2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHoly crap! Odds of Clinton nomination now at 93%!
Nominee:
HRC - 93%
Sanders - 7%
President:
HRC - 58%
Trump - 24%
Rubio - 12%
Sanders - 4%
And for a bonus all odds of 90% or better for either candidate in upcoming primaries:
Clinton:
South Carolina - 99%
Alabama - 98%
Arkansas - 98%
Georgia - 98%
Tennessee - 96%
Texas - 98%
Virginia - 96%
Louisiana - 96%
Sanders:
Vermont - 99%
http://predictwise.com
LexVegas
(6,094 posts)KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)Stallion
(6,476 posts)nm
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)LexVegas
(6,094 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)She can't be trusted!
vdogg
(1,384 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)brooklynite
(94,727 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)That count will still be the only one that matters. HIllary will take the lead, no doubt about it. But, the race is, and will be then still, far from over.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)She will lose the general election.
You couldn't pay anyone I know to vote for her. I literally know NO ONE who will vote for her and all my friends are liberal.
daleanime
(17,796 posts)when, if she doesn't win, it will be our fault some how.
All we can do is work and hope she doesn't make it out of the primary.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)The next two weeks will be BRUTAL for Bernie in the media. He'll lose in the South, where I live, but I've started pointing out to my Bernie friends and family that it really shouldn't matter. While delegates are split, Electoral College votes aren't and no Democrat is going to win the vast majority of Southern states in the general. Just pick up some delegates and move on. This will pass.
Once the election goes North and West, Bernie will pull back up. Just bear down, don't get discouraged and keep fighting.
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)Most will vote Green. There may be a few who vote for her, but more will just give up on the two-party system as most liberals are.
wyldwolf
(43,869 posts)Doesn't that mean he wins the nomination??
yawnmaster
(2,812 posts)Stallion
(6,476 posts)nm
Lucinda
(31,170 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)If it was a football game I suspect it would be on the magnitude of The Chicago Bears Super Bowl XX win.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)If Hillary walks away with 4 delegates for every 1 of Bernie's on Super Tuesday, that would be a virtual sweep, I agree.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)I'm going to say that current projections for SC, ST and beyond more than qualify for a virtual sweep as things stand now.
MaggieD
(7,393 posts)Bernie has no upcoming blow outs to make up for what is going to happen in the next 10 days. None. It is essentially over for him after that. Whether he drops out or not. Thats why he only hired people through Mid March.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)MaggieD
(7,393 posts)Texas alone has 222. Yeah, enjoy Vermont.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)Duh.
stonecutter357
(12,697 posts)restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)casperthegm
(643 posts)Wonder what her odds would be if the ongoing FBI investigation results in and indictment.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)There will be no indictment and the GOP wet dream will remain just that.
casperthegm
(643 posts)Unless you know someone within the FBI or DOJ you can't make that claim. Well, you can, but you have no basis for it. The odds may be against it- I really don't know. Does anyone really? But considering how Sanders has shown better judgement on every topic of debate I'm hoping that people will realize that it's too risky to take a chance on Clinton and vote for the candidate with the better record.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)I can say with reasonable certainty that it is highly unlikely Secretary Clinton will be indicted...
This is the way I see it... Almost every Democratic former prosecutor says she won't be indicted...Almost every Republican former prosecutor wants to hang her...Who controls the DOJ?
casperthegm
(643 posts)I wish I could say the same for HRC. Guess you are more forgiving than I am, so a tip of the hat to you in that regard.
I see your point regarding the current state of the DOJ, though I don't know if I'd call that an unbiased position on their part if politics played a role in what "should" be a unbiased inquiry. I suppose I am too idealistic when it comes to the law. Thanks for the conversation.
vdogg
(1,384 posts)The justice department is an independent agency, but she still serves at the pleasure of the president. I don't think Hillary has done anything indictable anyway, as the emails were classified after the fact, but this is the reality of the situation.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)President:
HRC - 58%
Trump - 24%
Rubio - 12%
Sanders - 4%
http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)who have a vested interest in maintining status quo, for my info
but that might just be me.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)so we will need lots of
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)if she even manages to become nom, which is questionable
MaggieD
(7,393 posts)She'll get by him just fine.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)hillary is an opoortunistic liar who favors wall st.
get used to saying "president trump"
MaggieD
(7,393 posts)restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)MaggieD
(7,393 posts)Do you think that trump disapproval rating of 60% doesn't include independents?
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)with one candidate anti E and one candidate the E personified, if their negatives cancel each other out, which one has the edge?
also, as many have pointed out, turnout on dem side is not super high, while the repubs are setting records for turnout.
even with all other things being equal, THAT is what is going to destroy the election for the dems.
turnout.
grossproffit
(5,591 posts)restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)Response to restorefreedom (Reply #11)
wyldwolf This message was self-deleted by its author.
wyldwolf
(43,869 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)Progressivism and pragmatism aren't mutually exclusive and a prudent person wouldn't pit one against the other.
I am an utopian who likes to get things done.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)Seeking clarification.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)For reference I pull -7s on the Political Compass.. . That puts me to the left of Nelson Mandela and the Dalai Lama. However I take man as he is and not how I would like him to be. That's where the pragmatism kicks in...
wyldwolf will be wlydwolf...
wyldwolf
(43,869 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)trump or sanders will be the next president
LexVegas
(6,094 posts)draa
(975 posts)She has succeeded in doing one thing though. She drove more people away from the Democratic Party than any other person in history.
If Clinton is the nominee then turnout this year will make 2014 midterms look like a Democratic revolution by comparison.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)mythology
(9,527 posts)What does it say that Sanders is losing to her even with an electorate that is more favorable to Sanders than the GE will be?
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)In a general election, Sanders would fare better because Independents like him. They don't like her. She's really only popular in the Democratic Party and, even then, she has a challenger in Bernie - maybe not in the South, but the South doesn't vote Dem in a general elections anyway.
The point is that she will really only have about 60-70 percent of 30 percent of the electorate and you can't win an election that way.
draa
(975 posts)From the very beginning he's be marginalized by the DNC and the Democratic Party in general. They've done every thing in their power to keep his message from getting out. That's not conspiracy or hyperbole either. Just look at the string of lies about Sanders coming from that party. That's all the proof you need.
He was also unknown by all but the most rabid political followers when he entered the race. That means where Clinton has had 25+ years for people to know her, Sanders had about 9 months. And look where he's at in just that short time.
It's not that he's losing because of his message it's just that he's a relative unknown. And for what it's worth, regardless of the state to state polls, Sanders is actually leading her in much of the national polling we've seen lately so he's not really losing. In fact, he's right where Obama was in 2008 as far as polling trajectory. If Super Tuesday was that important the primary in 2008 wouldn't have went to June. Sanders will be fine.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)46 years old an voted for Democrats since I was 18 - and that was for Dukakis!!!
Granted, I never had to register with the party to vote since I'm in a open primary, but it will seem odd to vote Green in a national presidential election.
Beacool
(30,251 posts)restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)MaggieD
(7,393 posts)They said he was winning in all 50 states. Damn, I feel misled now.
whatchamacallit
(15,558 posts)We better quit right now.
taught_me_patience
(5,477 posts)Wtf...now I've heard it all.
Herman4747
(1,825 posts)the people who determine the odds at Predictwise are experts on American elections. These same people are betting on the Academy Awards too!!!
Are they scholars, Godhumor? If so, what universities are they associated with? Are they historians? Are they statisticians? Or are they instead ordinary "punters" as the British would say?
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)They're not being on anything. They're aggregating predictive markets and reporting results. That includes predictive markets for politics, sports and award shows, which are all separate marketplaces.
Herman4747
(1,825 posts)Actor X has a 43% chance of winning the Best Actor Award? Come on!
Please, for your own integrity, NO MORE PREDICTWISE!
Sinistrous
(4,249 posts)His Yahoos plus the rabid repug Hillery haters plus disillusioned real Democrats not voting will weave a red carpet for him straight into the White House.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)Hillary, on the other hand, is higher than every other candidate combined at 58%
Lil Missy
(17,865 posts)Wait, wut?
Impedimentus
(898 posts)Yes, just more polls and betting crap. Will the poster place a $10,000 bet with a bookie on this ? Hah.
Stallion
(6,476 posts)sure would like to hear his prognostication before I can be sure
Alfresco
(1,698 posts)madfloridian
(88,117 posts)Just like the predictors and pollsters pick out the most likely to win and go from there??
oasis
(49,407 posts)Hillary's the One.
hifiguy
(33,688 posts)Prepare for a Goldwater/McGovern style shellacking in November.
zappaman
(20,606 posts)#berniemath
Number23
(24,544 posts)Loudestlib
(980 posts)Wasted my time
dchill
(38,532 posts)That HRC makes it to the convention before being forced into dropping out. Is there a poll on that?
Didn't think so.
great white snark
(2,646 posts)AZ Progressive
(3,411 posts)"Give up Bernie supporters, the house will win!"