(not so) Super Tuesday projections

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

There have been several threads predicting Bernie's doom after Super Tuesday. Because of the vastly smaller number of states voting on March 1 this year, Super Tuesday is not nearly as significant and will certainly not mark the end of Bernie's campaign - not even close.

Here's my projections based on the best current polls I could find:

Feb 27
South Carolina (Clinton +26%): Clinton 34, Sanders 19

March 1
Alabama (Clinton +28%): Clinton 34, Sanders 19
American Samoa (No poll): Clinton 3, Sanders 3
Arkansas (Clinton +25%): Clinton 20, Sanders 12
Colorado (Sanders +6%): Clinton 30, Sanders 36
Georgia (Clinton +40%): Clinton 73, Sanders 29
Massachusetts (Sanders +3%): Clinton 43, Sanders 48
Minnesota (Clinton +3%): Clinton 39, Sanders 38
Oklahoma (Clinton +3%): Clinton 19, Sanders 19
Tennessee (Clinton +25%): Clinton 42, Sanders 25
Texas (Clinton +18%): Clinton 132, Sanders 90
Vermont (Sanders +76%): Clinton 1, Sanders 15
Virginia (Clinton +20%): Clinton 58, Sanders 37

There's a lot of assumptions in these numbers, but they should be at least in the ballpark.

This leaves the totals at 580 Clinton, 441 Sanders. At this point Sanders would need to win 52% of the remaining pledged delegates to beat Clinton in pledged delegates.

[Matariki]

1. "There's a lot of assumptions in these numbers"

You got one thing right.

[thereismore]

2. That's not too bad! Actually, Bernie could get 52% of the rest easily! Thank you for that. nt

[6chars]

3. this makes Georgia kind of the firewall

could be

[jeff47]

5. A firewall would prevent a victory or loss. According to current polls, Georgia does neither.

Flip the numbers in Georgia so we get the biggest swing possible. It's still the case that neither candidate has lost.

[6chars]

6. well, you know what i mean

huge margin for Clinton in Georgia for a state that is not one of the giants - flip it and the post Super Tuesday numbers are much more surmountable for Bernie. But I expect Hillary will do well in Georgia.

[Kittycat]

4. Thank you. I look forward to seeing

How the battleground/swing states play out. Particularly since it might give us all an early indication how independent voters may swing in the GE.

Eta: on the Republican side to Trump
On the Dem side to Sanders or Clinton.

[demwing]

7. Bookmarked for 3/2 review

[Flying Squirrel]

8. I had it 550-471

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1280120318

But it's probably gonna be somewhere between our two predictions.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

10. Yep

A 5% margin of error would put my numbers in the range 534 Clinton/487 Sanders to 626 Clinton/395 Sanders.

I'm cautiously optimistic that Sanders voters are underrepresented in the polls.

[jillan]

9. This is SO FLAWED! These are not Winner Take All states. Delegates are divided up proportionally

You cannot even guess what % of votes each candidate will get.

[SheenaR]

11. I'm on your side

All the OP did was take the number of delegates and forecast the percentages of the vote. I did the same below.

[jillan]

12. I don't think there is even one winner take all state on Super tues.

[SheenaR]

14. There isn't

Nor did they imply that

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

15. I'm not sure what you're talking about

My numbers show the delegates broken up proportionally based on the current poll numbers, not winner take all. The same technique predicted delegate allocation within 6% in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada.

[jillan]

20. Ok - I didn't realize that.

[SheenaR]

13. Sure why not

SC- Clinton 32-20
AL- Clinton 33-19
AS- Clinton 4-2
AR- Clinton 19-13
CO- Sanders 36-30
GA- Clinton 69-33
MA- Sanders 48-43
MN- Sanders 40-37
OK- Tie 19-19
TN- Clinton 38-29
TX- Clinton 120-102
VT- Sanders 16-0
VA- Clinton 52-43

Pledged to this point- Clinton 548 Sanders 471

I'm sure I'll be way off. Who the heck knows.

[Flying Squirrel]

17. Dang, you and I are within 2 delegates of each other

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1280120318

I said 550-471, but that was before Nevada and I thought it would be an 18-17 split there.

[SheenaR]

18. Ha!

That's awesome

I'd be ok with these results but hoping for better.

[JackRiddler]

16. Anticipating even that, 580-441, it is unbelievable...

that anyone would be calling for an end to the primary and the foreclosure of democracy in New York, California, and 34 other states!

What a fix is arranged in this system. And I mean any combination would be skewed in some fashion. A real democracy would be done to the same standard (all primaries) and in a fashion that allows time for unknowns to build but doesn't concentrate the primaries regionally like this.

[SheenaR]

19. Do you honestly think that's how they will report them?

The MSM will have it as 1017-457 or something

[Kittycat]

21. Bookmarking for later.

[Flying Squirrel]

22. A HRC supporter says 594-382

http://www.democraticunderground.com/110755527

Bad math, missing around 45 delegates there.

[Kentonio]

23. If it comes out with Bernie needing 52% of remaining delegates to win, I'll be ecstatic.

Once Super Tuesday is done, the roadmap looks considerably brighter for him.

[Kentonio]

25. She'll take Florida no doubt

But he's a point up in Ohio in the latest poll and we still have states like Cali and NY to come which have huge delegate counts and where he will hand her ass to her.

[Godhumor]

26. The +1 Ohio poll is non-aggregated

I.e. Pollster, RCP and 538 considered it a non-entity.

In Ohio, Silver predicts a Clinton win at 96% and Michigan at 98%. Currently, Sanders is down over 20 in NY.

Sanders won't be out after Super Tuesday, but he will have a gap that is going to be next to impossible, at best, to try and make up by the time March 15 rolls around.

[Kentonio]

27. We'll see. :)