2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNew Poll Shows Sanders Ahead of Clinton by Widest Margin Yet
OK, Bernie will probably lose South Carolina; but, I wouldn't order the cake for the coronation yet! The latest Reuters/Ipso poll shows Bernie ahead nationally by six points:
CentralMass
(15,265 posts)TheFarseer
(9,326 posts)I think if he can win 6 of the 12 places voting on tues, this could still be do-able.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)Why not point out that it isn't a winner take all system so Bernie is going to get a lot of delegates even if he only wins a few states. Then, his turn starts shortly after but even then his strongest base states still won't be until the very end end.
It's deliberately designed to keep out real economic liberals.
AzDar
(14,023 posts)Go, Bernie... GO!!
Lucinda
(31,170 posts)on raw data. They are quoting numbers from this non weighted unfiltered version:
http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/
revbones
(3,660 posts)You can filter the data if you want a subset that will show Hillary winning, but overall Sanders leads.
Realistically you're not going to have only those aged 50+ with $100k income voting.
Lucinda
(31,170 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)There is a specific filter for likely Democratic voters. That result everyone is discussing is for the unfiltered total of all respondents regardless of political leaning, registration etc. Using the actual likely voter screen is Clinton +7. And using Reuters official total for the week, as found on Pollster, is Clinton +5.
whatchamacallit
(15,558 posts)DrDan
(20,411 posts)Reuters also found that Sanders would win in a landslide against GOP frontrunner Donald Trump, taking 43.6 percent to Trump's 30.4 percent, in a survey of 1,574 respondents.
beat trump by 13 . . . geez louise - must be an on-line poll
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Real Clear Politics and Pollster show the national race with Hillary about 5% ahead, but those aggregations include polls of likely voters (most accurate) and mere registered voters and all adults, and when you aggregate the polls of only likely voters, Hillary's lead falls by half:
If you then cut out a complete bullshit pollster like Gravis (showed huge pro-Hillary house effects in Iowa and New Hampshire), the national race is tied:
kgnu_fan
(3,021 posts)vdogg
(1,384 posts)Yet like a cockroach, it never dies. If Bernie is ahead 6 points national then he'll win all Super Tuesday states in a landslide. See you March 1st.
Maedhros
(10,007 posts)What this poll shows is that, nationally, Bernie Sanders is more popular than Hillary Clinton. Registered Democrats probably skew Hillary's way, because they tend to be timid and select what they consider to be the safest choice - which, in this context, means 'name recognition.'
Much of Sanders' support comes from those who have been marginalized and ignored by the Party - independents and unregistered voters. His challenge is to activate those people, and so far he appears to be succeeding.
BillZBubb
(10,650 posts)That's where Hillary's base of support resides. Look for Sanders to start booming after Super Tuesday when more blue states start voting.
vdogg
(1,384 posts)Where Hillary is up double digits? We really need to retire this red states don't matter meme too. Those Dems in red states still vote for congress too...
BillZBubb
(10,650 posts)The red states don't matter for us in the electoral vote. The red states are SO gerrymandered they hardly matter in the congressional vote either. You know that (I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt).
MaggieD
(7,393 posts)http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_democratic_presidential_primary-3556.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_democratic_presidential_primary-5224.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-4167.html
National polls are meaningless at this point.