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geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:00 PM Oct 2012

PPP teaser about OH poll tomorrow

Ohio looks pretty darn close on the first night of our poll there. We'll do more calls tomorrow and have results in the evening


When we release the Ohio poll tomorrow there will be a breakdown of people who've already voted vs. have yet to vote


They can join Nate Silver under the bus tomorrow I guess.
103 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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PPP teaser about OH poll tomorrow (Original Post) geek tragedy Oct 2012 OP
I never liked PPP anyway Mario_Ordinario Oct 2012 #1
Is the Friday night effect in place again? If so, no wonder it is close. LonePirate Oct 2012 #2
So what should we do to reverse the trend? Firebirds01 Oct 2012 #3
Obama is the only one who can reverse this. geek tragedy Oct 2012 #6
well their last poll of Ohio was close too--Obama +4 WI_DEM Oct 2012 #4
Why do you think they'll end up mzmolly Oct 2012 #5
Parts of DU are rapidly approaching "skewed polls" mentality. nt geek tragedy Oct 2012 #17
But there is nothing in the teaser that mzmolly Oct 2012 #18
Trend lines. It used to be that a bad poll was Obama up 2 and a good one was geek tragedy Oct 2012 #38
I see. mzmolly Oct 2012 #61
It would. But no one went broke or lost an election because they underestimated geek tragedy Oct 2012 #87
Romney's bounce ended about 2 days ago. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #80
Yes, his polling has been getting better each and every day. geek tragedy Oct 2012 #88
I think some polls still reflect his bounce. mzmolly Oct 2012 #92
His momentum's slowed down. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #94
I question that very much. nt AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #78
For reference, their previous numbers Blaukraut Oct 2012 #7
if O had been up 5%, would ppp be impressive? Mario_Ordinario Oct 2012 #83
According to Nate, Mitt is beginning to gain in swing states budkin Oct 2012 #8
Poor debate performance. Simple as that. n/t Daniel537 Oct 2012 #10
Obama got up in front of 70 million people and couldn't tell them why he deserved geek tragedy Oct 2012 #13
Mitt stood up in front of those same people and lied ProSense Oct 2012 #16
No, it means that Romney wanted it more and is a more effective candidate. geek tragedy Oct 2012 #20
"is a more effective candidate" ProSense Oct 2012 #23
Obama's campaign had this thing won. Won. In the bag. geek tragedy Oct 2012 #31
Nonsense ProSense Oct 2012 #32
And now they show him behind. your point? nt geek tragedy Oct 2012 #39
The one that escaped you: ProSense Oct 2012 #41
Gallup also changed the % of cell phones in their poll this week. geek tragedy Oct 2012 #48
he most certainly has prepared and practiced. nt woolldog Oct 2012 #53
Well he's in Williamsburg this weekend to bone up. I think he know's better then anyone ChimpersMcSmirkers Oct 2012 #54
Why are you TROLLING AND TOOLING FOR ROBME ON THIS BOARD? GO AWAY ! RBInMaine Oct 2012 #73
I am beginning to wonder if this may indeed be true. nt AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #81
You're in a heep of trouble. UnrepentantLiberal Oct 2012 #84
People around here seem to forget that there are two more debates WI_DEM Oct 2012 #24
I think the town hall format will suit him well budkin Oct 2012 #47
If the viewers didn't _know_ he lied, then he came across as strong and decisive. Rather like GreenPartyVoter Oct 2012 #52
This is sadly really accurate jsmirman Oct 2012 #66
What was their reasoning woolldog Oct 2012 #67
I know this is hard to hear, but the guy at least jsmirman Oct 2012 #68
Maybe they'll have Romney leading. Let's consider: ProSense Oct 2012 #9
Exactly, I posted pretty much same thing above that PPP last poll was only +4 WI_DEM Oct 2012 #14
If the numbers from Ohio aren't good, woolldog Oct 2012 #11
You Are Enjoying This A Little Too Much DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #12
Enjoying? No. To tell the truth, I'm seething with anger geek tragedy Oct 2012 #15
I think you're confusing panic with "truth" n/t ProSense Oct 2012 #19
I guess I should chill out, because he's got this. nt geek tragedy Oct 2012 #22
Probably not a ProSense Oct 2012 #28
No. Just get out of politics. Shivering Jemmy Oct 2012 #46
lol! hrmjustin Oct 2012 #62
Yes, your hatred of the President is very clear. You seethe in every post. writes3000 Oct 2012 #21
Two weeks ago I was getting posts hidden for attacking critics of the President here. geek tragedy Oct 2012 #25
Looks like nothing has changed. ProSense Oct 2012 #30
i think you attacked me a few times woolldog Oct 2012 #44
I was probably a real dick about it too. geek tragedy Oct 2012 #45
Don't give up. woolldog Oct 2012 #49
We'll see if he's in on Tuesday. Pray that he is. nt geek tragedy Oct 2012 #51
We Can't Put The Toothpaste Back In The Tube DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #26
No we can't. Positive news is that Senate is looking great for us. The first woman President geek tragedy Oct 2012 #36
Carter Had A Much Worse Economy And The Ayatollah Was Clowning Us DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #40
Certainly the scale won't approach 1980--it'll be close. geek tragedy Oct 2012 #42
The Country Was In Much Worse Shape In 1980 DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #43
I agree with things you've said in this thread, but "he hasn't prepared"???? jsmirman Oct 2012 #65
I do feel you DonCoquixote Oct 2012 #55
So, your post is an attempt at demonstrating you were mzmolly Oct 2012 #27
And what do you suppose this is going to do? CthulhusEvilCousin Oct 2012 #33
have you ever had a bad day, when people expected a lot of you Voice for Peace Oct 2012 #70
I have never gone into a job interview without a basic plan to tout my past geek tragedy Oct 2012 #89
Is it possible you are assuming more than you actually know? Voice for Peace Oct 2012 #91
That stupid fucking debate needs to go away BeyondGeography Oct 2012 #29
Seriously. It's been tearing all of us up inside for a week budkin Oct 2012 #50
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Ohio - October 11, 2012 mzmolly Oct 2012 #34
Thank you for posting this. UrbScotty Oct 2012 #37
You are most mzmolly Oct 2012 #59
I still have hope in Ohio MFM008 Oct 2012 #35
Ohio needs to stay within a point or two but Obama has a lead with early voting there. Jennicut Oct 2012 #56
Romney hasn't led in a single Ohio poll so far Blaukraut Oct 2012 #58
we need IA or NV for sure woolldog Oct 2012 #64
I have a great feeling about both of those states, especially Iowa budkin Oct 2012 #72
Post removed Post removed Oct 2012 #57
betting against us? MFM008 Oct 2012 #60
betting against Obama! Please don't. hrmjustin Oct 2012 #63
It's almost as if people were anxiously *looking* for a reason to turn on us Azathoth Oct 2012 #69
Because the base validated the loss Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #71
I agree Azathoth Oct 2012 #74
Yep. LisaL Oct 2012 #75
You mean we don't default into that mode Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #79
Being gun-shy is part of it Azathoth Oct 2012 #93
better to help the opposition. genius. brindis_desala Oct 2012 #97
Unfortunately, progressives tend to run 180° in the opposite direction. Surya Gayatri Oct 2012 #86
Thank you for this frank and honest assessment, Maxi. Surya Gayatri Oct 2012 #85
Thank you so much, Maxi. . . daligirl519 Oct 2012 #90
ohio vadermike Oct 2012 #76
Please report to the Admins geek tragedy is now in violation of TOS rules DisabledAmerican Oct 2012 #77
Are they only doing 2 nights of polling? TroyD Oct 2012 #82
let go of the grudge. do you think you'll ever be able to?? MjolnirTime Oct 2012 #95
where is the poll? mgcgulfcoast Oct 2012 #96
They were teasing preliminary results of the first day FBaggins Oct 2012 #98
Obama 51-46 in Ohio (PPP) leads 76-24 with 19% early voters...How do you like them apples? Cali_Democrat Oct 2012 #99
I like 'em! Lex Oct 2012 #100
You don't mess with The Biden! Cali_Democrat Oct 2012 #101
Hope nobody's heartbroken by that poll! A-Schwarzenegger Oct 2012 #102
I guess you are crying in your milk tonight. LOL. morningfog Oct 2012 #103
 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
6. Obama is the only one who can reverse this.
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:06 PM
Oct 2012

He has to have the best 90 minutes of his life on Tuesday.

Otherwise, this is going to get away from him in a hurry.

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)
4. well their last poll of Ohio was close too--Obama +4
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:05 PM
Oct 2012

PPP (D) 9/27 - 9/30 897 LV 3.3 49 45 Obama +4

Taken at a time when Obama was flying high prior to the first debate. So we'll have to see what it is tomorrow. They still have polling to do tomorrow.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
38. Trend lines. It used to be that a bad poll was Obama up 2 and a good one was
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:39 PM
Oct 2012

Obama up 9.

Now, a good poll is anything showing him ahead and bad is sowing him behind.

Maybe the numbers will bounce back. But, Romney's bounce has cemented into a structural change in the race.

mzmolly

(50,992 posts)
61. I see.
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 12:50 AM
Oct 2012

It would be nice if undecided America thought about more than the theatrics of Romney's "performance" in recent debates - wouldn't it??

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
87. It would. But no one went broke or lost an election because they underestimated
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 11:40 AM
Oct 2012

the American consumer or voter.

 

AverageJoe90

(10,745 posts)
80. Romney's bounce ended about 2 days ago.
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 05:32 AM
Oct 2012

Come on, man, have you been asleep since October 10th, or what?

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
88. Yes, his polling has been getting better each and every day.
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 11:42 AM
Oct 2012

Yesterday was the best day of polling he's had. Thursday was the next best day. Etc.

That's movement, momentum. And what Obama offered up to slow it was effing Big Bird.

 

AverageJoe90

(10,745 posts)
94. His momentum's slowed down.
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 02:15 PM
Oct 2012

I just found about a massive ad-buy that Romney and co. did right after the elections ended.....that would explain the continued surge of the Romney campaign even after his debate bounce ended.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=139075

C'mon, man, wake the fuck up already.

Blaukraut

(5,693 posts)
7. For reference, their previous numbers
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:07 PM
Oct 2012

O 49
R 45

9/27 - 9/30

So they weren't all that impressive to begin with. Probably tightened to a two point margin, which would be in line with a few other Ohio polls. They also tweeted that they would do callbacks tomorrow, so their final result might not be as close as they hinted tonight.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
13. Obama got up in front of 70 million people and couldn't tell them why he deserved
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:14 PM
Oct 2012

to be re-elected. He didn't act like he thought he deserved it.

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
16. Mitt stood up in front of those same people and lied
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:19 PM
Oct 2012

which I guess means he should win and Obama should lose in your view.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
20. No, it means that Romney wanted it more and is a more effective candidate.
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:22 PM
Oct 2012

He'll be a terrible president and people will die and suffer due to him.

Wish Obama had thought about that kind of thing when he decided to cancel debate prep for a field trip to the Hoover Dam.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
31. Obama's campaign had this thing won. Won. In the bag.
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:26 PM
Oct 2012

The ad war had worked to perfection. The convention was a huge success.

Then he got up there, man vs man with Mitt Romney, and crumbled.

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
41. The one that escaped you:
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:45 PM
Oct 2012

He was tied in Sept among registered voters, he's now ahead.

Check again: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251138192

There was no likley voter poll for Gallup until this week.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
48. Gallup also changed the % of cell phones in their poll this week.
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 11:06 PM
Oct 2012

So there's that.

Bottom line: Obama will be better on Tuesday than he was in Denver. That's a low bar.

But, will he be good, let alone good enough? He hasn't prepared or practiced for this debate either, so . . .

ChimpersMcSmirkers

(3,328 posts)
54. Well he's in Williamsburg this weekend to bone up. I think he know's better then anyone
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 11:21 PM
Oct 2012

the situation he's in. He'll do well. Whether it's good enough we'll have to see. Greek is right about the ad war. The Obama campaign had it won and for whatever reason, Obama blew the debate. I think it was a combination of his staff telling him to play it safe and him being over-confident. He has a chance to bring it back and it'll be a challenge I think. The campaign seems to be coming down to this debate. Pukes are fired-up after thinking it was lost. Obama has to not only get the base energized but he has to win back some of "independents" that saw his debate and ran for the hills.

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)
24. People around here seem to forget that there are two more debates
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:24 PM
Oct 2012

and that yes, Obama fumbled the first one but it's pretty clear he is not going to do the same thing in the next two. Biden did a great job refuting the GOP in his debate IN HIS WAY--Obama will pick up on that in his debate and do it HIS WAY. People who think Obama is going to go into the next debate acting like Joe Biden are mistaken. He will refute Romney but he will do it in a way that is consistent with his personality--and also with the type of forum it is--town hall.

GreenPartyVoter

(72,377 posts)
52. If the viewers didn't _know_ he lied, then he came across as strong and decisive. Rather like
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 11:14 PM
Oct 2012

another blustery Repub they loved. Remember **?

jsmirman

(4,507 posts)
66. This is sadly really accurate
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 01:38 AM
Oct 2012

I talked to a couple from NE Florida tonight - Dems who initially said they weren't voting for the President because of the debate - this shit is painfully real.

I think I had them at legitimately undecided when we were done, because I can fucking sell.

He's damaged himself badly. I hope and think he can undo some of that damage on Tuesday. His political life - and the real lives of so many of us who are completely dependent on him coming through for us - depends on it.

If he loses, I lose the Court for possibly the rest of my lifetime, my environment is fucked, animals are even more fucked than they were under Obama, the food supply becomes beyond perilous to all consumers including yours truly, women are fucked, and the world may possibly end, because Romney should in no way shape or form get the chance to start WWIII. Which he damn well might.

That better fucking mean something to our guy.

I will fight to the end if he will. I have every expectation he will show that willingness.

 

woolldog

(8,791 posts)
67. What was their reasoning
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 01:48 AM
Oct 2012

in not voting for him based on 1 debate? We're not electing a debater in chief after all.

Good job, btw.

jsmirman

(4,507 posts)
68. I know this is hard to hear, but the guy at least
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 01:55 AM
Oct 2012

felt that the economy he sees all around him (he's in construction) isn't good and Obama gave him no reason to think he was the man to improve on that, and no indication that he had a fucking pulse to take on the challenge.

That's terrible.

Now there are counterpoints - please see my post on the entire conversation here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021528095#post18

There are many things I thought he should be considering, and he was open-minded enough (read, also, not that firmly decided) to listen.

Some might think he was just being polite, but I don't think so. I think I put - at minimum - the seeds of doubt into him, and he's at least thinking that Romney might be a very, very bad choice.

And I think I made arguments that resonated with his wife, and so maybe her vote got pushed further to our side, and maybe her opinion will work further on him.

I sold hard, but very polite and very much in the vein of I know exactly where you're coming from. Which, at least in my experience, is the right way to sell on the campaign trail.

My hope and feeling is that I convinced him to watch the 2nd debate.

Now Obama better fucking deliver.

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)
14. Exactly, I posted pretty much same thing above that PPP last poll was only +4
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:18 PM
Oct 2012

for Obama when everything was peaches and cream prior to the first debate. My guess is that it will be Obama ahead 1-2 points which isn't really that much of a shift. Also early voting numbers will be included, which if PPP is like Survey USA (which showed Obama ahead by 1-point) and NBC which had Obama up by 6--it should show a strong early vote for Obama.

Look it's increasingly looking like the media is going to get the close election they wanted. I think similar to 2004 when the incumbent won by 2-points. So yes, the battleground states are going to be close if that is the case. I just hate the idea of the usual suspects around here freaking out and bringing everybody else down in the process.

If Obama has a good Tuesday night you could see all polls change quickly as well.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
12. You Are Enjoying This A Little Too Much
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:13 PM
Oct 2012

It must be nice to be inured from the havoc a Romney presidency would bring.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
15. Enjoying? No. To tell the truth, I'm seething with anger
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:19 PM
Oct 2012

at the President for failing to take that debate as seriously as he needed to. He blew off debate prep for stuff like visiting the Hoover Dam. It was a betrayal of everyone who had put their trust in him. He sent out countless emails asking people "are you in?"

When it came time to face Mitt Romney, Barack Obama was not in when it counted.

I flew myself to Iowa in the pit of winter in 2007 to help him win the nomination, and goddamn it I regret that and will the rest of my life.

Shivering Jemmy

(900 posts)
46. No. Just get out of politics.
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 11:03 PM
Oct 2012

It's too much for you and it seems you can't handle the stress. Find another hobby.

writes3000

(4,734 posts)
21. Yes, your hatred of the President is very clear. You seethe in every post.
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:22 PM
Oct 2012

You take perverse pleasure in it. You go to sleep i assume. And then you start spewing your hatred all over again.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
25. Two weeks ago I was getting posts hidden for attacking critics of the President here.
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:24 PM
Oct 2012

Then the President decided it was more important to visit the Hoover Dam than to prepare for his debate.

 

woolldog

(8,791 posts)
49. Don't give up.
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 11:07 PM
Oct 2012

I'm angry at Obama too. In fact, I haven't been happy with the way he's governed since the ACA. But he's what we've got, and the alternative is too dangerous to just give up. Hang in there

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
36. No we can't. Positive news is that Senate is looking great for us. The first woman President
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:33 PM
Oct 2012

will get elected to the Senate in November--I'm convinced it'll be Gillibrand or Warren.

I was around in 1980, and that debate felt all too familiar. That feeling a person gets when they know who's going to win and who's going to lose. Had that feeling after the RNC in 2004. After the DC-area primaries in 2008 and then when McCain suspended his campaign in the fall.

Got that feeling at that debate. I've been hoping for the data to turn around, but ten days later quite the opposite.

And this was totally preventable. Some tightening yes, but this?

Sigh.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
40. Carter Had A Much Worse Economy And The Ayatollah Was Clowning Us
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:43 PM
Oct 2012

Plus Obama gets two more shots at the apple.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
42. Certainly the scale won't approach 1980--it'll be close.
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:52 PM
Oct 2012

But Obama just doesn't seem to have it unless he's on the stump preaching to the choir. He wasn't good at the Univision forum. DNC speech was workmanlike at best.

And he hasn't prepared for this debate.

It just seems like he gets the yips when trying to persuade people to vote for him.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
43. The Country Was In Much Worse Shape In 1980
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:58 PM
Oct 2012

Gas lines, incipient inflation, foreign policy debacles.


Look, I am disappointed. President Obama wasn't my first choice but I say this from the bottom of my heart; the enemies he has made has made me love him.

Apres Barack Obama le deluge.

jsmirman

(4,507 posts)
65. I agree with things you've said in this thread, but "he hasn't prepared"????
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 01:32 AM
Oct 2012

Totally unfair and wrong.

The failures of the first debate fall under the category of criminal stupidity, imo, and I think people like us are extra furious, because we've put real skin in the game.

But Obama and his advisers are not clueless. There is NO WAY that he will not be prepared for this debate. They have the message, loud and clear from all sides - donors, other politicians, the polls, etc.

Like I told everyone, I guarantee that multiple large donors tore Obama up something fierce over the phone - and their calls get answered.

I can't guarantee how he'll do, although I hope and think it will be much better.

I don't see any way that he isn't as prepared as he's ever been on Tuesday. He knows he's in a fight for his life.

That he put himself there is tough to take, but it is what it is now, and don't see any way that they wave the white flag here.

He'll be ready.

DonCoquixote

(13,616 posts)
55. I do feel you
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 11:46 PM
Oct 2012

I get a creepy feeling that for Hillary to stop challenging for 2008, some devil's deal was made where Obama took in Geitner, Rahm, and Hill herself, who frankly, made damned sure that forgien and domestic policy were not changed. Obama and Hillary are wonks, technocrats, with them both lacking and needing Bill Clinton's talent for reducing ideas to common terms. That does nto make them bad polticians, but in America, we want someone to appeal to our glands as well as our brains.

That being said, I doubt an extra hour of prep would have made a difference. Mitt was given the credibility going in, because the news wanted a horserace. Now, I did not slam your point, so hear me out here.

Do you think that the whole coordinated pillorying by MSNBC was an accident? I am not saying Karl Rove planned anything, but the fact is that whatever flaw Obama had, the Eds and Tweetys cranked up to eleven, why, because, they are paid to appeal to the glands, the fears, the rages. They are not just paid to do that, but they are paid to ensure THAT is the level of American political thought. In other words, MSNBC is a lesser degree of stupid, but it is still about keeping thought managed, rather than loosened.

That being said, Obama and Joe could have worked on things different, mostly by ABANDONING THE PRETENSE of debate. America wants wrong and strong, and Obama needs to project that.

I respect realism, however, there is one thing many of the DOOOm posters do. They keep acting like Obama could have killed Mitt that night. The fact that Mitt's performance was at best C+ disproves that. There is a fact that needs to be repeated like a mantra:

The media wants a horserace...aum...the media wants a horserace....aum

and why, because Citizens united made sure they will get RICH.

Let's not forget, if this thign became a 269 ton 269 mess, with Florida and Ohio stealing ballots, the media will sing Hallelujah. They have what James madison would call a "vested interest in disorder."

The only recourse we have is what we always had, GOTV, and talking to people. However, that is really what we should have counted on all along. Polls are illusions at best, bad or good, as, for all their math, they have so many variables that it becomes impossible to tell the cooked results from the simply useless. As I have said before,the silver lining her is that now, we are not lulled into complaceny by the polls. I feared this, as I remember how in 2000 the polls said that Florida should have been a cakewalk for Gore, only to see the GOP break yet another low. This panic can be used to make sure we do not play hare to the GOP turtle.

Now, we can avoid making the mistake Obama made, sitting on the ball and running out the clock. We need to go all out smash mouth.

mzmolly

(50,992 posts)
27. So, your post is an attempt at demonstrating you were
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:24 PM
Oct 2012

right?

Races generally tighten. That's not unusual.

CthulhusEvilCousin

(209 posts)
33. And what do you suppose this is going to do?
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:30 PM
Oct 2012

Repeating a talking point everyone, including the President, has already acknowledged? If they were out there saying they did awesome, I'd agree with you. But you're beating a dead horse.

 

Voice for Peace

(13,141 posts)
70. have you ever had a bad day, when people expected a lot of you
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 02:09 AM
Oct 2012

and you just couldn't pull it off, on that day,
not well enough to fulfill your job or your promises?
And people were disappointed and angry with you?

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
89. I have never gone into a job interview without a basic plan to tout my past
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 11:47 AM
Oct 2012

achievements and why I would be the right person to hire for the job.

If Obama had put that little thought and prepared so little for a deposition or witness at a trial, he'd be guilty of malpractice.

He wasn't in. He didn't act like he believed he deserves a second term.

 

Voice for Peace

(13,141 posts)
91. Is it possible you are assuming more than you actually know?
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 01:23 PM
Oct 2012

For example, you really don't know his preparedness,
nor what else he had on his plate that day.

I don't know if there is someone else who could have
done better, but it wasn't enough to rattle my confidence
in him, I'm sorry you are feeling so gloomy -- because
even if your worst opinions of him are true, would you
choose someone else? Or just let it go to default,
and not vote at all?

budkin

(6,703 posts)
50. Seriously. It's been tearing all of us up inside for a week
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 11:10 PM
Oct 2012

I believe that Obama can fight back. I still can't believe a debate can do that much damage though. Just goes to show you how awful he was.

mzmolly

(50,992 posts)
34. NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Ohio - October 11, 2012
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:31 PM
Oct 2012

... Presidential Election

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/news/Marist%20OH%2010-12.pdf

Obama up six in Ohio as of 10/11/2012. Granted, this is one poll, but It's been a steady (win) for Obama.

UrbScotty

(23,980 posts)
37. Thank you for posting this.
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 10:35 PM
Oct 2012

It will be interesting to see how things move in Ohio, but for now, if anyone is the favorite there, it is undoubtedly Obama.

mzmolly

(50,992 posts)
59. You are most
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 12:46 AM
Oct 2012

welcome.

I hope that PPP will have good news in their poll results - tomorrow as well.

Jennicut

(25,415 posts)
56. Ohio needs to stay within a point or two but Obama has a lead with early voting there.
Fri Oct 12, 2012, 11:54 PM
Oct 2012

It will make a difference. Dems also have an advantage with early voting in Iowa. We need Iowa, Ohio and of course to hold onto Wisconsin and New Hampshire. We do not need FL, VA, CO, NV, etc. Nevada looks like it might stay on our side. I would hate for it to be this close but I would not panic if we kept NV, OH, IA and NH. VA will be very, very close. FL may be Romney territory due to the older age of the people there (older people vote more for Repubs). CO has more registered Repubs, very hard to tell in that state.

Blaukraut

(5,693 posts)
58. Romney hasn't led in a single Ohio poll so far
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 12:03 AM
Oct 2012

So even if he ends up leading in the upcoming PPP poll, it won't be by much. When all Ohio polls in the coming weeks will have him ahead and at the 50% mark, I'll concede he may win there, but not until then. Same goes for the other firewall state polls. (WI, IA, NV)

Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Azathoth

(4,608 posts)
69. It's almost as if people were anxiously *looking* for a reason to turn on us
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 01:59 AM
Oct 2012

I'm as pissed as the next guy at Obama's inexcusable non-performance last week, but this is starting to get out of control. If Ohio decides it's willing to vote for a corporate parasite who eagerly demanded Detroit go bankrupt over the guy who actually saved the fucking backbone of the American car industry, then we might as well throw in the towel.

I just can't fathom how 90 fucking minutes of poor debating caused a billion-dollar campaign to collapse and convinced millions of people to switch their vote overnight to a guy who is on tape expressing outright contempt and hatred for them. I'm getting the distinct feeling that something else is at work here, like there was a submerged pocket of resentment toward Obama that was suddenly ruptured, almost as if a lot of people out there wanted to vote against him, but needed some legitimate justification for doing so.

Maximumnegro

(1,134 posts)
71. Because the base validated the loss
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 02:13 AM
Oct 2012

We have to take responsibility here too. Look at Biden - they were ready to call that debate a draw and tie but we were pumped and got our red meat and slowly pundits started conceding Biden won, sorta. The two polls with Biden winning are not huge margins either. The difference is we fought the narrative right away and maintained enthusiasm and the media corrected itself a notch. Last week the base shit itself completely and sided with the pundits. That sealed the narrative, validated Romney (who was going to win the debate based on precedence anyway), and demoralized the base. The O campaign did not see out part coming. They figured Obama would lose anyway and hopefully could break even at best. But the base fed the narrative into a spiral. We can't pretend that we are not part of the political media feedback when it's convenient. Pundits and news sites track DU and Dkos, etc. pull stories and make statements based on what they read here. We freaked and they knew it and they put a big fat Base Approved stamp on the crushing defeat narrative. Sorry but Obama as scapegoat doesn't cut it. We reeked of fear and became chum in the water.

Now we have hold ranks and push like hell with enthusiasm and gotv. And for god's sake whether Obama gives you a stiffy or not next week STFU and yeah, clap louder. People can make 'fair and balanced' critique when he's sworn in.

Azathoth

(4,608 posts)
74. I agree
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 02:41 AM
Oct 2012

The response from our side validated the loss and made it an uncontested fact rather than a hotly disputed political assertion. If we had fallen into lockstep and pushed back, regardless of what we actually belived, then we might have attenuated some of the damage. But that's the problem with living in the reality-based community. The Right is used to living in a closed information environment in which reality is shaped through sheer force of will, and when threatened they instinctively fall into lockstep behind their authority figure. We're not wired that way, we don't default into that mode when caught off guard.

LisaL

(44,973 posts)
75. Yep.
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 04:14 AM
Oct 2012

It's not like there is an objective way to determine who actually won the debate.
Screaming how Obama supposedly lost is not going to do any good.

Maximumnegro

(1,134 posts)
79. You mean we don't default into that mode
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 05:31 AM
Oct 2012

when we have been in the rare position of being on offense for so long. Being caught 'off-guard' is something Dems (at least the leadership) are very good at. The base doesn't know how to handle confidence and winning and for a split second we thought the truth would out and that the media would give a fair shake. Nothing to do with 'reality-based'. That's just a code word for fear-based thinking, negative motivation. Whenever I hear Dems use 'reality' it's always in conjunction with a negative projection. If it's positive, it's don't be complacent, etc. Constantly negative motivation and projection borne of a party that is used to losing. Having your candidate's back is not lockstep, even your analogy is negative as though wed be fascists for backing the pres. Dems need to change their whole way of thinking. For a brief moment this summer there was a glimpse of a possible future for the party - I have never been prouder than when Reid and all the Dems came out against Romney in unison again and again and didn't let up.

Azathoth

(4,608 posts)
93. Being gun-shy is part of it
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 01:44 PM
Oct 2012

Democrats have watched defeat get snatched from the jaws of victory many, many times, and deep down they are always looking for it to happen again. But the criticism of Obama was mostly fair; he did fuck up, badly. He walked into a critical debate in front of 70 million people and largely refused to stand up for himself and his supporters. Pointing that out isn't "fear-based thinking" -- it's acknowledging objective reality. Dealing with an unexpected external threat like bad jobs numbers, an October surprise, etc. is one thing. In those situations, you rally behind the big cheese and stand united. But it's something else to march onto the battlefield only to watch your general stride out in front of his forces and preemptively surrender to the other guy. That's a demoralizing gut punch, and claiming it as a victory is not an honest or factually-grounded reaction, even if doing so might be politically advantageous. Having someone's back even when they don't have yours is the definition of lockstep.

 

Surya Gayatri

(15,445 posts)
86. Unfortunately, progressives tend to run 180° in the opposite direction.
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 08:57 AM
Oct 2012

Last edited Sat Oct 13, 2012, 10:08 AM - Edit history (1)

"instinctively fall(ing) into lockstep behind (an) authority figure" is ideologically anathema to progressives.

Just like the proverbial herd of cats. Democratic strategists and leaders must sometimes feel like these cat herders:

 

Surya Gayatri

(15,445 posts)
85. Thank you for this frank and honest assessment, Maxi.
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 08:40 AM
Oct 2012
"Last week the base shit itself completely and sided with the pundits. That sealed the narrative, validated Romney (who was going to win the debate based on precedence anyway), and demoralized the base."

There you have it--from the pundits at MSNBC to the posters on progressive forums, the narrative was set and reinforced. Self-fulfulling failure.

daligirl519

(285 posts)
90. Thank you so much, Maxi. . .
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 01:12 PM
Oct 2012

Yours is the most intelligent and articulate explanation I have read regarding this madness. I think it should have its own thread so that others might read it.

vadermike

(1,415 posts)
76. ohio
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 04:46 AM
Oct 2012

Then we cannot panic about this poll tommorow.. hopefully its close... o +1 or 2 i'll take at this point.. but Obama MUST deliver on Tues and we Dems and dem-leaning pundits must get the Pres back and dfend him to the last, .. hopefully he does well enough or better and Romney can STFU and we can go on to beat him in a few weeks.. if not .. then I don't know.. i am truly scared for my country right now!

 

DisabledAmerican

(452 posts)
77. Please report to the Admins geek tragedy is now in violation of TOS rules
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 05:06 AM
Oct 2012

You have a poster who is passing on conspiracy theories of Obama not preparing for Debates. Some how she thinks he skipped Debate Prep. This is a violation of TOS rules and guidelines here at this website. The Poster is willing to pass these conspiracy theories on. Post here.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251138625#post15

and here

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251138625#post48

Violate the guidelines of this website. PLEASE PASS THESE ONTO A ADMIN. Conspiracy Theories worthy of Free Republic should not be allowed on this website. The post of her comments go beyond concern about the debate. Report this Thread Admittedly.

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
82. Are they only doing 2 nights of polling?
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 06:49 AM
Oct 2012

It sounds like they are just polling tonight and tomorrow night.

Perhaps a 3rd night would be in order.

FBaggins

(26,737 posts)
98. They were teasing preliminary results of the first day
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 03:03 PM
Oct 2012

out of a two-day sample.

I think they expect to release tonight.

On edit - oh... and they're doing battleground state polling all week.

 

Cali_Democrat

(30,439 posts)
101. You don't mess with The Biden!
Sat Oct 13, 2012, 08:49 PM
Oct 2012


Ohio voters think Biden won the debate Thursday night 46-37, including 44-32 with independents


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