2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumObama may be over-performing in the swing states
Over-performing; I hate that expression. 'Winning'/'clobbering' sounds much better!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/obama-may-be-over-performing-in-the-swing-states/2012/10/11/4abcf480-13cd-11e2-be82-c3411b7680a9_blog.html
Obama may be over-performing in the swing states
By Greg Sargent
Nate Silver and Nate Cohn both dig into the numbers today and suggest that theres evidence Obama may now be leading in the swing states while remaining even with or behind Mitt Romney nationally. Some of the polling models show Romneys surge has left him narrowly ahead in national polling averages. But Cohn looks at all the polling and notes that this isnt borne out in the battlegrounds:
Why might this be happening? Cohn suggests this explanation:
snip//
Geoff Garin, the pollster for the Obama-allied Priorities USA, tells me that his polling shows that views of Romney are more fixed in the battlegrounds than nationally. In the swing states, voters are much more apt and able to quote back the main case against Romney, he tells me.
Garin adds that his polling has tested voter reaction to various arguments against Romney, such as the idea that his economic policies would favor the wealthy or burden the middle class. He says voter agreement with those suggestions is higher where the advertising has occurred, and adds: All the swing state advertising has had a measurable and lasting impact.
So perhaps Cohn is on to something: Obama may be doing better in the battlegrounds than he is nationally because views of Romney have hardened in these states to a much greater degree. It bears watching.
By Greg Sargent | 02:29 PM ET, 10/11/2012
rfranklin
(13,200 posts)except for the five votes on the Supreme Court.
Deep13
(39,154 posts)woolldog
(8,791 posts)MFM008
(19,818 posts)EVEN BETTER.
BeyondGeography
(39,377 posts)TroyD
(4,551 posts)He just posted about it.
Hopefully this trend will start to reverse itself if the swing state polling remains strong.
courseofhistory
(801 posts)and I'll take it! I think at this point he will win about .5% of the national vote. And he will win all but 2 of the swing states. It might get better as the next few weeks unfold.
Cha
(297,415 posts)says that?
Thanks babylonsistah!