Where Does Sanders Go From Here?

[Doctor Jack]

These primaries are always about momentum and giving the impression that you are, at minimum, able to maintain viability for the long run. So far, Sanders has looked good. He nearly tied in Iowa, won New Hampshire in a landslide and lost Nevavda. But the next few weeks look rough.

South Carolina is a list cause, from the look of it. He's come back from large deficits but not this close to the voting.

On Super Tuesday

Clinton will win Arkansas, Georiga, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia.

Clinton has a pretty good lead in Oklahoma

Sanders will win Vermont

It is Tie in Massachusetts.


Sanders will win one, maybe two small States. Clinton 6-7 stares, some large ones.


After Super Tuesday, Michigan looks like Clinton on March 8th. The polls for March 15th are old and they are a bit far out but most are leaning towards Clinton with the info we have.


That doesn't look like a good situation. Sanders will have 2 or 3 wins in small States compared to Clinton's possible 10 or so. How does Clinton not run away with this thing in the next few days?

[thereismore]

1. Wait and see. This is an election unlike any other. Old assumptions do not necessarily apply. MSM

does not dictate the agenda.

[Doctor Jack]

7. He certainly has surprised thus far

But this is a tall order

[Hekate]

2. Back to the Senate, one would hope

JURY: Do I really need to point out this is a Democratic discussion board and we are encouraged to have our own opinions about a diversity of Democratic candidates? No candidates were harmed in the making of this post.

[arcane1]

3. He should give up now and let the coronation proceed undisturbed.

Sorry, no FUD bullshit for me.

[restorefreedom]

17. [phone] nt

[berniepdx420]

4. oklahoma and texas are narrowing.. you do know it's not winner take all in these primaries...

at the end of super tuesday only around 20% of vote will have been cast... but i digress...keep thinking that you're safe and sound... the storm is coming

[Cali_Democrat]

5. He'll drop out and endorse Hillary pretty soon. nt

[NurseJackie]

14. This is my hope as well. Although ...

... he's teased people by intimating that he's going to take it all the way to the convention floor (for all the good it will do when he doesn't have enough delegates). Frankly, I don't see any purpose in doing that.

But it may be that he was throwing "red meat" to his supporters to keep them motivated. Even the most enthusiastic supporters can see the same things that we're seeing, and it's pretty obvious that Bernie is not going to be the nominee.

In any case, when the numbers are no longer in his favor, and it's mathematically CERTAIN that he has NO CHANCE of securing enough delegates to win the nomination, he'll probably do the right thing and suspend his campaign and endorse Hillary. (I expect that this will be within the first 3-4 weeks following Super Tuesday.)

[BillZBubb]

16. Keep dreaming.

He knows he'll take a hit in SC and Super Tuesday. That's when mostly conservative states vote.

After that the field looks much more promising. As long as he can keep raising money, he's in and he has a chance.

[Cheese Sandwich]

6. We're going to South Carolina and Oklahoma And Arizona.. And North Dakota And New Mexico!We're going

We're going to California and Texas and New York! And we're going to South Dakota and Oregon and Washington and Michigan! And then we're going to Washington D.C. to take back the White House! Byyyyaaaaaahh!!!"

[SamKnause]

8. 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

[closeupready]

11. Brilliant minds think alike.

[Punkingal]

9. To the damn White House, that's where.

[noamnety]

10. woah, is the time travel machine finished?

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[0rganism]

13. he (and his supporters) will have to be very patient

i've seen quite a few people wishing Sanders would just quit, esp. after "Super Tuesday" which does look pretty rough for him

however, there are plenty of states where he's going to do a lot better that won't vote for a while

if he can pick up some delegates in the states he's about to lose (funny how 2nd place is good enough for Rubio and Cruz, and WTF Ben Carson is still running), and then continue picking up support nationally, he'll have a path to the nomination.

UNLESS the media decides it's all over on Wednesday and drops a blackout on his campaign coverage, then everything closes up real tight. this seems unlikely to me, as the political media does love a horse race

he should do quite well in the West coast states and some of the Midwest and Rocky Mtn states if his national numbers continue to improve as they have; the hard part for him will be staying in long enough to hit more states where he can win big.

there's a significant risk that his support levels may drop if he loses hard on Tuesday, which normally translates into less fundraising, but he appears to have plenty of supporters who will double down on him regardless.

[NurseJackie]

15. It would be a disservice to his supporters and donors to withdraw "too early".

Something like that should come only when it is mathematically certain that he will not be able to secure enough delegates to win the nomination. Dragging it out beyond that point would serve no real purpose.

[0rganism]

18. i agree - until this thing is decided through pledge delegates, he's kind of obliged

what's going to slow him down is a resurgence of the "inevitability" meme next week.

it was easier when things were kind of rolling his way after IA and NH, next week he's got to go back to being an improbable underdog.

the up-side for Sanders on that front is he's pretty comfortable playing that underdog role.

if his campaign relied on a few big donors, like Jeb!, a sequence of poor showings would put him in real trouble. as is, it could even play to his long-term advantage.

[NurseJackie]

19. The Jeb thing still baffles me ...

... not that I'm disappointed, but he might have had a small chance at a brokered convention. I think his heart wasn't in it and he was bending to family pressure to run ... and was only willing so to do when he thought it would be a cakewalk for him ... easy, effortless and pain free.

[0rganism]

20. seemed to me he was being forced into it

the clincher was the "please clap" line -- he knew he didn't want the job, he knew his audience wasn't super enthusiastic either, and he was only doing it for some weird family pride thing.

i'm a bit surprised he didn't drop out a week earlier

[demwing]

21. Bernie just has to survive March

April and onward look much better for him..

That being said, we could use a surprise win somewhere to rock the talking heads.

[Blue_In_AK]

22. Bernie has said he is going all the way to the convention,

and I certainly hope he does. A lot can happen between now and next summer.

[mythology]

23. He can remain in as long as he likes

If nothing else it gives him a platform to put out his message and if he loses the delegate count after a long primary, it may help to make it easier for his supporters to transition to Clinton (and the reverse would also be theoretically true) for the general election. Where as trying to shove him out now, might do the opposite.

As the 2008 primary season proved, a longer primary doesn't always mean losing the general election. Both candidates have strengths and weaknesses for a potential general election, but we aren't there yet.