For shits and giggles my prediction through Super Tuesday thread

[morningfog]

As of today: H-52 B-51

53 pledged delegates up for grabs in SC tomorrow. I give Hillary 32 and Bernie 21.

878 pledged delegates in play on Super Tuesday, as follows (with my numbers as (H/B)):

Texas - 222 (134/88)
Georgia- 102 (61/41)
Massachusetts - 91 (40/51)
Virginia - 95 (53/42)
Minnesota - 77 (34/43)
Colorado - 66 (29/37)
Tennessee - 67 (36/31)
Alabama - 53 (32/21)
Arkansas - 32 (19/13)
Oklahoma - 38 (20/18)
Vermont - 16 (0/16)
American Samoa - 6 (3/3)
Democrats Abroad - 13 (6/7)

Once the Super Tuesday dust settles, I think the delegate count will be around: H - 551 B - 483.

A difference of 68 delegates, with only about a quarter of them being allocated. After ST, there will be 3017 pledged delegates up for grabs and a long way for either candidate to get to a majority of the pledged delegates: 2026.

I use 2026 as the number to win rather than 2382 because 2382 is the number needed to clinch the nomination at the convention, and includes the super delegates. I believe the supers would only allow the nomination to go to the candidate with a majority of the pledged delegates.

Disclaimer: these predictions are based on a mix of recent polls, trends, media-driven narratives, pulling it out of my ass and some guesses.

[BillyDawg]

1. So this is probably a worse case scenario for Hillary

And that still looks pretty damn good.

[Flying Squirrel]

7. Actually might not be a worst-case scenario for her.

The polls can't really keep up with the mind-changing at this point and Bernie has consistently been improving. So I think it's entirely possible that there will be some surprises in store on Tuesday, in his favor.

Three different DUers have now come up with very similar numbers, between 546-551 for Hillary and between 471-476 for Bernie. You don't often see such close predictions... But if they're right then Hillary once again has a real battle on her hands just like 2008, except that this time the schedule favors Bernie more because more delegates are still up for grabs after ST and his numbers just continue to go up.



And the bad press just keeps coming for Hillary... I almost feel sorry for her. Bernie will probably overtake her in pledged delegates by the end of April (or sooner).

[Live and Learn]

2. And Bernie and his supporters will continue working towards the nomination. K&R nt

[morningfog]

4. Absolutely.

Bernie has nothing to lose staying in and everything to gain. There is too much unpredictability, especially this year, to get out early. Let every state vote and every delegate count.

[Live and Learn]

5. Definitely. nt

[EndElectoral]

3. Super Tuesday is primarily composed of Southern States, HRC's strength.

After that it should get interesting. Mass. and Vermont should do well for Bernie.

[Flying Squirrel]

6. That's pretty close to what I and someone else guessed

Though we had different splits in different states. I ended up with 550 Hillary, 471 Bernie (didn't guess on Democrats Abroad yet but wouldn't be surprised to see a bigger number for Bernie there). But I had already given Bernie too many in NV so a revised estimate would give him 474 and Hillary 560 counting Democrats Abroad. But I made those guesses a week ago and haven't rechecked the polls since then.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1280120318

In the other thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511329259

Someone gave HRC 580 and Bernie 441 without D.A., someone else said 548-471 (think she missed a couple delegates somewhere).

So you're slightly more optimistic than me, by about 9. Hoping you're right, or that he does even better.

[restorefreedom]

8. good estimate. i do hope and think that virgini might be a bit closer. nt