Cook Political Report: Clinton could effectively clinch the race in a week's time

[Godhumor]

In the aftermath of Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are technically tied at 51 pledged delegates apiece. But that vastly understates the magnitude of Sanders's challenge between now and June. In fact, if Clinton performs as well on Super Tuesday (March 1) as her polling and results thus far suggest she will do, she could effectively clinch the Democratic nomination race in a week's time.

Unlike on the Republican side, about 15 percent of DNC delegates are unpledged "superdelegates" - a total of 712 elected officials and party leaders - who can support whomever they want at the convention. According to the Associated Press, Clinton currently leads Sanders 449 to 19 among this group, for an overall delegate lead of 500 to 70.

...


And, if Clinton were to claim a delegate lead of 996 to 492 out of Super Tuesday, that would mean Sanders would need to win 58 percent of the remaining delegates available just to break even. That would be nearly impossible, because unlike on the Republican side, there are no "winner-take-all" Democratic primaries at any point on the calendar. Moreover, demographically and ideologically, two of Sanders's best states - Iowa and New Hampshire - have already voted.

In short, it could very quickly become mathematically implausible for Sanders to come back from a large delegate deficit, and barring any major unexpected events, all signs point to Clinton being well "on pace" to secure the Democratic nomination.

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http://cookpolitical.com/story/9274

Also of note, Cook estimates Clinton performing at 124% of her targets to become nominee versus just 82% for Sanders.

[TheLogicalSong]

1. About three dozen states vote after Super Tuesday.

Why does the Clinton camp want to silence voters in 70% of the country?

[nc4bo]

2. It's about appearances......and decreasing voter enthusiasm. Ray Charles can even see that.nt

[mythology]

4. This isn't the Clinton campaign.

This is an independent analysis of the mathematical probabilities.

[brooklynite]

17. So your solution is she should tell people not to vote for her?

Drag things out till later?

This is an analysis of the actual political landscape. If facts make you unhappy, maybe you should avoid reading anything from a source that doesn't completely agree with you.

[workinclasszero]

3. Quoted for truth!

"In fact, if Clinton performs as well on Super Tuesday (March 1) as her polling and results thus far suggest she will do, she could effectively clinch the Democratic nomination race in a week's time."

[RBInMaine]

5. Clinton will win big Saturday, on Super Tuesday, and then it is DONE.

Sanders won't be able to recover from major losses over the next week. This is DONE.

[morningfog]

13. It will not be "DONE" then.

Bernie will split the delegate allocation and the race will still be close. I expect HIllary to have a slight lead in the delegate count, but a long way from the majority of the pledged delegates.

[NurseJackie]

6. This is what I keep saying ...

In short, it could very quickly become mathematically implausible for Sanders to come back from a large delegate deficit, and barring any major unexpected events, all signs point to Clinton being well "on pace" to secure the Democratic nomination.

... but many of Bernie's fans just don't want to listen (or maybe they just don't want to admit it). But, I'm tellin' ya ... the numbers don't lie.

Also of note, Cook estimates Clinton performing at 124% of her targets to become nominee versus just 82% for Sanders.

Yowza! That's certainly NOT the kind of news that Bernie's fans want to hear. (But it sure does please me.)

[begin_within]

7. I wish she'd leave the Democratic Party. She's destroying it.

It's now the Goldman Sachs party thanks to her.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

8. If you don't include the superdelegates, it's a different story

The numbers after super Tuesday will likely be in the neighborhood of 580 Clinton to 441 Sanders based on current polls. At that point he will need to average 52% of the remaining races to win.

[Dawgs]

9. This should be an OP.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

16. Done.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511329259

[morningfog]

12. That is the more accurate way to analyze it.

[msongs]

10. isn't it obvious? goldman sachs is paying voters in cash to vote for hillary lol nt

[morningfog]

11. He overstates it. It will be clinched when a candidate gets to 2026 pledged delegates.

The super delegates will NOT go to the candidate who does not have a majority of the pledged delegates.

The pledged delegate 50% +1 number is 2026. Unless and until a candidate gets to that number, it is not mathematically over.

As either candidate gets closer, the possibility will be come clearer.

[SidDithers]

14. DU rec...nt

Sid

[gcomeau]

15. Any argument that relies on SD support is complete nonsense. It just is.

The SDs absolutely WILL NOT give the nomination to anyone who does not win the pledged delegate race. It simply does not matter who they say they are supporting now, they will line up behind the eventual winner of the pledged race just like they did in 2008.

Anything else is suicide.

If Clinton wins more pledged, the SDs that say they're supporting her will go right on doing so.

If Bernie wins more pledged, there will be sufficient defections to uphold that result.

That's just the way it is. Pretending otherwise is either dishonest or clueless.