Ground game ground game ground game.
Remember, this was the "hidden" element for Bush in 2004 - after the fact everyone was amazed at the Bush ground operations. It is the hidden element here as well. Not only does the incumbent have a significant advantage in ground game, but the Obama people have spent more on this than anything else. Look at the disparity of local offices in Ohio. Romney's shifting personnel from PA to OH to deal with early vvoting? After early voting has started? What a joke. Obama's had people beating the pavements in Ohio for 16 months.
To the Obama people who are actually involved in the process of getting Obama elected (not you, poll junkies - y'all are just playing fantasy baseball - I'm referring to serious people who give a shit), do your work. Work your precinct, your blocks, your program. Keep it up. It will pay off, and the media will be speaking in stunned amazement about YOU 30 days from now, and the poll junkies with their little parlor games will be an amusing joke.