2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNew Clinton poll has Hillary leading Bernie 123% to -23%
Can I get a job as a Clinton pollster?
Skwmom
(12,685 posts)99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)Hillary will love hearing those poll results.
Good luck.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)More so the following Tuesday when she sweeps him right out of the south.
JackRiddler
(24,979 posts)You're setting the bar for Clinton incredibly high with your 50-point margins, blah blah. Any result better than these inflated poll predictions turns into a win for Sanders, and he isn't going to go away after this supposed massacre in the South, no matter what happens.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)And I can't wait.
senz
(11,945 posts)was directed more toward happiness for your candidate than sangfroid toward those who support a different candidate I would ... well ... think rather highly of you.
azurnoir
(45,850 posts)I mean no Republican has done that
Lordquinton
(7,886 posts)The liberal ones will lean towards Sanders.
brooklynite
(94,727 posts)intersting perspective.
Lordquinton
(7,886 posts)California, Oregon, Washington, true blue reliable states placed at the back of the pack, why? We should be starting at the west coast and move east.
brooklynite
(94,727 posts)(FWIW - California always wants to go last)
You realize, by the way, that if California went first, candidates like Sanders would never succeed, because the State is so large that retail campaigning is impractical?
Lordquinton
(7,886 posts)JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)Except for those two recent years it was a Democratic super Tuesday state.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Democratic_primary,_2004
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Democratic_primary,_2000
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)see post 49 as to why they are not doing that anymore though, and it has none to do with either Democrats or Republicans.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)the state party did not chose to go last. The state did. The state experimented with moving the primary to a March date, a few years back, when every body else did. That kind of frustrated them. That poster does not know this, but the parties do not fund the primary, the state does. (We are progressive that way, and the State believes that parties should have as little as possible to the actual running of elections as possible... for some odd reason). The cost of doing the primary separately from the June election is high, the state says prohibitively high. So they basically have it the same day as the June ballot.
It pisses me off, from the we would like to influence the process a tad more. After all when June comes, most likely I will be voting for the minimum wage initiative on the ballot, and a few other things that matter to me. The Primary, if we actually matter, I will be shocked and since this is an OPEN PRIMARY STATE, and yes both parties agreed in the end, one can be strategic about it and that happened over the last two cycles. We moved to a modified form of run on voting for State offices as well, it was actually a Republican idea, and it works great... I WISH we could do that for federal offices.
I WISH the party stopped enforcing the very much unwritten Willie Brown rule, that states you shan't run a challenger for any democrat in office who is in good standing.... becuase you know what? I expect that idiocy to cost the dems my congressman's seat (and there won't be too many tears locally either). Why? Labor got him over the top last time. Labor already said we ain't playing this time around due to TPP. And the Rs seem to be running a better candidate this time. Carl DeMaio was really flawed. Trust me, in San Diego running a gay man, in certain quarters might have cost them the few thousand votes by which Peters won. We are progressive, but we still have some very conservative pockets if you will. I can almost point to what neighborhoods.
But that is what the party does... they do not set the election in any way, shape or form. Neither party has no say in this.
That has transformed California into a Ka-Ching machine for BOTH parties. And yes I have asked the Democratic chairman about this already, and I am not shy... when the opportunity comes, I will ask the Republican. (By the way, on tape, so it is on record). The answer from the Dem back in 2012 was kind of troubling by the way. They have no issue with politicians not really campaigning here, and consistently raise the retail politics.
Yet, the person you are talking too, retail politics is harder, but not impossible... just ask a master of it, Ronald Wilson Reagan, who did that, very well thank you very much, as both governor and President, in 1979 he launched his campaign here in San Diego, and then went to towns all over the state before going to the usual suspects for the early primaries. Reagan, with all his defects, is still remembered fondly by many Californians, for actually doing that, wether they agree with him or not. That was the last presidential candidate that actually gave a hoot to do that in California, and the calendar was not favorable either... and for god sakes, he was well known in the state already as a two term governor.
So a lot of it is just common sense knowledge that none wants to test. Doing revolving primaries gets shot down regularly as well.
I consider this country to have a fantasy democracy and every so often they reinforce it.
Lordquinton
(7,886 posts)Amazing post that I presume will be ignored.
The Run on voting I'm not a fan of. Here in the Bay we had a couple good senators replaced by the corporate dem version.
Everyone loves to come up with reasons why it has to be the way it is, but it all comes down to manipulation.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)but it will also sharpen the retail politics of it. I think the first two times it will be harder for the actual politicians to adapt, I give it three or four cycles before everybody adapts. It took that long in other countries. I would personally like it to go for all offices, including the presidency. (And for this last one, national, but that would require a NATIONAL primary day if you will)
And that poster, he is posting from NY and presumes to know all about the party since he is a party insider in NEW YORK. California is a very strange critter, becuase it has moved from yes, parties had a say in how elections were run to not so fast, in the least generation. It is leading the country in that respect.
Lordquinton
(7,886 posts)The nation follows.
Putting California towards the front would force the candidates to come out to the left right off the start, instead of middle of the road to right leaning policies with the red states going first.
NY forgets that not everywhere is like them.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)John also pointed out to the 2000 and 2004 primaries when California was part of the Super Tuesday mix.
vdogg
(1,384 posts)They post poll after poll but the minute you post one showing HRC doing good they have a fit.
lovemydog
(11,833 posts)still has Sanders 'surging!'
No offense meant.
I think all these polls are kind of hilarious now. Did anyone see Ted Cruz and Donald Trump yelling at each other about poll numbers?
I wonder when they're going to get passionate about what they'll do for the American people, as our democratic candidates do.
Impedimentus
(898 posts)?
lovemydog
(11,833 posts)And I'm a Marxist too.
'Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.' - Groucho Marx
6chars
(3,967 posts)123% - (-23%) = 146%
did you check the crosstabs?
Impedimentus
(898 posts)6chars
(3,967 posts)Ichingcarpenter
(36,988 posts)other than that your'e hired.
Impedimentus
(898 posts)Actually, I failed Old School
Segami
(14,923 posts)BWHAHAHAHAHAHA...........
Peace Patriot
(24,010 posts)What was he thinking about? I laugh just thinking about what he might have been thinking about to pull off that performance.
Response to Impedimentus (Original post)
nadinbrzezinski This message was self-deleted by its author.
senz
(11,945 posts)The brain-dead vacuousness of these endless streams of bragging OPs saying nothing but "this poll has my candidate ahead of yours" is one of the biggest turnoffs on DU.
I like your avatar, too!
silvershadow
(10,336 posts)jtuck004
(15,882 posts)Gene Debs
(582 posts)Helen Borg
(3,963 posts)Fuddnik
(8,846 posts)youceyec
(394 posts)shouts a lot. Can't vote for a shouter.
ebayfool
(3,411 posts)Turbineguy
(37,365 posts)playing at arithmetic again?
malokvale77
(4,879 posts)LemmingWarrior
(115 posts)telling of her Bosnia airport story. Waiting for her to have another such moment this time around....
LexVegas
(6,094 posts)madokie
(51,076 posts)has been showing Bernie up by 6 to 7 percent of likely voters
No I'm not going to do your work for you, I just got up
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)The only poll at either RCP or Pollster that shows Bernie up mationally is the Faux News poll. All the others still show Clinton on top, though the race did dramaticallt tighten after New Hampshire, according to most polls. More importantly, the polls show Bernie is about to get creamed on Super Tuesday.
madokie
(51,076 posts)But like I said you google it I'm not going to be bothered. For starters I don't post bullshit on this or any site
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)I'm not saying the poll doesn't exist. I'm saying it that whether it exists or not, you're cherry picking the one poll most favorable to you and your candidate. That would be like me quoting the recent Morning Consult poll showing Hillary up 50-35. Could it be true? Sure, but it is not consistent with most other polls showing a tighter race.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)That is the one he is talking about, and I am not doing your homework either.
For the record, due to the shenanigans of both 2000 and 2004 I know polls at times are very good, and at times are crap, so I take ALL polls with some salt these days.
For the second record, Gallup is not doing them this year, and they were honest... they said it had to do with their methodology.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)The Reuters "poll" everyone went gaga for this week was a custom one with all filters removed completely, including party affiliation. It was like someone playing with Pollster's customize chart option and then writing a post about it.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)but whatever.
As I said, these days because of 2000, and 2004 in the United Staes, this is way too much inside baseball but since the same outfit was involved in Mexico in 2006 during the presidential, and that outfit has good days and bad days, pretty much pass the salt when it comes to polls.
There are other examples around the world by the way, when polls started to fail to tell the story staring 2000.
They used to be very effective. These days I see them as just another tool to manipulate the public and another nail in whatever passes for democracy these days. And my dear, that is not limited to the United States. Historians somebody, assuming the species survives... will have a field day with this period of history...
(Oh and before you say a thing about 2012, they were ON THE NOSE on that one)
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)Go to Reuters, remove all filters and compare the numbers to USUncut. Then add the likely Democratic Primary Voter filter and tell us what it says. Here, I'll help you. It is 51-44, Hillary.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)but go ahead and google mitofsky and 2004, and same outfit, and Mexico 2006 presidential election.
For completeness, google News Consortium and 2000 election
And if you really want to look into it, go for rigged polling and elections.
As I said, I take them with salt, some of them more than others, but that happens nonetheless.
This is a discussion that is happening... alas not with partisans of either side. Yeah, yeah, republicans were screaming about it in 2012, and yes some democrats are screaming about it this year... but you know what? There is something to it. It is not conspiracy. The question is how much... and yes, you can manipulate whole populations.
I posted yesterday a story on how google might rig this election, after the twittervese started to scream they are censoring the trends for #whichhillary... (same shit happened in Mexico incidentally during the presidential election and during Ayotzinapa the difference is that the Mexican press actually covered it), Well guess what? There might be something to it. Do I expect the NYT to get to this story? Nope. Never mind there is a nice story in politico and here, about how they might do this from 2015.
Nor do I expect some folks to be troubled about it.
Here, DU internal link
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511342777
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)that is what you took from that post. This is why this discussion is a waste of time with your type.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)has been showing Bernie up by 6 to 7 percent of likely voters
No I'm not going to do your work for you, I just got up
I like to work:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/national-primary-polls/democratic/
madokie
(51,076 posts)grossproffit
(5,591 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Bernies the undisputed king of the online polls
Congrats bros...feel that Bern
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)FIXED
DrDan
(20,411 posts)PonyUp
(1,680 posts)Impedimentus
(898 posts)... and made up stuff.
Octafish
(55,745 posts)I read it somewhere just now.
Orsino
(37,428 posts)Don't count your chickens yet!
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)Is only poll old rich people on landlines.
Note: one recent SC poll only included voters who had previously voted in 3 presidential primaries....that's only 30 years old and up! LOL!
Response to Impedimentus (Original post)
Corruption Inc This message was self-deleted by its author.