For the first time since voting started, Hillary's chance at nomination hits 90%

[Godhumor]

Chance to be Democratic nominee:
Hillary - 90%
Bernie - 10%

Chance to be President:
Hillary - 56%
Trump - 23%
Rubio - 13%
Bernie - 5%

Predictive markets look to have made up their mind for the nomination and have Hillary as the favorite for the presidency over every other challenger, Democratic or Republican, combined.

http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. Math and science have a bias in favor of reality!/nt

[leftofcool]

2. But, we've been told here that Trump would crush Hillary in the GE

[oasis]

8. Sanity will prevail. Major U.S. newspapers believe Trump is

an embarrassment. That won't change by the time of the GE.

[asuhornets]

3. And some say..

She's not trustworthy, transcripts are going to hurt her, and the emails!!

GO HILLARY!!!

[Betty Karlson]

4. Who cares? She is unelectable. eom

[onehandle]

9. Wow! You showed them! nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Res ipsa loquitur

Chance to be President:
Hillary - 56%
Trump - 23%
Rubio - 13%
Bernie - 5%

http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner

[Yavin4]

27. And Trump is?

How so? He's insulted every group in the nation.

[PonyUp]

29. Trump insulted immigrants and the Pope and got 46% of Latino vote in NV. n/t

[Yavin4]

33. What was the total number of Hispanics voting?

If it was 50 Hispanics, then that doesn't say much.

[kydo]

5. K&R!

[mainstreetonce]

6. She's tough

And unstoppable

Hill yes

[hoosierlib]

7. Ahh hubris...

[brooklynite]

12. C'mon -- 10c on the dollar!

Put some bets down; you'll make a fortune.

Maybe....

[onehandle]

13. Wow! You showed them! nt

[Phlem]

26. Wow. So did you!

[NurseJackie]

11. I love rational thinking. And numbers. And science. And statistics. And logic.

(And cheesecake.)

[Phlem]

28. !

[6chars]

14. First time ever a non-incumbent has wrapped it up so early

[Herman4747]

15. How can anyone take Predictwise seriously???

They have Marco Rubio at 13% chance to become president, Ted Cruz at 1%!!!
And, get this, Ted Cruz is actually tied according to Predictwise with Kasich at 1%. Kasich, who hasn't come close to winning anything.
Now, does any of that make sense to you?
Rubio may not even win his own state (FL, I believe he's currently behind); he's also behind in the delegate count to Cruz. Cruz will likely win Texas (a state with notably more people than Florida).
The point being made here is that Predictwise may not be, shall we say, something you would want to rely on.

[Godhumor]

16. They have a non-zero chance of being president

As do all active candidates. But, literally, no one is putting any money into them (Why the strike prices is so low). And it reflects investor belief that Cruz has no shot at actually being president.

Which, frankly, is pretty spot on thinking, in my opinion.

[Herman4747]

17. Okay, let me ask you this.

Your Predictwise has Marco Rubio at a 28% chance to win the nomination. Ted Cruz? 2%.
Does that sound logical to you?
Before you answer, know that Marco Rubio after 4 states is behind in the delegate count to Ted Cruz.
Know that one of the Super Tuesday primaries coming up is the primary in Texas. How well do you think Marco will perform there?
Also, do consider this too:
Cruz outraises Rubio in Super Tuesday states
from: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2016/02/23/ted-cruz-marco-rubio-super-tuesday-states-fundraising/80802330/

Really, guy, I encourage you to truly think deeply before posting anything else from Predictwise.

[NuclearDem]

19. Cruz is also running out of steam and is probably not long for the race.

And Rubio is going to end up being the last real challenger to Trump.

[Godhumor]

21. Because Rubio is in much better shape going forward then Cruz

And the establishment is coalescing around him.

Predictive Markets, analysts and investors look forward in what will happen, and their expectation is a reality-based one. Others will drop or e and unify support behind Rubio in an effort to prevent a Trump victory for their nomination.

It is the same reason Bernie's chances did not increase after NH; the markets simply didn't see it as a big enough deal to change the race. There is no expectation that Cruz has the ability to upend the race from Trump vs Rubio.

[Herman4747]

24. CRUZ IS ACTUALLY AHEAD OF RUBIO IN THE DELEGATE COUNT...

...do you understand that? Do you further understand that the Texas primary is March 1st? I provided you a post indicating that Ted Cruz is AHEAD OF RUBIO NOT BEHIND in fundraising for the March 1st primaries. Did you think that was of no value?

The Florida primary is March 15th I believe. But Rubio is behind, and that state is (I believe) winner take all. That would mean no delegates for Rubio, all for Trump.

FOR THE LAST TIME, ANY ORGANIZATION THAT GIVES MARCO RUBIO A 28% CHANCE OF WINNING THE GOP NOMINATION, WHILE GIVING TED CRUZ JUST A 2% CHANCE, IS NOT AN ORGANIZATION TO BE TRUSTED!!!

And explain to us all just who these "investors" are that you mention in your post (#21) are? Can you do that? What precisely are they "investing" in? Tell us about them and how they acquired their expertise on elections.

[Phlem]

30. Dude, save it. There is no logic in supporting Hillary and they don't care

what anyone says about it. Thirdway, neoconservative, middle class killing, complicit and direct dishonesty, child labor, war profiteering, corporate shill, it's all good!

But Bernie is much worse right?

[Godhumor]

32. You forgot corporatist and oligarch

But good effort nonetheless.

[Godhumor]

31. Sure thing

And, again, Rubio will be in this race much longer than Cruz. Much longer, regardless of Texas.

But, since you have some issues with predictive markets, you can start here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251778205

[Herman4747]

37. I certainly do NOT have an issue with predictive markets...

I do have an issue with the accuracy of Predictwise. You could be most helpful here if you would simply define for me the "investors" that you spoke.
Go ahead, I dare you.

[dsc]

34. It does make sense

Cruz has shown himself to be incapable of winning the voters that were supposed to be carrying him to the nomination (evangelicals and in particular southern evangelicals). Cruz finished third in SC which has the highest concentration of evangelicals in the primaries. Rubio is clearly the establishment choice which is his lane. I think Trump is the most likely winner but Rubio is the only other GOP candidate with a chance.

[Herman4747]

35. Perhaps I truly should listen to Phlem but anyway...

... you write: "but Rubio is the only other GOP candidate with a chance."

So, you are able to see what all those donating hard-earned cash to Ted Cruz are not able to see:

But in perhaps the strongest measure of Cruz’s outreach to early voting states, the Texas senator outraised Rubio in the 11 states that will stage Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses next week, a USA TODAY analysis of new campaign-finance reports shows.

In January, Cruz collected more than $1.8 million from these states, many of them clustered in the South. By comparison, donors from those states gave less than half that amount — about $774,000 — to Rubio’s campaign last month.

Over the entire election cycle, Cruz has raised more than three times the amount that Rubio has collected from the March 1 states.

-- http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2016/02/23/ted-cruz-marco-rubio-super-tuesday-states-fundraising/80802330/

You write: "Cruz finished third in SC which has the highest concentration of evangelicals in the primaries." Cruz finished a whopping 0.2% behind Rubio, and that makes all the difference. Oh, and in winning the senate race southern state of TEXAS, don't you think that Mr. Cruz received a substantial portion of evangelicals, especially given that he first had to win a contested primary?

[Doctor_J]

18. Splendid. I am looking forward to

my health insurance continuing to rise, private prisons continuing to rake in more money, TPP (NAFTA on steroids) depressing wages more, charter schools completely obliterating public schools, cuts to SS benefits ("strengthening" social security), college grads continuing to finish with oppressive debt, and a middle east doctrine that will make Obama look like Gandhi.

And, of course, 4 years of investigations into e-mails, Benghazi, and other peccadillos.

Incremental steps!

[corkhead]

22. The good news is that hopefully come November both parties will be irreparably broken

and we can get on with building a new political party that actually represents its constituents instead of having two parties of greed and war to choose between.

[SidDithers]

20. Bah. You and your "math"...

Sid

[LexVegas]

23. Math and statistics. nt

[Alfresco]

25. As it should be.

[AZ Progressive]

36. ...just to crash and burn in the general election and give us Trump as president

A really short victory for Hillary if she makes it to the GE.

[ismnotwasm]

38. K&R