2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumwhat part of "he is in until the convention" do people NOT understand?
its not just duers. the m$m clearly had their daily memo. (btw, today's word is MATH).
he is NOT leaving after sc. he is NOT leaving after super tuesday. hillary will have a good, but not insurmountable, lead after tuesday with only about 20% of the delegstes, leaving bernie with a very favorable calendar going forward.
there are two reasons they are pushing the "its over for bernie" so hard
1. they know after super tuesday, the calendar opens up for bernie, and he will regain delegate lead all the way to the nomination. they have to try and close this down while clinton has momentum from southern states, or its game over. they know this.
2. tptb know that some legal issues might be pending for hillary. they do NOT WANT bernie at the convention with his delegates, because they will have no choice but to nominate him. if they can pressure him to step aside, they are free to plug in an estsblishment hack at the convention.
fortunately, neither bernie not his supporters are going to be bullied into giving up the fight. he will start winning states after tuesday, and the trend of bernie up/clinton down will continue until either he gets the nomination, or she steps down due to legal problems, after which he will still get the nomination.
tune out the tripe, berners! we are going all the way!!
Shandris
(3,447 posts)Do ya smell that? I smell somethin' Bernin'!
roguevalley
(40,656 posts)Hillaryous!
Kittycat
(10,493 posts)Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)Trajan
(19,089 posts)With my average $27 donations .....
Go Bernie!
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)Hillary will be ahead in pledged delegates after super Tuesday by about 100. Bernie can not catch up or pass Hillary the way delegates are allocated by State but there is no reason for him to drop out
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)they peppered him with questions this morning about "math" when he was trying to talk about childhood poverty.
it was one of the most revolting things i have ever seen.
TTUBatfan2008
(3,623 posts)He won't be the nominee, but he brings important dialogue to the national conversation. As long as he has the fundraising, he should keep going.
Matariki
(18,775 posts)Notice that it's the day news that Sanders is beginning to lead in national polls that the whole "it's over", "he should drop out" memes start?
It's really amusing watching them cycle through one meme after another, a new one every day.
RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)In fact, we should all be making plans to be AT the convention.
Sure, they will call out the military on us, and set up detention camps for us, and the media will ignore all of us and focus only on the republican plants who are allowed near the convention center.
But armed with our cameras and wi-fi and twitter and fb, we will be heard and we may just beat the establishment and get Bernie nominated.
JohnnyLib2
(11,212 posts)Are there plans being made to disrupt the convention?
RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)The establishment is planning to subvert democracy.
They are planning to hand the nomination to Hillary.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Wow! Hyperbole much friend?
Jeez get a grip.
wyldwolf
(43,867 posts)Unless that means he'll show up as a spectator.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)wyldwolf
(43,867 posts)restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)Bubzer
(4,211 posts)John Poet
(2,510 posts)have TV or not.
Ha ha ha
farleftlib
(2,125 posts)That's my motto. Plus I like Bernie's chances. Hillary is unelectable. Bernie is trending steadily upward.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)It is going to be epic when he endorses Clinton.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)farleftlib
(2,125 posts)She'll be grooming his pack unicorns more like it.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Must see TV! Can't wait!
randome
(34,845 posts)Sorry. Can't help you.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]Treat your body like a machine. Your mind like a castle.[/center][/font][hr]
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)at least.
arcane1
(38,613 posts)And it will FAIL
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)firebrand80
(2,760 posts)But that doesn't mean the race wasn't over before that
ellennelle
(614 posts)she conceded in early june.
Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)Ironically, the day after the 40th anniversary of RFK's untimely death
jalan48
(13,870 posts)WillyT
(72,631 posts)PatrickforO
(14,576 posts)You bet. I'm there!
AlbertCat
(17,505 posts)..... and Clinton still lost the nomination!
Tarc
(10,476 posts)Once the losses pile up, Sanders will concede. This is just political reality.
it does appear there is some confusion here.
these delegates do not get racked up by states, winner take all. they are proportionally distributed, which means - as we have seen - that a 'win' does not matter that much. each candidate gets allotted delegates based on their proportional win.
which is why hillary was awarded 23, 9, and 20 delegates from IA, NH, and NV, respectively, to bernie's 21, 15, and 15.
right now, they're essentially tied, despite the 'outcome' in each state.
bernie could 'lose' SC, and still gain several delegates, the same way hillary 'lost' NH (big time) and got 9 delegates.
see how that works?
so, the political reality is, about 70% of delegates are still left after super tuesday, so even if hillary gains 70% of those, say, she'll still have to do a pretty strong sweep to maintain any lead she gets after next week, and the biggest prizes of CA and NY are yet to come. it's not at all clear she'll carry NY, despite her having been their senator; she lost 20 points between the last two polls.
see how this works? not so straightforward.
don't count your chickens before they hatch, lovey.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)And he will be damn lucky to come out of the Michigan Primary with anything even close to a negative 100.
There are no states that have a) a lot of delegates and b) that he will win handily enough to keep Hillary from gaining delegates left for him after Super Tuesday.
And Hillary will be the strong, strong favorite to win the remaining delegates rich states like FL, OH, IL, NC, NY (A total of 2 polls aggregated since the race started. 1 last May/June and 1 this January by different pollsters. Call it what you want, but she is up by over 20), NJ, PA, etc.
Simple math says that Bernie's best case scenario is a 50-50 split from Mid March until California. That will come nowhere near cutting it. And what is more, is still highly unlikely to happen.
Tarc
(10,476 posts)A loss is still a loss, I'm afraid. Whether it's edging in Nevada or the blowouts coming on Super Tuesday, the cumulative
Etymology[edit]
From cumulate +? -ive. Compare also French cumulatif, Italian cumulativo.
Adjective[edit]
cumulative ? comparative more cumulative, superlative most cumulative)
1. Incorporating all current and previous data up to the present or at the time of measuring or collating
2. That is formed by an accumulation of successive additions
3. That tends to accumulate
4. (finance) Having priority rights to receive a dividend that accrue until paid
effect of Clinton acquiring more delegates will be that her lead becomes insurmountable unless Sanders can win several primaries himself. Not only win but win decisively, so he can gain ground and not just tread water.
Let me know if I can help you out with this further. "Lovey".
erlewyne
(1,115 posts)Go Bernie!!!!!!!!
noretreatnosurrender
(1,890 posts)They understand they just resent having to do hard work because they believed it would be a coronation and it ticks them off that's it not. Remember these people are all establishment types. In the establishment world they expect you to be deferential to the grand poobah so that you can go along to get along. They don't understand people who actually stand by their principles. They truly believe that we're just going to hand this election to them on a silver platter in exchange for Hillary's promise to represent us. You know "chump change". Hillary will do everything possible to pretend that she's "with us" for obvious reasons but once she gets us out of her way she won't give us the time of day. Hell, she won't even give most of her supporters the time of day much less those of us who didn't swoon over her during the primary.
A lot of us dared to hope that we could elect the first Black President and we did it. Now a lot of those same people (not all) have the audacity to hope that we can elect a president who will continue the good things we've done but recognize that we have a serious problem in this country where power is concentrated in fewer and fewer hands. All the gains made over decades can be eliminated in the blink of an eye if these overlords decide it will make them more money. I don't want to go backwards. I want to go forward where all of our citizens lives can be improved and where we don't have to worry about some billionaire looney tune and his lackeys that can control our future because we've willingly given up our power to them for fear of rocking the boat.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)That meme has been debunked already.
He's toast after super tuesday. The media will stop covering him and the money will dry up.
Bernie lost the primaries in Nevada, betrayed by his own revolution.
It is what it is.