WARNING: Stay Clear of Real Clear Politics!!!

[JaneQPublic]

I've been doing my share of hand wringing at the huge drop in RCP electoral count total for President Obama this week (from 269 down to 201).

Well, I finally got smart and did a little Wiki research on the website. Here are some findings:

-- The site's founders say their goal is to give readers "ideological diversity," describing themselves as frustrated with what they perceive as anti-conservative, anti-Christian media bias.

-- It was founded by business/corporate types: an options trader and an advertising executive.

-- Forbes Media LLC bought 51% ownership of it in 2007.

-- One of the founders outed himself as a conservative in a Human Events article, saying, " "we have a frustration all conservatives have", which is "the bias in media against conservatives, religious conservatives, [and] Christian conservatives."[

-- During the 2008 election, Nate Silver accused RCP of rigging their averages.

There you have it. No doubt their recent cratering of Obama's electoral count on their website was intended to be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Real Clear Politics, you are dead to me!!!

[Dawson Leery]

1. Obama is still leading in Ohio and PA.

Nevada is looking good too.
There is no way Obama is at 201 EV's.

[gcomeau]

2. I use them only...

...for their "Latest Polls" page. They are *very* well known for selectively manipulating which of those polls drop off their polling averages at what times in order to give the most favorable possible impression of how the Republican candidate is doing.

They've been doing it the entire election.

[Jim__]

3. Good advice. I wonder if we could get this thread pinned so it stays visible 'til after the election

[Blaukraut]

4. If you want less volatility and media horserace bullcrap, go to Princeton Election Consortium

http://election.princeton.edu/

They have Obama at 290 EV and Romney at 248. The daily posts and explanation of methodology are reassuring. Sam Wang goes by what he calls Meta Margin, which is explained in a chart on the site. As long as Obama stays above 1%, his reelection chances are good.

[JaneQPublic]

16. Thanks!

That website looks like a worthy replacement for the RCP garbage.

[Liberalynn]

23. Thank you for the link

[TroyD]

5. I think there is also an MA Senate Poll for Warren missing

RCP put up the 2 new MA Senate polls today showing Warren ahead, but there was a 3rd one earlier this week that has not been added yet.

Why?

[madamesilverspurs]

6. Will share this info.

Thanks!

[DURHAM D]

7. It is only good for opposition research.

iows - It will provide a heads up on what the right wing noise machine has planned.

[hrmjustin]

8. I look for the polls and their headline section. I also like to read their religion section as well.

But yes they are right-wing Fundies.

[progressivebydesign]

9. PLUS.. people don't realize that the polls they're freaking about have changed to "likely"

They are NOT interchangeable. There are far too many polling firms out there, the majority are republican-leaning. Plus the firms ALWAYS give Independents 1/3 of the number... even tho 1) independents ARE conservatives overall and 2) they do NOT represent 1/3 of the voters. Period.

But.. like every single election, as we get closer the media and the pundits start pushing these polls, to make it a horse race, and the repubs push this to make people not realize what a loser their guy is.

I mean when a POS firm like Gravis was the "Game changer" this week, that started off this narrative, it really makes you realize how screwed up the polling is. Many in the media took that POS Gravis to be the bellwether in the race, tipping to Romney.

The polls have NOT changed that much, the diff is that NOW the corporate media is pushing different methodology, as in "likely voters." Now, that term is not necessarily what you think it is. It's based on the polling firms idea of what makes someone likely. This is why they screwed up the polls so badly in 2008.

[EmeraldCityGrl]

10. K&R

[Drunken Irishman]

11. I avoid their articles like the plague and focus solely on the polls.

But they do rig their averages. I noticed they didn't add the YouGov poll that has Obama up on Romney (post-debate).

Sketchy ... sketchy.

[We People]

12. Wow, thanks for the heads up!

[bushisanidiot]

13. I notice that they have been selective in the polls that they drop from the poll averaging

they have been consistant with dropping favorable polls for the president while leaving others for the same time period in their poll of polls. this happens several times a week. they are definitely trying to f*ck with the numbers.

[JaneQPublic]

15. I noticed that, too!

More and more, their list of surveys in their averages would have Rasmussen and every other right-leaning operation, but none of the neutral, well-respected pollsters, to say nothing of PPP.

[Dawgs]

14. Old news. They've been outed for years. n/t

[Pauldg47]

17. Sounds like.....

.....Faux news "fair and balanced" to me.

[hrmjustin]

26. welcome to DU and yes their reporters are on fox all the time.

[ProSense]

18. The problem is not RCP only

it's the fact that all the poll averages include hack polling organizations. You can see all the polls laid out at RCP. Some polls are missing and other polls are posted to certain dates, altering the margins for that day.

The biggest problem are the hack polling organizations that are being given crediblity: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021515278

[Freddie]

19. I refuse to go there

I have their handy app, but still. I won't go there until Nov 7, or never if Romney wins. Won't be able to take the gloating.

[ffr]

20. RCP ...BANNED.

Done.

[Liberalynn]

21. You should send this to Bill Press

He's been saying that's where he goes to gauge the polls and that he sees it as reliable. I won't be going there anymore.

[JaneQPublic]

27. I learned about RCP from Tweety.

During the 2008 election, he was citing them all the time, so I thought it was the website the Dem political analysts relied on.

Tweety steered me wrong.

[Tx4obama]

22. Yes, BUT their Latest Polls page is a great resource to see ALL the new polls that are out

Here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

[tomm2thumbs]

24. your summary brings to light what my recent visits have suspected

when you smell it, you can tell....

and it stinks

[cstanleytech]

25. Seriously? The name alone wasnt enough of a clue? nt

[Up2Late]

28. Good to know, Thanks!

[bagimin]

29. Thank you

I did not know that.

[Ford_Prefect]

30. For accuracy go to Public Policy Polling. The obvious bias at Real Clear Politics is old news.

PPP has an outstanding record for calling it like it really is.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/

[procon]

31. Good catch!

There are other poll aggregators that you can try, like Pollster, or Nate Silver's Fivethirtyeight, and PollTracker at Talking Points Memo.

[babylonsister]

32. I go there, but only to see who's written what daily; they do share

some liberal pov's. Never for numbers though.

[grantcart]

33. Gravis Marketing thinks they are swell.

And they think he is a national pollster of impeccable repute.

One reinforces the other.

[golfguru]

34. RCP gives me the best summary of ALL polls and

link to every worthwhile article, both conservative and liberal.
It is the first web-site I go to when browsing political stories.

It is no wonder the most dominant political web site on internet.

[mzmolly]

35. I like their poll averages

though. That's pretty much, transparent, right?

That said, I had no idea Nate Silver had critique. Thanks for sharing.