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Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
Fri Feb 26, 2016, 10:16 PM Feb 2016

And here is why everyone should stop paying attention to the Reuters Polling

So a few days ago, a lot of collective minds were blown by Bernie being up by 7 in the Reuters daily tracking...with all filters turned off including party affiliation (Which generally gets overlooked). The day of that result was February 22nd. Well, the extremely favorable polling day for Bernie has since timed-out. Let's see what has happened:

No Filters:
Feb 22: BS 42.8 HRC 35.6
Feb 26: BS 40.5 HRC 39.5
That is a 6 point swing to Hillary in 4 days! Wow! Or, February 22 was noise

How about with people who self identify as democrats?
Feb 22: BS 47.3 HRC 44.6
Feb 26: HRC 47.4 BS 43.8
Why they practically switched places! That is another 6 point swing!

Now how about registered democrats?
Feb 22: HRC 46.8 BS 46.1
Feb 26: HRC 48.8 BS 44.3


You get the idea (I would do likely democratic voter, too, but that is still only updated through Feb 23)

So the choice is a pretty easy one with Reuters modifiable daily tracking. You can either a) cherry-pick days of data and filters to tell a story (As USUncut did) b) take it at face value and accept that the race is having significant shifts in support between candidates every few days c) ignore it as anything other than an entertainment tool.

I've made no bones about my choice over the past several months, which is option C. Reuters daily tracking produces just awful metrics.

(All info taken from the interactive charts you can play with at polling.reuters.com)

7 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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And here is why everyone should stop paying attention to the Reuters Polling (Original Post) Godhumor Feb 2016 OP
My own polling RobertEarl Feb 2016 #1
You amaze me! NurseJackie Feb 2016 #2
Free stuff Iliyah Feb 2016 #3
When using talking points from Glenn Beck's TheBlaze, it's good practice to cite them. nt TheBlackAdder Feb 2016 #5
And a Saturday bump n/t Godhumor Feb 2016 #4
Oh look, the "poll" was posted again. Better bump n/t Godhumor Feb 2016 #6
I depend on online polls. grossproffit Feb 2016 #7
 

RobertEarl

(13,685 posts)
1. My own polling
Fri Feb 26, 2016, 10:40 PM
Feb 2016

I've polled a hundred individuals face to fave. Most were strangers.

80% for Bernie

10% for Hillary

10% for a republican. And 50% of them liked Bernie.

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