Suffolk/KSNV: NEVADA - (Obama +2)

[TroyD]

Has this one been posted yet today? Looks like Nevada is still holding for Obama.

Suffolk University/KSNV

10/6-­‐10/9

Likely General Election Voters

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NEVADA (Obama +2)

Obama 47

Romney 45


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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Suffolk_NV_1011.pdf

[Drunken Irishman]

1. It should be pointed out that there is a saying in Nevada...

If the Democrat leads or trails in the polls narrowly, they'll win the state. Turnout is always important in Nevada and with the unions strong there, as well as a strong Hispanic population, the Democrats almost always outperform the polls.

Harry Reid did in 2010 - he trailed by 2.7 in the final average of polls and won by a margin of 5.6.

Barack Obama had only a 6.5 margin in the average of polls and won the state by 12.4 - essentially a six-point difference.

Bush led in the average of polls in Nevada by a margin of 6.3, but only won the state by 3.5 ... so, Kerry outperformed the poll by nearly three points.

If the average poll puts Obama up, even if narrowly, he's going to win this state.

[TroyD]

2. Plus the polling history so far

In 2012, Romney has not led in a single NV poll - the best he has ever done is a Tie.

And yes, Democrats have a better ground machine in NV, as Reid demonstrated against Angle.