How Bernie Sanders Could Win Super Tuesday... Or Lose Really Badly

[Jefferson23]

***Take to the phones, do all you can Bernie peeps!

2/29/2016


Hillary Clinton goes into Super Tuesday with a 26-pledged delegate lead (91-65) over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. She also has a 433-superdelegate lead (453-20).

In crunching some numbers, an NPR analysis finds one very rosy scenario for Sanders in which he comes out with the majority of pledged delegates on Super Tuesday. This is considered unlikely, but it's his best possible day.

The analysis also shows close to Clinton's best day, including winning Colorado, Massachusetts and Oklahoma — all places Sanders is targeting. It gives Sanders big wins in Vermont and Minnesota.

That second scenario would give Clinton a 151-delegate win. So our range for Tuesday in pledged delegates appears to be something like Sanders plus-1 to Clinton plus-151.

Here are scenarios:

*snip The truth, as usual, is probably somewhere in between.

Either way, neither will have enough delegates out of Super Tuesday to mathematically be the nominee (2,383) — though two very different story lines would emerge.

http://www.npr.org/2016/02/29/468505162/how-bernie-sanders-could-win-super-tuesday-or-lose-really-badly

Call Voters For Bernie
https://go.berniesanders.com/page/content/phonebank

[Adrahil]

1. I heard that reporter talking about this analysis.....

I think it's pretty spot on. I'll be interested in seeing the results as compared to Nate Silver's targets, which take into account the delegate counts for the states and how the demographics map to each candidate.

[Jefferson23]

3. Yes, it will be a strong indicator either way on how they go forward...obstacles and all. n/t

[DCBob]

2. I predict the option "lose really badly".

The momentum is all Hillary now.