Oct. 10: Is Romney Leading Right Now?

[Coyotl]

October 11, 2012, 7:57 am23 Comments
Oct. 10: Is Romney Leading Right Now?
By NATE SILVER - http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/11/oct-10-is-romney-leading-right-now/

Polling since the debate in Denver last week has generally been very strong for Mitt Romney. But there have also been a couple of rays of hope for Democrats and President Obama.

One hypothesis is that Mr. Romney’s debate bounce was initially very strong, but has since faded some. There is a case to be made for this — but Wednesday’s polling made it weaker.

Although Mr. Romney’s standing declined by two points in the Gallup national tracking poll, he improved slightly in four other tracking surveys, from Rasmussen Reports, Ipsos, Investors’ Business Daily and the RAND Corporation. And the state polling data that came in on Wednesday was generally consistent with about a three-and-a-half-point bounce for Mr. Romney, similar to previous days.

There is some spotty evidence that Mr. Romney’s bounce may have been as large as five or six points in polls conducted in the 48 hours after the debate, so perhaps ....

[oswaldactedalone]

1. Doesn't look like it n/t

[MjolnirTime]

2. You wish.

[WI_DEM]

3. Well if he's going by tracking polls today's Ras has Obama leading by 1

after a tie yesterday. I think Nate is ok but he is no God. Yes, Romney got a bounce and yes, the bounce was strong on Thursday and Friday. Most tracking polls still include those days. Most of the state polling in key swing states still favor Obama. Tonight we begin another chapter with debates and I think Biden will do just fine.

[FBaggins]

4. No.

But it's too close for comfort.