Amateur Strategist Hour - Where to Stick / Twist?
Okay, so we know that Obama still has what most polls agree is a slender lead in Ohio. We know that he's usually shown as being up in Nevada and within a point or two either way in Virginia, Iowa and Wisconsin. Clearly those states are very winnable and offer several routes to 270.
On the other hand, an increasing number show him lapsing significantly in Florida, North Carolina and Colorado.
Putting my Amateur Strategist hat on, I'd be inclined to pull out of two of the latter three. NC would be definite, and though a victory in Florida would bear considerably more fruit, it also requires a lot more money than Colorado. HOWEVER, it's also a state that Adelson, Koch and Rove (sounds like the worst fucking law firm you'd ever have the misfortune to stumble upon) like dumping a lot of money into.
With all that in mind, I would be inclined to get out of NC and Colorado while maintaining a presence in Florida - It's probably going to end up as little more than a diversion, but if it keeps the outside groups from deploying the full force of their RomneyAid elsewhere, I don't think it's the worst thing given that Obama pulled in the best part of $200m last month. The bulk of the money can be used in the five swing states that Obama seems to have the upper-hand.
So...what would you do? The polls are really shaky at the moment, we cannot see the internals and - as the debate proved - there's a lot of evidence that both Obama and Romney stand to gain / lose a lot of "soft" support at the drop of a hat, but using the present as a snapshot, where would your focus be?
