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2016 Postmortem

jezebel

(1,772 posts) Thu Oct 11, 2012, 11:14 AM Oct 2012

Are there any states Kerry won in 04 that are in danger of going to Romney?

Ari Berman posted on twitter that if Obama wins Kerry states plus Ohio and Iowa he gets to 275.

I'm pretty sure Obama will win New Mexico which I think Bush won.
Who won NH in 2004?

Thanks.

3 replies

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Are there any states Kerry won in 04 that are in danger of going to Romney? (Original Post) jezebel Oct 2012 OP

Kerry won New Hamsphire. Mass Oct 2012 #1

Do you think Obama is more likely to lose Wisconsin than NH? Because of Ryan? jezebel Oct 2012 #2

I guess that depends on how you define "in danger". FBaggins Oct 2012 #3

Mass

(27,315 posts)

1. Kerry won New Hamsphire.

Reply to jezebel (Original post)

Thu Oct 11, 2012, 11:17 AM

Oct 2012

I cannot think of any state Kerry won and Obama will lose, except may be Winsconsin, who was very close in 2004 and may be very close this year too.

jezebel

(1,772 posts)

2. Do you think Obama is more likely to lose Wisconsin than NH? Because of Ryan?

Reply to Mass (Reply #1)

Thu Oct 11, 2012, 11:18 AM

Oct 2012

FBaggins

(26,754 posts)

3. I guess that depends on how you define "in danger".

Reply to jezebel (Original post)

Thu Oct 11, 2012, 11:21 AM

Oct 2012

PA, NH, MI and WI are at least theoretically in play... but I wouldn't expect to lose any of them unless things get worse.

Don't forget, however, that the 2010 census shifted several EVs from Kerry states to Bush states.

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