Republican Insiders begin to prepare for post MI primary meltdown

[grantcart]

Last edited Sat Feb 18, 2012, 10:40 PM - Edit history (1)

edited to add PPP latest tweet "Santorum leading on the first night of our new Michigan poll, but much closer than we found there a week ago."

Romney's inevitable meltdown is coming earlier than predicted. Even if he wins Michigan it will be at such a cost in treasure and reputation that it will become the new political definition of Pyrrhic Victories.

The establishment is begining to forsee a process that would go to Santorum or Gingrich.

Fear is palpable in the country club class. Multiple senior sources are begining to leak alternative plans if Romney fails in Michigan;

http://www.politico.com/playbook/

THE CONVERSATION: A tippy-top Republican, unprompted, yesterday sketched the germ of a plan for a new candidate if Rick Santorum upsets Mitt Romney in the Michigan primary on Feb. 28. Our friend brought visual aids: chicken-scratched versions of prosaic documents that are circulating among GOP insiders like nuclear-code sheets: In case of mayhem, break glass!

Most reporters still think Romney “will find a way to win Michigan.” Nevertheless, some of the nation’s most powerful Republicans are poring over filing deadlines and pondering worst-case scenarios.

Our friend handed us a printout of FEC deadlines for ballot access, with five of them circled and starred: California (March 23), Montana (March 12), New Jersey (April 2), New Mexico (March 16) and South Dakota (March 27). The point: Even after Feb. 28, it might be possible to assemble a Hail Mary candidacy that could garner enough delegates to force a CONTESTED convention (a different nuance than BROKERED, which implies that someone is in charge).

At the same time that they were meeting they literarrly bumped into this reporter who had his own official leak from another Republican Senator

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/02/top-gop-senator-says-if-romney-loses-michigan-we-need-a-new-candidate/


A prominent Republican senator just told me that if Romney can’t win in Michigan, the Republican Party needs to go back to the drawing board and convince somebody new to get into the race.

“If Romney cannot win Michigan, we need a new candidate,” said the senator, who has not endorsed anyone and requested anonymity.

The senator believes Romney will ultimately win in Michigan but says he will publicly call for the party to find a new candidate if he does not.

“We’d get killed,” the senator said if Romney manages to win the nomination after he failed to win the state in which he grew up.

“He’d be too damaged,” he said. “If he can’t even win in Michigan, where his family is from, where he grew up.”

[monmouth]

1. I wonder how Santorum will take this..Kind of a slap in the face if he should win MI..n/t

[southernyankeebelle]

2. It would be fun for a brokered convention. Hilarious if they pick quitter Palin. I know they

wouldn't but it sure would be fun.

[oldhippydude]

3. it will be truth...

God told Santorum to run.. guess Santorum has no chioce but run do its consistancy

[grantcart]

4. More bad news from PPP for Romney

Behind Santorum in Washington

Santorum still up about 10 points on Romney in Washington state through 2 days of our polling there

Romney doing weaker in AZ than expected

The first night of our polling in Arizona was pretty much a tie between Romney and Santorum

Romney still behind in MI

Santorum leading on the first night of our new Michigan poll, but much closer than we found there a week ago

[joshcryer]

5. grantcart, just wanted to thank for your continued analysis.

It's been fun watching you (not in a stalk-y sort of way, just, the stuff you post).

PS epic stuff ahead.

[bleever]

6. I do wonder who qualifies as a "tippy-top" Repub in this post-apocolyptic hellscape they've made

for themselves.

Someone gnawing animal bones on the highest place in a cave, surrounded by crazed followers banging sticks and rocks together in the light of a bonfire?

[Drunken Irishman]

7. The thing is, the candidate pool will be extremely shallow...

I hear Jeb's name tossed around and that ain't happening. Jeb is smart and he knows a situation is forming that would be near-toxic for any Republican. If he steps in, wins the nomination and then loses to Obama in November, any hope he had of being president just went out the window.

If Jeb is serious about running, he's eyeing '16 and won't risk blowing it against an increasingly popular president.

So, who do they have? Mitch Daniels? Meh. Sarah Palin?

Maybe Chris Christie - but even that seems unlikely.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. I also still think Romney will pull Michigan out...

Barely. But he'll win it.

[davidpdx]

9. It's times like these that I want to organize our own version of operation havoc

and change affiliation for the primary. If this is going to be a long bloody road, why not make it as miserable as possible for them. I'm not sure if it would make any difference though.

I still think Romney would be the better (worst) opponent and am hoping he pulls out of the tailspin his campaign is in.

[Denninmi]

10. Well, I definitely want to engage in malicious voting on Feb. 28.

I'm just not sure which route is best -- Romney because he's the idiot we know best, or Santorum to throw the whole thing into chaos?

??????

[davidpdx]

15. Good picture

I haven't watch South Park in awhile. I guess I'll have to go catch up on episodes.

I'm not sure what I would do either. At least my primary is not until May, so I have quite a long time before I'd have to make a decision for sure. I could always change my party affiliation and vote for neither and write in Barack Obama. Wouldn't that be funny.

[DCBob]

11. PPP's tweet about the latest poll being much closer than a week ago could be significant.

I think Santorum may be taking a hit for the contraception controversy. Although Mittens keeps making dumb comments that could offset any gains he might have gotten. It will be interesting to see the next round of polls from Michigan.

[grantcart]

13. It will get closer, and the fighting will be getting nastier, in other words its a

win, win, win for us.

[DFW]

12. Don't forget--the Republican candidate gets 42% of the vote even if they nominate Joe The Plumber

A huge number of voters will automatically vote Republican, no matter if their nominee is Romney or Porky Pig.
It will make NO DIFFERENCE.


They will vote how Fox Noise and National Hate Radio tell them to vote. Period. And they are NOT the ones who
are being targeted by voter disenfranchisement moves by Republicans or fraudulent programming by electronic
voting machines built, programmed, and verified exclusively by Republicans.

Ask them why they would prefer Porky Pig over Barack Obama, and they'll spew out some packaged nonsense
about taxes, God, Islam, "the birth certificate," Hispanic immigrants, WHATEVER.

This is what Obama (and America) is up against. Many fights that deserve to be won are still lost. This is one we
dare not get complacent about. Just because common sense says Obama should win this in a cakewalk does not
mean common sense will play a huge role here. It sure as hell won't play a role for those planning to vote for the
Republican ticket, and there will be tens of millions of them.

[NYC Liberal]

14. Repubs are not pragmatic and will not unite to rally around whichever candidate ends up winning.

Some of the right-wing base may not have liked McCain, but there was no long drawn-out fight with several other semi-viable candidates in the running. They were not split into factions as deeply as they are this year. And even if they really did hate McCain as much as they do Romney, there's also the potential attitude of, "We held our noses once; we're not going to do it two elections in a row."

So whoever wins, a good portion of Repub voters will stay home.