Rasmussen: Decent number for Obama in NORTH CAROLINA (Romney 51, Obama 48)

[TroyD]

Being down by only 3 in NC is a good sign compared to the Gravis poll earlier in the week which had Obama down by 9. Hopefully Nate Silver will adjust his NC projection accordingly.

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Rasmussen Reports - Romney +3

Romney - 51

Obama - 48

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http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2012_north_carolina_president

[gcomeau]

1. That's the *highest* Rasmussen has had Obama in NC

...since APRIL. Their pre-debate poll of NC also had Obama at -3. So ZERO change.

[cheriemedium59]

4. Mitten and his flip flopping ways are catching up with him..

[ProSense]

5. Pre debate it was Romney +4. Before that it was +6 n/t

[Blue Yorker]

13. In June Romney was also ahead 6%

So highest since June.

[Mr.Turnip]

2. these state polls are going so off from the nationals now...

[Marsala]

6. Chait thinks it's because swing state voters have much more solid opinions due to months of ads

So they're more immune to sudden shifts from single events.

[TroyD]

8. Good!

Hope that theory proves to be validated.

[bamacrat]

3. So according to M$M that means its a dead heat right?

Seems its only tied or a dead heat or nail biter when PBO is ahead by 3 points or less. When its Rmoney, its a lead.

[WI_DEM]

7. Gravis is sh** that +9 poll is garbarge.

[TroyD]

9. Yes

That's basically what I was saying. I didn't phrase it that way when I wrote to Nate Silver, though.

Whether we like it or not, these pollsters like Gravis are bringing down Obama's average. And while that doesn't determine the election, it's still unfortunate.

Why doesn't a guy as smart as Nate realize that he shouldn't give Gravis such high credibility numbers in his model? (Nate gives Gravis 3 or 4 'bars' in his graph).

[hrmjustin]

10. how hard do you think that Obama will fight for NC?

[TroyD]

11. I don't know if Obama PERSONALLY can spend a lot of time in NC

He has to make locking down Ohio and keeping it out of Romney's hands his priority. As well as trying to maintain Florida, Virginia, Colorado etc.

I think Obama's TEAM in NC are the ones who will have to do most of the hard work for him.

[woolldog]

12. NC is just icing on the cake

If he wins it, it'll be part of a landslide. But he's not going to win NC and lose OH, VA, FL, etc. ie it's not going to save him in the electoral college, like Ohio, VA, or FL can. So no point spending time there.

[oswaldactedalone]

14. As hard as OFA is working in NC

I'd really be disappointed to see their efforts not bear fruit. Keep working folks to GOTV. It's all about the ground game now since Obama effed up so bad last week.