any ludicrous voter ID laws, as they were all rejected. Our stupid Sec of State, in a hasty plot to appease the criminal Romney Republicans--passed "emergency voter ID laws" all by himself. Wasn't that nice? Well, a judge rejected those laws and they are no longer on the books.

Iowan's have a special place in their hearts for Obama--as we delivered his win in the Iowa caucuses. We're pretty proud of that and we remain loyal.

The ground game here is amazing too.

Obama will take Iowa.

[abumbyanyothername]

5. Hawkeyes!

Mom and Dad have already voted Obama from Council Bluffs. Let's hope that son and daughter in law forget to vote. Or even better, grandson arrives on election day and they can't vote!

[smackd]

6. this post is fantastic. thanks. (nm)

[Baitball Blogger]

9. My dad was born in Iowa and raised in Ohio.

And he lives in Florida. I say we got for the Trifecta!

[flamingdem]

24. Thanks CC! That's good news nt

[BlueDemKev]

26. Thanks for the encouragement...

...I needed that. : )

[nycbiscuit]

4. eh...

Romney could take FL, NC, VA, and OH and Obama would still win with WI, NH, CO, NV, IA

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/electoral-map#CO-D,FL-R,IA-D,NV-D,NH-D,OH-R,PA-D,VA-R,WI-D

[Baitball Blogger]

10. Colorado?

Is that even in the game?

[TroyD]

15. Obama was winning Colorado until last week

And he won it by a large margin in 2008.

It also has a Democratic Governor and Two Democratic Senators.

If it is now leaning Romney, that is because of the debate.

[BlueDemKev]

25. You forgot Michigan

Michigan would have to fit into that equation if we're shut out in the big trifecta...that being OH, VA, and FL.

[amborin]

7. yes, look at the main page

Forecast. This is Romney's best day ever and he is only at 38.9%.

Obama remains way ahead!

be positive!

[Baitball Blogger]

11. Where have you been all day?

[amborin]

21. not following--

My point is that Nate's Nov 6 forecast still has Obama's chances WAY ahead of Romney's. Obama is winning, and will win! Stay positive and work hard!

[Baitball Blogger]

22. I was relieved you came along. That's what I was saying.

So much gloom and doom for Friday dump day. I am more now inclined that the right is trying to influence the poll numbers intentionally to demoralize us. We need to get ARG, Gravis and the other idiot pollster out of the formula. That should be our mission.

[amborin]

32. agree

And besides slanted pollsters, they've got keyboard warriors trying to demoralize. They know it saps enthusiasm. Dems are WAY ahead in totals of registered voters in all swing states except Colorado. But we need registered to become likely. When people get demoralized, they tend to stay home.

[boxman15]

12. I look at it this way:

Yes, things aren't looking nearly as good as they were two weeks ago when we were looking at 2008 Pt. 2.

Instead, the race has reverted to what we thought it would look like at the beginning of the year: A close election, but one in which Obama has a distinct advantage in the Electoral College.

You said it. Ohio is the key. If Obama can win that (and he's off to a good start with early voting), there is very little chance Romney can win. Plus, Obama has multiple paths to victory with or without the Buckeye state. Romney, meanwhile, has to win just about every one of the "Big 4" swing states (FL, OH, VA, NC) and still take a couple of the smaller ones.

In the end, I think Obama wins with 290-248 electoral votes (taking OH, IA, WI, CO, NV and losing VA, NC, FL, with the popular vote being extremely narrow). Obama has more margin for error, and that comforts me.

[TroyD]

16. 'In the end, I think Obama wins with 290-248 electoral votes'

290-298?

[BlueDemKev]

29. True, but...

...with Florida and Virginia slipping away, Ohio is ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL. We CANNOT lose there. If we lose OH, VA, NC, and FL, our only prayer is to win ALL of these: MI, WI, IA, CO, NV, and NH--a VERY tall order indeed.

Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin...the three-part combination to the White House for President Obama.

[yellowcanine]

13. I think Obama is still the odds on favorite to take Ohio and the election. I also think he will win

Colorado and New Mexico on the strength of his advantage with Hispanic voters. Obama'a advantage with Hispanics is unprecedented so it is likely there will be at least one surprise because of it and I think North Carolina may be it with Arizona also clearly in play on election night. And Florida could be decided in Obama's favor on the strength of Hispanic votes. The Cuban influence there has been significantly blunted by non Cuban Hispanics. Obviously the margins are tight so nothing is a sure bet but the fundamentals, including a slowly improving economy, do favor Obama.

[AverageJoe90]

14. I think this is being overblown a bit.

See my topic on what may be some serious issues with Nate Silver's most recent modeling here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=1529116

[Firebirds01]

17. Voter Suppression

We may still be in the lead, but if it is close it presents a problem. Republican voter suppression in swing states is going to skim a few percentages away from the Dems (or in the case of electronic voting machines, just invent votes for the Repubs).

If the election is considered close people will think Romneys win is legitimate and that people talking about fraud are conspiracy theorists.

If it's close it WILL get stolen.

[TroyD]

18. Well, as I've been asking for months . . .

Why is it so easy to commit electoral theft in the United States of America?

This is not the case in other Western countries.

[Firebirds01]

19. Elections are up to the states

and the states often leave it up to the counties. So you have thousands of different elections. I think race has a lot to do with it. People dont want african americans to vote so they commit fraud. The people who wrote the laws and were supposed to watch fo fraud didnt like african americans so they allowed loopholes for fraud to be written into the law.

[immoderate]

33. Other countries count ballots by hand. Here GOP owns the voting machines.

--imm

[Brewinblue]

20. OMG, Alaska is pure red

and it is our largest state!!!!1111

[BlueDemKev]

28. Largest state? Only by landsize.

Alaska is one of the least-populated states in the country (and virtually all of its population is dotted along the southern part of the state). It has less electoral votes than Rhode Island.

[ModLibCentrist]

23. Concerning...

Intrade saw Obama's per state numbers PLUNGE yesterday. Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, CO, and VA all dipped big time yesterday.

[Tigress DEM]

27. They can't steal a LANDSLIDE!! So don't worry about it.

[OhZone]

30. Isn't a lot of this based on

suspicious polls and switches to "likely" voters?

[Left Brain]

31. All the way DOWN?

Hah, that's hilarious.
Sixty-one percent is nearly TWO-THIRDS!
Glass is nearly two-thirds full, and our team is all the way down...

Thanks for your concern. Now lets work together to get out the vote!

[MSMITH33156]

34. Well, it ticked up a little bit

today.

But everyone needs to calm down. No, no one wants a 60-40 election, and we feel a lot worse than 2 weeks ago, but Obama is still favored. Would you rather be on the other side? Needing a perfect debate to get into a situation where you have a 40% chance of winning? Of course not. If we keep fighting to election day, get out there and vote, get our people to the polls, Obama will do well enough in the last 2 debates to win this thing. The last debate is on foreign policy too, where Obama gets to talk about shooting Bin Laden in the face and how Romney said he wouldn't go in there. We are still in a strong position. Just cut out the defeatism and be persistent.

[BlueDemKev]

35. Point Taken

I'm with you. My sleeves are rolled up and I am ready to work for the Obama-Biden ticket the rest of the way...for the sake of my future and my children's future.

Let's do this together.