How many nonwhites would vote for Trump against Hillary in November?

[Nye Bevan]

For that matter, how many white women would choose Donald "blood coming out of her wherever" Trump over Hillary in November?

People claiming that Hillary can't beat Trump just leave me scratching my head. If only white males could vote this would be a legitimate concern, but fortunately that hasn't been the case for quite a while now.

[Buzz Clik]

1. Most non-affluent Republicans vote against their best interest.

Trump will draw people like that from both parties.

[onenote]

26. If that is the case, then wouldn't they also vote against their own interest

if Bernie was the nominee?

I support Bernie and think he could win the General. I also think Clinton can win the General.

Indeed, the only way that I could see Clinton or Bernie losing is that if a lot of their respective supporters decide to vote against their own interests by not doing everything possible to prevent the election of whichever republican maniac gets their party's nomination.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

2. What if the people who feel disenfranchised and taken for granted

because their only options are a bloviating, vulgar reality-show host and a corporatist 1%-er just stay home?

[Nye Bevan]

4. I think we kind of saw yesterday

that the "corporatist 1%-er" label has not exactly stuck. To say the least.

[PonyUp]

24. But low turnout showed people stayed home. nt

[onenote]

33. GOP turnout in the general will drop

because there will be many Cruz and Rubio supporters who won't back Trump after the way he has attacked their candidate. And if Trump doesn't get the nomination, a lot of his supporters will find something else to on election day.

[PonyUp]

77. Repugs tend to fall in line when the time comes. n/t

[onenote]

78. Already evidence of an implosion if Trump gets the nomination

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/divisions-within-gop-over-trumps-candidacy-are-growing/2016/02/28/97b16010-de3a-11e5-8d98-4b3d9215ade1_story.html

http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-35689439

http://www.nj.com/opinion/index.ssf/2016/02/whitman_scorches_christie_over_trump_prefers_hilla.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/clinton-and-trumps-black-and-white-politics/2016/02/26/b626084e-dcd6-11e5-925f-1d10062cc82d_story.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-albatross-of-a-trump-endorsement/2016/02/28/0521c478-de54-11e5-846c-10191d1fc4ec_story.html


Statements by repub officials and repub leaning columnists will go a long way in giving cover to suburban repubs whose votes are needed by the repubs in purple states.

[cascadiance]

34. Here's a blog post that would seem to indicate he found someone of color drawn to Trump...

https://normsaysno.wordpress.com/2016/02/25/more-disturbing-news-about-sec-clinton/

...
In my return from DC a couple of weeks ago, I took a cab to the airport. The driver, an immigrant from Uganda, was quite talkative, and is passionate about politics. He even “tested” me on my knowledge, with questions like “Which president signed into law the repeal of Glass-Stegall?”, and was delighted when I gave him the correct answers.

He’s a Bernie supporter, and he went on at length about what he views as the corruption of Hillary Clinton. Typical rant: “How does she expect us to believe that her taking $600,000 for a speech on Wall Street wouldn’t affect what she would do as president? Does she really take us for fools?”

Of course, as a black man, he had equal contempt for black “leaders” who are supporting Clinton. I must say I can’t blame him. What has Clinton done proactively that is specifically aimed at improving the lot of African-Americans? Nothing, as far as I know. I am not aware of anything Bernie Sanders has done in the Senate specifically on the black issue either, but he has a lifetime of working to support the poor and the working class, and that should qualify. And, in case it matters, as a college student, Sanders was active in the civil rights movement — whereas Hillary, at that age, was a Republican. If African-Americans want to judge a candidate purely on race — which I think is too narrow, but “just if” — then the exhortations of the black leaders to vote for Hillary makes no sense, and one must wonder about their judgment processes.

What will surprise, even revulse, those of you readers who are in the press or the “establishment” political world — but will make perfect sense to those of you outside of those realms — is that the above-mentioned cabbie also likes Donald Trump. It’s a great example of the validity of the comments of Senator Jeff Sessions to Breitbart, among which was “…It looks like working people who may have been voting for Democrats voted for Trump in huge numbers.”
...

So, there would appear to be some that don't follow along with your expectations. I completely do NOT support any consideration of voting for Trump, just to be clear on that! But it is there out in the wild where some don't expect it to be.

[TDale313]

3. How many working class whites will swarm to Trump?

How many Indepenents will never vote for her? How many semi-sane Republicans will cross over to vote for her? (I know some would for Sanders)

Here's the truth- Trump's a wild card. Throw out your traditional maps and demos if he gets the nod. We have no idea how it would play out. I would hope there are still enough sane Americans that either Dem candidate would win. But turnout sadly says their side's energized and we're not. I suspect Bernie's our better shot. Ymmv.

[Nye Bevan]

6. I agree with you on working-class whites.

However, he needs a lot more than working-class whites to win the presidency.

[TDale313]

14. There are women who will vote for him.

As a woman I don't get it but there ya are. Here's the one prediction I will make: It won't be close. He'll self destruct and lose in a landslide or we're more lost that I think and people will buy his schtick. People are angry and frustrated and he's offering a big middle finger to the whole system.

I didn't think my "liberal" California would elect the Governator either, but we did. Don't underestimate the appeal of celebrity, authoritarianism, and antiestablishment attitudes.

[nadinbrzezinski]

69. this

I didn't think my "liberal" California would elect the Governator either, but we did. Don't underestimate the appeal of celebrity, authoritarianism, and antiestablishment attitudes.

[Lizzie Poppet]

11. Independent moderates are likely to overwhelmingly reject Hillary.

This is the "year of the outsider" in many ways. Among independent moderates (particularly in swing states, which actually matter), only another outsider candidate is going to match or beat Trump's numbers in November. That ain't Hillary...

[TDale313]

16. I agree. n/t

[Dem2]

17. I was pleased that only 1 of 10 at my work would even consider voting for Trump

Most puke in their mouth a little, a couple have said they'd leave the country if Trump wins.

All working-class whites (Republicans in the case of the people at work) aren't necessarily morons.

[TDale313]

19. That's really good to hear. n/t

[Dem2]

22. I suspect a few will hold their nose and vote R

The rest will likely stay home or may even give Hillary the nod just to defeat Trump. We'll see if it ends up being Hillary v. Trump.

[EL34x4]

41. If Trump gets the nomination...

...Establishment Republicans will run a third party candidate, probably Romney, to throw the election to Hillary. Romney won't win. He's not expected to. He only needs to deny Trump certain key battleground states.

Trump is too much of a risk to the establishment. He doesn't play by the rules. He didn't take K Street money. He doesn't owe any favors. Hillary is a Washington insider. She knows the game. She'll play ball and buy the Republicans four more years to figure out how in the hell Trump happened and put the necessary checks in place to ensure someone like him never happens again.

[jeff47]

49. No, they won't.

Establishment Republicans would like to continue to hold their seats. Obvious sabotage of Trump means they lose their next primary.

[EL34x4]

56. It won't be obvious and elected officials can keep their hands clean.

It'll be orchestrated by the backroom power players. Those unelected Republicans who fund elections.

I know it sounds crazy but don't underestimate the amount of pants-shitting that is going on right now within the GOP hierarchy.

[jeff47]

58. If it's not obvious, they can't get enough votes for that third-party to matter.

I know it sounds crazy but don't underestimate the amount of pants-shitting that is going on right now within the GOP hierarchy.

I'm fully aware of the pants-shitting. The problem with your plan is it turns their tenuous control of the party into no control of the party.

[MoonRiver]

5. None and none - nuff said

[sufrommich]

7. None. You would think reading around here that only

white people votes matter.

[Nye Bevan]

10. I'm pretty sure that the demographics of DU resemble NH more than SC,

which would explain your observation.

[Lizzie Poppet]

13. In terms of political "spectrum" as well as demographics.

Thus the large (probably majority, but only by a hair) presence for the progressive option...

[MellowDem]

36. Hell, some minorities have already voted for Trump...

in the primary. So where does none come from? I guess their votes don't matter because they won't be voting Clinton? I seem to remember Clinton praising the importance of the white vote when she was winning it in 2008, and losing overall.

[Lizzie Poppet]

8. A significant percentage of those minority voters who may hand the primary to Hillary...

...live in states that are never going to go blue in November. Whether they're willing to vote for Trump or not is literally irrelevant, thanks to the Electoral College.

[BillZBubb]

9. Electoral votes are what counts.

Trump will win all of the red states--even though they have large minority populations who would almost unanimously vote against him. In those state, the hatred of Hillary is much stronger than the fear of Trump among the white voters.

The fight is over the toss-up states where minority voters aren't enough to be decisive. In those states, white women have to break strongly for Hillary for her to win. That is far from a given. Her negatives are just as high as Trumps. Obama was able to win some of them, but Hillary is no Obama.

The possibility of an indictment (or rumors thereof) also has to be taken into account. Although it is not likely, it is possible now that the FBI is involved. If that happens, game over.

[VulgarPoet]

12. Hi, biracial. Hell no to both.

I'll either write in Bernie, write in Nyarlathotep, or abstain and just vote downticket dems.

[Codeine]

37. Azathoth or bust. nt

[NightWatcher]

15. How many voters will just stay home?

I'm predicting a very low turnout this November.

Does Hillary have more in her base or has trump whipped up more people into a froth?

[TDale313]

27. Worst case? High turnout among Trump supporters,

Very low turnout for Dems. Which unfortunately is what we've seen in the Primaries. They're energized. We're not.

[Nye Bevan]

28. How many women will stay home and help an all-time, raging misogynist become president,

as opposed to voting for the first ever woman president?

[sufrommich]

29. Why,all of them of course!

We simply can't win without the guiding hand of Bernie!

[wyldwolf]

18. I'm curious to see how people react to Trump's condescension of her in debates

[BernieforPres2016]

23. I won't react at all

I will not watch Hillary versus Trump debates if that's what it comes down to. I had tuned out politics for the last 5-6 years and if Bernie or a successor doesn't maintain a progressive movement against Citizens United and our political system of, by and for the 1%ers, I will tune it out again.

[wyldwolf]

25. good for you! Enjoy your stay.

[Jefferson23]

20. No one knows if she can beat him no matter what....but it will be a significant challenge.

Depending on who would go along as his VP pick, Trump would increase his
percentage of Hispanics.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/rubio-or-cruz-could-help-the-gop-win-over-more-latino-voters/

[Logical]

21. Explain the polls then. nt

[HassleCat]

30. Conventional wisdom says you're right.

Of course, conventional wisdom said Donald Trump would be toast by now. Instead, he's being toasted as the next president. Republican voter turnout is running pretty high. Trump can run to Clinton's left on certain issues, creating confusion much to his advantage. I remember a B-list movie actor who had been a mediocre governor, couldn't speak without a teleprompter, and attracted the nuttiest of nut jobs. He became president and wrecked the government. So strange things happen.

[Barack_America]

31. You forget a 3rd choice. Staying home.

Which is the worst case scenario for Dems and a huge risk in nominating Clinton.

[Nye Bevan]

35. I have a feeling that the prospect of President Trump will energize Democratic turnout. (nt)

[Barack_America]

39. My gut feeling tells me exactly the opposite.

This is probably why we support different candidates, in part.

[jeff47]

50. 1 letter: W.

"OMG Republicans are awful" has led to a long-term erosion of turnout for Democrats. Expecting different results with the same strategy is not a good idea.

[Nye Bevan]

52. Did W say anything like "blood coming out of her wherever"?

Or talk about "nailing" Princess Diana on a radio talk show?

True, he started a disastrous war. Which his opponent voted for.

[jeff47]

53. Yes. He had plenty of gaffes. And he won.

Again, this strategy has led to lower and lower turnout over decades. To expect the same strategy to suddenly cause a rebound is foolish.

"Trump is awful" convinces people to not vote for Trump. It doesn't convince people to vote for the Democrat. Voting is not zero-sum between two candidates.

[Nye Bevan]

55. I think "raging misogynist" versus "first woman president"

might pick up a few votes for Hillary. Not that I'm Nate Silver or anything.

[jeff47]

62. And there's lots of things that lose her votes too.

There's a reason Sanders is doing very well among those under 30 (or 40, depending on poll). Status quo has utterly failed them, and Clinton's pushing for status quo in her policies.

The attempted strategy to reverse that have been massive condescension, and apparently no awareness that this is exactly the wrong thing to do. "They'll come around" means "We don't give a shit if you don't like what we're offering".

As I've said from the beginning of this cycle, Clinton is an extremely dangerous general election candidate.

[napi21]

32. I admit, I was very surprised by an article in our paper today where quite a number

of college students at UGA (Univ. of Ga). Those who were "conservative" and Hispanic said they support Trump because they think HE is the only candidate who can get us out of the financial mess we're in today! The Hispanics who were Dems support Bernie.

Of the white conservative students mostly support Rubio with Trump second. The progressive white support Brnie almost exclusively.

This seems important to me because Tues. is Super Tuesday and we vote!

[BernieforPres2016]

38. It shouldn't be a shock that Trump will dominate the white frat boy vote

Take a look at the racist frat boy stunts from around the country like the SAE chapter at The University of Oklahoma singing a racist chant that they learned at the SAE national meeting. They were expelled from the University of Oklahoma after the video went public on YouTube and became a big scandal.

[Arazi]

40. Trump won 40 percent of the Latino vote in Nevada

beating the two other Latinos in the race - Cruz and Rubio

So yeah, Trump can do it and has demonstrated he can do it

[Nye Bevan]

42. That's 40% of Latinos who are registered Republicans.

A grand total of 132 were surveyed in the poll.

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/trump-took-victory-lap-winning-the-latino-vote-heres-why-hes-wrong

[Arazi]

44. We extrapolate those kinds of numbers all the time from small samples

Its been done in every primary/caucus so far so I don't buy that argument

regardless, the OP asked "how many non-whites will vote for Trump?"

There are hard numbers out there to examine and they do indicate that there are definitely non-whites who will vote for him

[Nye Bevan]

47. OK, I'll give Trump the Latinos who are registered Republicans.

Doesn't quite get him over the top, though.

[artislife]

45. Latina here, looking at Jill Stein if I need to vote

I probably will not vote for Hillary.

[Nye Bevan]

46. Donald "blood coming out of her wherever" Trump sincerely thanks you (nt)

[artislife]

68. Hill and Donald are not too politically different

He just may be more transparent.

[nsd]

72. Bullshit

To say that Clinton and Trump are "not too politically different" is so idiotic that the ordinary rules of civility do not apply.

Exhibit A: Trump and KKK

Anyone who thinks there is no difference between Clinton and Trump probably shouldn't vote at all.

[nadinbrzezinski]

70. In states like California and South Carolina who people vote for

outside of the two parties, it matters little... they will go blue and red respectively even if either party ran The Prince of Darkness-Chuthulu ticket...

You should start to worry about the usual suspects though. I am almost willing to bet that the state of Florida will go for Trump for example.

[Reter]

48. A better queastion is what percentage of DUers will support her?

I'd imagine only 75%, with 22% either saying home or voting 3rd party. The other 3% vote Trump.

[Sky Masterson]

51. I hate to say it but there are a lot of White women who just hate Hillary.

I know this because I live in Kansas

[Nye Bevan]

59. Three white woman having a coffee:

First woman: "well yes, he said that Megyn Kelly was having her period",
Second woman: "and yes, he attacked Carly Fiorina's looks and said he would nail Princess Diana",
Third woman: "but you know what? I can't stand Hillary. I'm voting for Trump anyway".

Credible?

[Sky Masterson]

61. I am not saying that she doesn't have the support of White women

I'm just saying that where I live and among my five sisters(Who are right -wingers) none of them like Hillary.
It's unreasonable but its built in. She has a built in demographic of slightly stupid Americans who have been conditioned to dislike her.
Me, I'll vote for her if she gets the Nod, but I won't like it.

[EdwardBernays]

54. Trump is beating her in Florida

in the most recent polls...

And will beat you her all over the place in November.

I know you guys all like to think Trump can't win... you know who else thought that? The entire media and GOP establishment... they have been repeating it for months...

It was as true from them as it is from Hillary supporters...

And when Trump wins, you'll finally have to admit what your cult of personality has wrought.

[Politicalboi]

57. It's not color that is going to beat or help her

It's her OWN LIES that will do her in. Good luck with thinking black/white/brown/ will decide this. Keep scratching your head.

[glowing]

60. How many of us don't see the difference between Hillary and Trump?

[Live and Learn]

63. I've heard from many of the populations you mentioned that they won't vote for Hillary.

Perhaps you need to start seeing people as just people and not divisions of people.

[Nye Bevan]

64. Did you read the news yesterday? (nt)

[Live and Learn]

65. I read lots of news yesterdday. What a silly question. nt

[2pooped2pop]

66. The question is; how many of any race will bother to vote

Only Clinton's. urrent supporters have any excitement about her what so ever. But Republicans will come out in force to vote against her.

If Clinton wins-we all lose

[Jefferson23]

67. Keep in mind the establishment is still trying to remove him. They're using the KKK endorsements

via David Duke etc. But I ask you, if his supporters believe he was unfairly outed
they have to know they may lose voters at the polls. Considering Trumps loose
cannon ego, how do they know he will go quietly into the horizon? Do you see
how problematic that is for them? In this regard it could help Hillary win the WH.


The guy has taken down the GOP as we know it.

[nadinbrzezinski]

71. They are thinking of running third party

which incidentally will save the democratic hide in November... but it will be close. That is the only dynamic that will change this right at the moment.

[Jefferson23]

73. I have to tell you I have no idea. Trump has far exceeded what I believed was possible.

Anecdotal: I hear in my state of Connecticut, conservatives here are not
the social conservative variety..for the most part. They hate the establishment
so much so they'll take their chances with Trump..what shocked me are the
ones who said if their side puts up an establishment guy, they'll vote for Bernie
should he win the nomination on our side. The common denominator from their
view, they hate the trade deals and hate corruption in WS.

It is shameful how they as a group do not have a Bernie for the right wing.
They still look for leadership that confirms their worst fears and hatred
of the other to end the "ills" of society.

Now that Trump has a governor and a US Senator behind him, it is
hard to see how they'll eliminate him without enraging Trumps
supporters.

[nadinbrzezinski]

74. We started taking him seriously way back last year

One thing I did after the word salad of his announcement is that it sounded strangely familiar, So I cozied up to hitler and mussolini. There is a reason why some have called him Hither. also he is a fan of those speeches.

This is one of the many stories that came and disappeared on this

http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trumps-ex-wife-once-said-he-kept-a-book-of-hitlers-speeches-by-his-bed-2015-8

So after a week or so... I knew he was going to go this far, The conditions are for a change election, whether the party leadership on both sides, want it or not. And Trump will be a nightmare

[Jefferson23]

75. Yea, and he is so far a formidable candidate..a snake oil salesman in all ways.

When he faked the I don't know who David Duke is I thought ok, he
really does not want to rule out anyone who may vote for him in
the primary. The irony as I see it is to listen to the establishment
cry, Trump is a bigot..BUT not us!

A truly bizarre election cycle which the GOP unintentionally
fueled over many years. They helped create this monster
and with that said, my greater fear is a Cruz presidency but
even with Hilary's baggage she should be able to take him and
win. Many Republicans in my area hate that guy, they think
he's nuts...again, not socially conservative here for the most
part.

The question is, if Trump wins the nomination who will be
his VP pick? If it's Christie, this will be a difficult fight for
Hillary. I worry about the Independents with Clinton, they
are a crap shoot.

[nadinbrzezinski]

76. This has been fueling on both sides.

This is not just trump

I ran this last december

http://reportingsandiego.com/2015/12/30/the-year-in-national-politics/

Look at this from Politico

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/02/why-donald-trump-and-bernie-sanders-were-inevitable-213685#ixzz41X8Ozu6p

But if the democratic party, and it is THEIR FUCKING PARTY, runs Hillary, they are going to lose, and get wiped in the general. We all are going to pay for it. On the bright side,. I do not think the movement for progressives will die... but it will be heavily tested.

Historians will have fun unpacking this election... there is so much crap out there... as to acknowledging Duke, that is one of the things his base loves. This man will not back down on anything. One just has to understand the dynamics.

And right now, he is saying that they he might pick up New York in the general, according to polling, NY state is now in play. He is quoting a CNN poll. This is precisely the kind of braggadocio that will get him the WH.

[Jefferson23]

79. Thank you for the links.

On our side, oh yes..I feel Clinton will only prolong the disconnect
a little longer should she win..which is not going to be easy for her in the GE.

The DNC was not prepared for Bernie and did not see him as a threat,
they saw Warren in that role. With her agreement not to run, they feel
they'll pull this off and they might. Bernie was never suppose to do this well.
Obama twice felt the need to unofficially endorse her despite saying he would
remain neutral.

This movement is not about Bernie, maybe they are beginning to wake up
to that reality..some sound gleeful when they say, where are the young
voters? Too busy texting?

It is cynical time in many ways but they should not discount us, we're not going away,
this is the beginning, not the end.

[nadinbrzezinski]

80. This started way back

I see the WTO protests as precursors (globally, this is not just limited to the US), and either the student revolt in 2009 at Berkeley, or OWS as the direct precursor, as well as the Tea Party.

But if the powers that be do not allow for peaceful helpful change that benefits the people, they will end up with a revolution.

[Jefferson23]

81. I want to see a peaceful transition but I don't see any evidence to believe they're

going to acquiesce easily.

[nadinbrzezinski]

82. power concedes nothing